Who will win Coastal vs Wisconsin?
The model gives Wisconsin a 99% chance to beat Coastal Carolina, with a projected score of Wisconsin 86, Coastal 60.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 95.4% of the time in 11,767 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Wisconsin | |||||
| CarringtonG · 25 min | 12.9 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 15+ 36% | |
| FoxwellG · 25 min | 12.1 | 2.9 | 3.7 | 10+ 63% | |
| ElmerG · 24 min | 11.7 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 10+ 60% | |
| WinterF · 24 min | 8.2 | 7.1 | 1.9 | 10+ 35% | |
 Coastal | |||||
| PerryG · 23 min | 9.4 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 10+ 44% | |
| Washington IIIG · 19 min | 5.8 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 5+ 54% | |
| CrossG · 21 min | 5.7 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 5+ 53% | |
| FuquayF · 16 min | 5.0 | 3.1 | 0.3 | 5+ 46% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Nolan Winter: Coastal 3%Wisconsin 97%
The white mark is the call with him: Wisconsin 99%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Wisconsin without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wisconsin | ||||
| Nolan Winter | 3.8 | 97% | −2 | 62–84 |
| Braeden Carrington | 3.3 | 98% | −1 | 62–84 |
| Austin Rapp | 2.7 | 98% | −1 | 62–85 |
| Eian Elmer | 2.4 | 98% | −1 | 62–85 |
Change is in Wisconsin's win chance, in points. Scores read Coastal, then Wisconsin. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Coastal 2-2LLWW
- Nov 12W 103-54vs Virginia Lynchburg
- Nov 9W 65-56vs SC UpstateDidn't cover −10.5 · Under 149.5
- Nov 5L 52-113at DukeDidn't cover +40.5 · Over 149.5
- Nov 2L 70-71vs E Michigan
- Last 4
- 2–2, scoring 72.5 and allowing 73.5
- Against the spread, this season
- 0–2
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 1 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Coastal | Wisconsin | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 98.7 292nd | 113.6 63rd |
| Points allowed per 100 | 109.3 204th | 96.3 29th |
| Possessions a game | 70.9 171st | 71.3 121st |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 47.3% 348th | 50.4% 189th |
| Opponents' shooting | 51.4% 248th | 46.9% 15th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 18.8% 269th | 17.9% 166th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 30.4% 264th | 32.3% 146th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.22 350th | 0.24 297th |
The widest gap: Wisconsin's defense (29th) against Coastal's offense (292nd), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Coastal 27, Wisconsin 41
- First-half margin
- Wisconsin by 14.0
- First-half points, both teams
- 68.7
- Projected second half
- Coastal 33, Wisconsin 45
- Second-half points, both teams
- 77.7
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Coastal, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 4 · 34.8 scored, 36.2 allowed
- Wisconsin, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 3 · 43.7 scored, 26.0 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Coastal
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trey PerryG | 23 | 9.4 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 1.1 |
| 10+ pts 44% · 3+ reb 49% · 2+ ast 49% | |||||
| Tristan ThompsonG | 21 | 4.7 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 43% · 3+ reb 59% · 1+ threes 35% | |||||
| Jaylen CrossG | 21 | 5.7 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 53% · 4+ reb 44% · 1+ threes 55% | |||||
| Darius Washington IIIG | 19 | 5.8 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 54% · 2+ ast 45% · 1+ threes 44% | |||||
| Derrick GreenF | 16 | 3.1 | 3.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 26% · 4+ reb 48% | |||||
| Drew FuquayF | 16 | 5.0 | 3.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 46% · 3+ reb 55% · 1+ threes 27% | |||||
| DaJohn CraigG | 15 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 1.6 |
| 5+ pts 44% · 2+ reb 41% · 2+ threes 43% | |||||
| Caleb MiddletonC | 15 | 3.3 | 3.9 | 0.4 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 28% · 4+ reb 51% | |||||
Wisconsin
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Owen FoxwellG | 25 | 12.1 | 2.9 | 3.7 | 1.0 |
| 10+ pts 63% · 3+ reb 52% · 4+ ast 49% | |||||
| Braeden CarringtonG | 25 | 12.9 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 2.6 |
| 15+ pts 36% · 4+ reb 45% · 2+ ast 51% | |||||
| Nolan WinterF | 24 | 8.2 | 7.1 | 1.9 | 0.8 |
| 10+ pts 35% · 7+ reb 54% · 1+ threes 51% | |||||
| Eian ElmerG | 24 | 11.7 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 1.5 |
| 10+ pts 60% · 4+ reb 56% · 2+ ast 41% | |||||
| Austin RappF | 20 | 8.2 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 1.5 |
| 10+ pts 35% · 4+ reb 52% · 2+ threes 41% | |||||
| Victory OnuetuF | 18 | 5.9 | 7.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 55% · 8+ reb 48% | |||||
| Jack JanickiG | 16 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 30% · 2+ reb 51% · 1+ threes 41% | |||||
| Jackson BallG | 14 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 37% · 2+ reb 50% · 1+ threes 31% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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