Who won Denver vs Wisconsin?
Final: Wisconsin 75, Denver 68. Before tip-off the model gave Wisconsin a 99% chance to win, with a projected margin of 29.8 points for Wisconsin. Eian Elmer scored 18 for Wisconsin; Carson Johnson had 27 for Denver.
Prediction made that morning; page updated November 13, 2026.
The call
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 95.4% of the time in 11,767 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip.
The game without one player
Without Nolan Winter: Denver 2%Wisconsin 98%
The white mark is the call with him: Wisconsin 99%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Wisconsin without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Wisconsin | ||||
| Nolan Winter | 3.8 | 98% | −1 | 58–84 |
| Braeden Carrington | 3.3 | 98% | −1 | 58–85 |
| Austin Rapp | 2.7 | 99% | 0 | 58–85 |
| Eian Elmer | 2.4 | 99% | 0 | 58–85 |
 Denver | ||||
| Carson Johnson | 0.9 | 99% | 0 | 56–87 |
Change is in Wisconsin's win chance, in points. Scores read Denver, then Wisconsin. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Play-by-play
Team numbers
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesWin probability
Game chat
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Why the model sees it this way
The game in numbers
The matchup
Form
Denver
No games yet this season: this is its first.
Wisconsin
No games yet this season: this is its first.
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Denver | Wisconsin | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 102.0 222nd | 113.6 63rd |
| Points allowed per 100 | 109.2 199th | 96.3 29th |
| Possessions a game | 71.1 143rd | 71.3 121st |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 50.8% 162nd | 50.4% 189th |
| Opponents' shooting | 47.4% 20th | 46.9% 15th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 18.8% 263rd | 17.9% 166th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 30.8% 245th | 32.3% 146th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.26 159th | 0.24 297th |
The widest gap: Wisconsin's defense (29th) against Denver's offense (222nd), of 365 teams.
First half
Wisconsin led at the half, as projected. The margin was off by 2.4 points and the total by 7.1.
- At halftime
- Denver 30, Wisconsin 44
- Projected halftime score
- Denver 25, Wisconsin 42
- First-half margin
- Wisconsin by 16.4
- First-half points, both teams
- 66.9
- Tied at the half
- 4%
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Box score
Denver
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson JohnsonG | 36 | 27 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Kam MartinG | 29 | 9 | 6 | 0 | 0 |
| Shaun WysockiF | 27 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Oskar Wickstrom StumerF | 21 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 |
| Jordan RogersF | 20 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| Charlie DimmockF | 18 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Logan ThreattG | 18 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Harry BatesF | 14 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 0 |
| Spencer MahoneyF | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Wisconsin
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nolan WinterF | 35 | 6 | 14 | 4 | 0 |
| Owen FoxwellG | 34 | 14 | 1 | 7 | 1 |
| Braeden CarringtonG | 31 | 15 | 4 | 4 | 3 |
| Austin RappF | 30 | 9 | 5 | 1 | 1 |
| Eian ElmerG | 26 | 18 | 5 | 3 | 1 |
| Jack JanickiG | 16 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Victory OnuetuF | 11 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Jackson BallG | 5 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Trey AutryG | 5 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |