Who will win Nicholls vs Ole Miss?
The model gives Ole Miss a 99% chance to beat Nicholls, with a projected score of Ole Miss 87, Nicholls 59.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 95.4% of the time in 11,767 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Ole Miss | |||||
| ClarkG · 26 min | 15.2 | 2.9 | 5.2 | 15+ 50% | |
| StephensonG · 22 min | 12.8 | 5.0 | 1.1 | 15+ 35% | |
| PinkinsG · 25 min | 11.5 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 10+ 59% | |
| TrouetF · 19 min | 9.2 | 5.6 | 1.4 | 10+ 42% | |
 Nicholls | |||||
| DentF · 28 min | 9.6 | 4.5 | 0.7 | 10+ 45% | |
| Cockrill IIIG · 23 min | 9.0 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 10+ 41% | |
| WinborneG · 24 min | 7.4 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 5+ 68% | |
| SharpG · 24 min | 7.1 | 2.9 | 3.0 | 5+ 66% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Adam Clark: Nicholls 2%Ole Miss 98%
The white mark is the call with him: Ole Miss 99%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Ole Miss without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ole Miss | ||||
| Adam Clark | 3.8 | 98% | −1 | 60–85 |
| Patton Pinkins | 3.1 | 99% | 0 | 60–85 |
| Ilias Kamardine | 3.0 | 99% | 0 | 60–85 |
| Santiago Trouet | 2.7 | 99% | 0 | 60–85 |
Change is in Ole Miss's win chance, in points. Scores read Nicholls, then Ole Miss. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Nicholls 1-2WLL
- Nov 10L 63-77at TulaneDidn't cover +9.5 · Under 152.5
- Nov 6L 63-70at UABCovered +15.5 · Under 158.5
- Nov 2W 110-56vs North American
- Last 3
- 1–2, scoring 78.7 and allowing 67.7
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–1
- Totals, this season
- 0 over, 2 under
Ole Miss 3-0WWW
- Nov 10W 91-51vs SE LouisianaCovered −26.5 · Under 146.5
- Nov 6W 92-60vs C ArkansasCovered −17.5 · Under 154.5
- Nov 2W 99-58vs Alcorn St
- Last 3
- 3–0, scoring 94.0 and allowing 56.3
- Against the spread, this season
- 2–0
- Totals, this season
- 0 over, 2 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Nicholls | Ole Miss | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 99.7 279th | 115.8 44th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 107.9 169th | 93.6 15th |
| Possessions a game | 70.9 171st | 71.1 143rd |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 48.0% 333rd | 52.6% 57th |
| Opponents' shooting | 49.1% 74th | 49.4% 104th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 17.1% 76th | 16.4% 25th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 31.1% 221st | 31.5% 198th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.24 268th | 0.24 288th |
The widest gap: Ole Miss's defense (15th) against Nicholls's offense (279th), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Nicholls 26, Ole Miss 42
- First-half margin
- Ole Miss by 15.5
- First-half points, both teams
- 68.2
- Projected second half
- Nicholls 32, Ole Miss 45
- Second-half points, both teams
- 77.1
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Nicholls, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 3 · 35.7 scored, 36.0 allowed
- Ole Miss, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 3 · 49.3 scored, 25.0 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Nicholls
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AJ DentF | 28 | 9.6 | 4.5 | 0.7 | 0.8 |
| 10+ pts 45% · 5+ reb 45% · 1+ threes 51% | |||||
| Christian WinborneG | 24 | 7.4 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 1.7 |
| 5+ pts 68% · 2+ reb 42% · 2+ threes 47% | |||||
| Sheridan SharpG | 24 | 7.1 | 2.9 | 3.0 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 66% · 3+ reb 51% · 3+ ast 55% | |||||
| Doyel Cockrill IIIG | 23 | 9.0 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 1.4 |
| 10+ pts 41% · 2+ reb 53% · 2+ ast 50% | |||||
| Hunter CarterG | 17 | 3.9 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.7 |
| 50% to play · 5+ pts 34% · 2+ reb 57% · 1+ threes 48% | |||||
| Arop AropF | 17 | 4.1 | 3.4 | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 36% · 4+ reb 42% · 1+ threes 15% | |||||
| Junior SileuF | 16 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 19% · 3+ reb 40% | |||||
| Jared TaylorF | 13 | 4.0 | 2.2 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 36% · 2+ reb 59% · 1+ threes 15% | |||||
Missed the last game: Hunter Carter (20 min a game).
Ole Miss
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam ClarkG | 26 | 15.2 | 2.9 | 5.2 | 0.7 |
| 15+ pts 50% · 3+ reb 51% · 1+ threes 50% | |||||
| Patton PinkinsG | 25 | 11.5 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 1.3 |
| 10+ pts 59% · 2+ reb 56% · 2+ ast 51% | |||||
| Ilias KamardineG | 25 | 7.9 | 2.4 | 4.4 | 1.1 |
| 10+ pts 33% · 3+ reb 41% · 5+ ast 44% | |||||
| Corey StephensonG | 22 | 12.8 | 5.0 | 1.1 | 1.0 |
| 15+ pts 35% · 5+ reb 52% · 1+ threes 60% | |||||
| Roman SiulepaF | 19 | 6.7 | 4.8 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 62% · 5+ reb 49% · 1+ threes 41% | |||||
| Santiago TrouetF | 19 | 9.2 | 5.6 | 1.4 | 0.2 |
| 10+ pts 42% · 6+ reb 47% · 2+ ast 41% | |||||
| Ben HenshallG | 19 | 7.6 | 2.2 | 2.7 | 1.1 |
| 5+ pts 69% · 2+ reb 60% · 3+ ast 49% | |||||
| Christian BrownF | 12 | 6.2 | 3.5 | 0.4 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 57% · 4+ reb 44% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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