Probable Stats
Menu
Get predictions by email
Men'sWomen's

Probable Stats / Men's / Saturday, November 14

Men'sWomen's
Get predictions by email

Louisiana Tech at Nicholls

Saturday, November 14, 2026, 8:00 PM ET at David R. Stopher Gymnasium. Louisiana Tech our rank 210 · 2-1; Nicholls our rank 231 · 1-2.

Who will win Louisiana Tech vs Nicholls?

From this morning's ratings; logged before tip-off.

The model gives Nicholls a 53% chance to beat Louisiana Tech, with a projected score of Nicholls 72, Louisiana Tech 71.

To winNicholls 53%Louisiana Tech 47%
Projected score71–72Louisiana Tech, then Nicholls
Margin1.0Nicholls · no line posted
Total142.1no line posted
First half33–34Nicholls ahead 50%
Louisiana Tech by 30by 20by 10Evenby 10by 20Nicholls by 30Model: Nicholls by 1.0Louisiana Tech by 30by 10by 10Nicholls by 30Model: Nicholls by 1.0

Half of games like thisFour in five

Calls of 50–60% have been right 55.4% of the time in 16,654 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.

Players to watch

our projection, not a sportsbook's
PlayerPtsRebAstLast gamesChance of
Nicholls
DentF · 31 min12.45.81.010+ 65%
Cockrill IIIG · 24 min11.22.42.510+ 56%
WinborneG · 25 min9.21.91.210+ 42%
SharpG · 25 min8.93.64.310+ 40%
Louisiana Tech
WengerF · 25 min11.54.41.310+ 58%
TylerG · 25 min9.12.32.610+ 41%
FennerG · 26 min8.94.01.110+ 40%
Francis Jr.F · 19 min7.14.61.05+ 65%

Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line

Play-by-play

    Team numbers

    Form

    Each team's last five before this game

    Louisiana Tech 2-1WWL

    1. Nov 9L 50-90at LSUDidn't cover +29.5 · Under 148.5
    2. Nov 5W 76-17vs Arkansas Monticello
    3. Nov 2W 85-75vs Kent State
    Last 3
    2–1, scoring 70.3 and allowing 60.7
    Against the spread, this season
    0–1
    Totals, this season
    0 over, 1 under

    Nicholls 1-2WLL

    1. Nov 10L 63-77at TulaneDidn't cover +9.5 · Under 152.5
    2. Nov 6L 63-70at UABCovered +15.5 · Under 158.5
    3. Nov 2W 110-56vs North American
    Last 3
    1–2, scoring 78.7 and allowing 67.7
    Against the spread, this season
    1–1
    Totals, this season
    0 over, 2 under

    The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.

    Offense against defense

    Adjusted for opponents · rank of 365
    Louisiana TechNicholls
    Points scored per 100 possessions101.7 233rd99.7 279th
    Points allowed per 100108.6 188th107.9 169th
    Possessions a game69.3 322nd70.9 171st
    Shooting (effective field-goal %)49.9% 228th48.0% 333rd
    Opponents' shooting50.7% 201st49.1% 74th
    Turnovers, share of possessions19.5% 317th17.1% 76th
    Offensive rebounds, share of misses33.1% 99th31.1% 221st
    Free throws per shot0.27 149th0.24 268th

    The widest gap: Louisiana Tech's defense (188th) against Nicholls's offense (279th), of 365 teams.

    First half

    Projected from the full-game numbers

    Ahead at halftime

    Projected halftime score
    Louisiana Tech 33, Nicholls 34
    First-half margin
    Nicholls by 0.5
    First-half points, both teams
    66.7
    Projected second half
    Louisiana Tech 38, Nicholls 38
    Second-half points, both teams
    75.4
    Tied at the half
    4%
    Louisiana Tech, first halves so far
    Led 2 of 3 · 33.0 scored, 29.0 allowed
    Nicholls, first halves so far
    Led 1 of 3 · 35.7 scored, 36.0 allowed

    Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard

    Player projections

    Each player's projected line for this game

    Louisiana Tech

    PlayerMinPtsRebAst3s
    Jaylen FennerG268.94.01.10.6
    10+ pts 40% · 4+ reb 53% · 1+ threes 44%
    Jay TylerG259.12.32.61.4
    10+ pts 41% · 2+ reb 61% · 3+ ast 46%
    Braylon WengerF2511.54.41.31.6
    10+ pts 58% · 5+ reb 43% · 2+ threes 44%
    Deven BatesG215.83.31.71.0
    5+ pts 54% · 3+ reb 58% · 2+ ast 47%
    Adam BoydG196.01.61.60.5
    5+ pts 56% · 2+ reb 43% · 2+ ast 46%
    Iyran Francis Jr.F197.14.61.00.2
    5+ pts 65% · 5+ reb 47% · 2+ ast 25%
    Kyran TilleyG194.42.01.20.6
    5+ pts 39% · 2+ reb 55% · 1+ threes 42%
    Ethan BlackmonF176.54.30.80.2
    5+ pts 61% · 4+ reb 58% · 2+ ast 19%

    Nicholls

    PlayerMinPtsRebAst3s
    AJ DentF3112.45.81.01.0
    10+ pts 65% · 6+ reb 50% · 1+ threes 57%
    Christian WinborneG259.21.91.22.1
    10+ pts 42% · 2+ reb 52% · 2+ threes 55%
    Sheridan SharpG258.93.64.30.4
    10+ pts 40% · 4+ reb 45% · 5+ ast 42%
    Doyel Cockrill IIIG2411.22.42.51.7
    10+ pts 56% · 3+ ast 44% · 2+ threes 47%
    Hunter CarterG174.72.50.80.8
    50% to play · 5+ pts 43% · 3+ reb 44% · 1+ threes 53%
    Arop AropF164.73.90.20.2
    5+ pts 43% · 4+ reb 51% · 1+ threes 17%
    Junior SileuF152.62.60.50.1
    5+ pts 21% · 3+ reb 44%
    Jared TaylorF124.22.30.50.2
    5+ pts 38% · 2+ reb 61% · 1+ threes 15%

    Missed the last game: Hunter Carter (20 min a game).

    Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done

    Why the model sees it this way

    The game in numbers

    The matchup

    More games on Sat, Nov 14

    All games
    1. 3:30 PMprojected 74-80LSU at Gonzaga, men's: game page
    2. 6 PMprojected 72-78Colorado at Providence, men's: game page
    3. 7 PMprojected 77-78Lipscomb at W Carolina, men's: game page
    4. 7 PMprojected 70-77Washington at Utah, men's: game page
    5. 8:30 PMprojected 75-77Furman at Belmont, men's: game page
    6. 10 PMprojected 81-79New Mexico at Santa Clara, men's: game page
    Louisiana Tech next: vs Jax State, Tue, Nov 17 · 70%Nicholls next: at Ole Miss, Tue, Nov 17 · 1%Louisiana Tech: schedule and oddsNicholls: schedule and odds