Jax State at Louisiana Tech
Tuesday, November 17, 2026, 7:30 PM ET at Thomas Assembly Center. Jax State our rank 267 · 1-2; Louisiana Tech our rank 210 · 2-1.
Who will win Jax State vs Louisiana Tech?
The model gives Louisiana Tech a 70% chance to beat Jacksonville State, with a projected score of Louisiana Tech 74, Jax State 68.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 70–80% have been right 74.5% of the time in 14,414 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Louisiana Tech | |||||
| WengerF · 24 min | 11.8 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 10+ 61% | |
| TylerG · 25 min | 9.3 | 2.4 | 2.7 | 10+ 43% | |
| FennerG · 26 min | 9.2 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 10+ 42% | |
| Francis Jr.F · 19 min | 7.4 | 4.8 | 1.0 | 5+ 67% | |
| Jax State | |||||
| StiemkeG · 31 min | 14.8 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 15+ 48% | |
| Lockett Jr.G · 32 min | 12.2 | 2.9 | 3.8 | 10+ 63% | |
| CunninghamF · 27 min | 10.2 | 2.4 | 1.8 | 10+ 49% | |
| CroleyF · 24 min | 7.0 | 5.3 | 0.6 | 5+ 65% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Leon Horner: Jax State 27%Louisiana Tech 73%
The white mark is the call with him: Louisiana Tech 70%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Louisiana Tech without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jax State | ||||
| Leon Horner | 1.1 | 73% | +3 | 67–74 |
Change is in Louisiana Tech's win chance, in points. Scores read Jax State, then Louisiana Tech. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Jax State 1-2WLL
- Nov 11L 46-92at HoustonDidn't cover +33.5 · Over 136.5
- Nov 5L 80-83at South AlabamaCovered +4.5 · Over 139.5
- Nov 2W 123-59vs LaGrange
- Last 3
- 1–2, scoring 83.0 and allowing 78.0
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–1
- Totals, this season
- 2 over, 0 under
Louisiana Tech 2-1WWL
- Nov 9L 50-90at LSUDidn't cover +29.5 · Under 148.5
- Nov 5W 76-17vs Arkansas Monticello
- Nov 2W 85-75vs Kent State
- Last 3
- 2–1, scoring 70.3 and allowing 60.7
- Against the spread, this season
- 0–1
- Totals, this season
- 0 over, 1 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Jax State | Louisiana Tech | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 99.8 277th | 101.7 233rd |
| Points allowed per 100 | 111.0 261st | 108.6 188th |
| Possessions a game | 69.6 302nd | 69.3 322nd |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 49.6% 247th | 49.9% 228th |
| Opponents' shooting | 50.1% 153rd | 50.7% 201st |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 17.9% 162nd | 19.5% 317th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 30.4% 263rd | 33.1% 99th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.24 273rd | 0.27 149th |
The widest gap: Louisiana Tech's defense (188th) against Jax State's offense (277th), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Jax State 32, Louisiana Tech 35
- First-half margin
- Louisiana Tech by 3.3
- First-half points, both teams
- 66.5
- Projected second half
- Jax State 36, Louisiana Tech 39
- Second-half points, both teams
- 75.3
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Jax State, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 3 · 39.7 scored, 30.7 allowed
- Louisiana Tech, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 3 · 33.0 scored, 29.0 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Jax State
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Lockett Jr.G | 32 | 12.2 | 2.9 | 3.8 | 1.9 |
| 10+ pts 63% · 3+ reb 51% · 4+ ast 51% | |||||
| Jordan StiemkeG | 31 | 14.8 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 2.9 |
| 15+ pts 48% · 4+ reb 51% · 3+ threes 50% | |||||
| Naas CunninghamF | 27 | 10.2 | 2.4 | 1.8 | 1.9 |
| 10+ pts 49% · 2+ ast 51% · 2+ threes 50% | |||||
| Ethan CroleyF | 24 | 7.0 | 5.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 65% · 5+ reb 57% · 1+ threes 19% | |||||
| Leon HornerG | 23 | 7.0 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 65% · 3+ reb 56% · 1+ threes 44% | |||||
| Kash PolkF | 15 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 24% · 3+ reb 53% | |||||
| Alijah CurryF | 14 | 3.9 | 2.0 | 0.3 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 35% · 2+ reb 55% · 1+ threes 36% | |||||
| Ma'Shy HillF | 13 | 3.2 | 2.1 | 0.3 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 27% · 2+ reb 57% | |||||
Louisiana Tech
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaylen FennerG | 26 | 9.2 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.6 |
| 10+ pts 42% · 4+ reb 55% · 1+ threes 45% | |||||
| Jay TylerG | 25 | 9.3 | 2.4 | 2.7 | 1.4 |
| 10+ pts 43% · 3+ reb 40% · 3+ ast 49% | |||||
| Braylon WengerF | 24 | 11.8 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 1.6 |
| 10+ pts 61% · 5+ reb 45% · 2+ threes 45% | |||||
| Deven BatesG | 21 | 6.0 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 1.0 |
| 5+ pts 56% · 4+ reb 41% · 2+ ast 50% | |||||
| Adam BoydG | 19 | 6.2 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 58% · 2+ reb 45% · 2+ ast 49% | |||||
| Iyran Francis Jr.F | 19 | 7.4 | 4.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 67% · 5+ reb 49% · 2+ ast 27% | |||||
| Kyran TilleyG | 19 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 41% · 2+ reb 56% · 1+ threes 43% | |||||
| Ethan BlackmonF | 17 | 6.8 | 4.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 63% · 5+ reb 45% · 2+ ast 21% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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