Who will win Denver vs Kansas?
The model gives Kansas a >99% chance to beat Denver, with a projected score of Kansas 92, Denver 57.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 95.4% of the time in 11,767 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Kansas | |||||
| WhiteG · 26 min | 18.8 | 5.6 | 1.5 | 20+ 43% | |
| StokesG · 25 min | 14.1 | 5.4 | 2.8 | 15+ 43% | |
| Kaufman-RennF · 23 min | 13.5 | 6.5 | 3.1 | 15+ 39% | |
| Blyden Jr.G · 25 min | 11.8 | 2.4 | 3.4 | 10+ 61% | |
 Denver | |||||
| JohnsonG · 32 min | 14.1 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 15+ 43% | |
| WysockiF · 28 min | 7.6 | 4.1 | 0.6 | 10+ 31% | |
| MartinG · 23 min | 7.6 | 3.1 | 0.7 | 5+ 69% | |
| Wickstrom StumerF · 24 min | 4.9 | 4.2 | 0.9 | 5+ 45% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Trey Kaufman-Renn: Denver <1%Kansas >99%
The white mark is the call with him: Kansas >99%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Kansas without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas | ||||
| Trey Kaufman-Renn | 5.1 | >99% | 0 | 59–89 |
| Tre White | 4.9 | >99% | 0 | 59–89 |
| Leroy Blyden Jr. | 3.8 | >99% | 0 | 59–90 |
| Keanu Dawes | 2.5 | >99% | 0 | 58–91 |
| Denver | ||||
| Carson Johnson | 0.9 | >99% | 0 | 56–92 |
Change is in Kansas's win chance, in points. Scores read Denver, then Kansas. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Denver 0-2LL
- Nov 7L 60-64at UC RiversideDidn't cover +1.5 · Under 156.5
- Nov 2L 68-75at Wisconsin
- Last 2
- 0–2, scoring 64.0 and allowing 69.5
- Against the spread, this season
- 0–1
- Totals, this season
- 0 over, 1 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Denver | Kansas | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 102.0 222nd | 120.5 9th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 109.2 199th | 87.4 1st |
| Possessions a game | 71.1 143rd | 71.8 79th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 50.8% 162nd | 54.2% 11th |
| Opponents' shooting | 47.4% 20th | 46.7% 10th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 18.8% 263rd | 18.3% 211th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 30.8% 245th | 32.7% 123rd |
| Free throws per shot | 0.26 159th | 0.24 277th |
The widest gap: Kansas's defense (1st) against Denver's offense (222nd), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Denver 25, Kansas 45
- First-half margin
- Kansas by 19.3
- First-half points, both teams
- 69.7
- Projected second half
- Denver 32, Kansas 47
- Second-half points, both teams
- 78.9
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Denver, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 2 · 29.5 scored, 33.0 allowed
- Kansas, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 3 · 41.7 scored, 27.0 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Denver
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson JohnsonG | 32 | 14.1 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 1.8 |
| 15+ pts 43% · 2+ ast 43% · 2+ threes 48% | |||||
| Shaun WysockiF | 28 | 7.6 | 4.1 | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| 10+ pts 31% · 4+ reb 55% · 1+ threes 41% | |||||
| Oskar Wickstrom StumerF | 24 | 4.9 | 4.2 | 0.9 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 45% · 4+ reb 56% · 1+ threes 38% | |||||
| Kam MartinG | 23 | 7.6 | 3.1 | 0.7 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 69% · 3+ reb 55% · 1+ threes 57% | |||||
| Charlie DimmockF | 19 | 4.5 | 3.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 41% · 3+ reb 57% · 1+ threes 18% | |||||
| Logan ThreattG | 18 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 37% · 2+ reb 44% · 1+ threes 47% | |||||
| Harry BatesF | 17 | 4.4 | 3.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 39% · 3+ reb 56% · 1+ threes 21% | |||||
| Jordan RogersF | 16 | 3.6 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 32% · 3+ reb 42% · 1+ threes 41% | |||||
Kansas
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tre WhiteG | 26 | 18.8 | 5.6 | 1.5 | 2.1 |
| 20+ pts 43% · 6+ reb 46% · 2+ threes 56% | |||||
| Leroy Blyden Jr.G | 25 | 11.8 | 2.4 | 3.4 | 1.4 |
| 10+ pts 61% · 3+ reb 40% · 4+ ast 43% | |||||
| Taylen KinneyG | 25 | 7.2 | 2.7 | 3.7 | 1.1 |
| 5+ pts 66% · 3+ reb 46% · 4+ ast 49% | |||||
| Tyran StokesG | 25 | 14.1 | 5.4 | 2.8 | 1.4 |
| 15+ pts 43% · 6+ reb 44% · 3+ ast 51% | |||||
| Trey Kaufman-RennF | 23 | 13.5 | 6.5 | 3.1 | 0.2 |
| 15+ pts 39% · 7+ reb 46% · 3+ ast 58% | |||||
| Melvin Council Jr.G | 20 | 8.6 | 3.4 | 4.4 | 0.8 |
| 49% to play · 10+ pts 38% · 5+ ast 45% · 1+ threes 50% | |||||
| Keanu DawesF | 17 | 6.7 | 6.3 | 1.4 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 62% · 7+ reb 44% · 1+ threes 47% | |||||
| Christian ReevesC | 16 | 9.2 | 6.3 | 0.3 | 0.0 |
| 10+ pts 42% · 6+ reb 56% | |||||
Missed the last game: Melvin Council Jr. (22 min a game).
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
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