Who will win Coastal vs Tennessee?
The model gives Tennessee a >99% chance to beat Coastal Carolina, with a projected score of Tennessee 87, Coastal 55.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 95.4% of the time in 11,767 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Tennessee | |||||
| Hill Jr.G · 24 min | 15.3 | 2.6 | 3.0 | 15+ 51% | |
| HarrisG · 24 min | 11.0 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 10+ 55% | |
| HaralsonG · 19 min | 11.0 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 10+ 56% | |
| Dai AmesG · 20 min | 10.7 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 10+ 53% | |
 Coastal | |||||
| PerryG · 23 min | 8.6 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 10+ 37% | |
| Washington IIIG · 19 min | 5.3 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 5+ 49% | |
| CrossG · 21 min | 5.2 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 5+ 48% | |
| FuquayF · 16 min | 4.7 | 2.9 | 0.2 | 5+ 43% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Terrence Hill Jr.: Coastal 1%Tennessee 99%
The white mark is the call with him: Tennessee >99%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Tennessee without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tennessee | ||||
| Terrence Hill Jr. | 3.9 | 99% | −1 | 57–85 |
| Juke Harris | 3.9 | 99% | −1 | 57–85 |
| DeWayne Brown II | 3.8 | 99% | −1 | 57–85 |
| Miles Rubin | 2.6 | >99% | 0 | 56–85 |
Change is in Tennessee's win chance, in points. Scores read Coastal, then Tennessee. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Coastal 2-2LLWW
- Nov 12W 103-54vs Virginia Lynchburg
- Nov 9W 65-56vs SC UpstateDidn't cover −10.5 · Under 149.5
- Nov 5L 52-113at DukeDidn't cover +40.5 · Over 149.5
- Nov 2L 70-71vs E Michigan
- Last 4
- 2–2, scoring 72.5 and allowing 73.5
- Against the spread, this season
- 0–2
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 1 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Coastal | Tennessee | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 98.7 292nd | 115.8 42nd |
| Points allowed per 100 | 109.3 204th | 90.2 6th |
| Possessions a game | 70.9 171st | 70.2 245th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 47.3% 348th | 50.3% 203rd |
| Opponents' shooting | 51.4% 248th | 46.4% 6th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 18.8% 269th | 18.8% 265th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 30.4% 264th | 31.4% 201st |
| Free throws per shot | 0.22 350th | 0.26 168th |
The widest gap: Tennessee's defense (6th) against Coastal's offense (292nd), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Coastal 24, Tennessee 42
- First-half margin
- Tennessee by 17.5
- First-half points, both teams
- 66.3
- Projected second half
- Coastal 30, Tennessee 45
- Second-half points, both teams
- 75.0
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Coastal, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 4 · 34.8 scored, 36.2 allowed
- Tennessee, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 2 · 33.5 scored, 27.5 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Coastal
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trey PerryG | 23 | 8.6 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 1.0 |
| 10+ pts 37% · 3+ reb 45% · 2+ ast 43% | |||||
| Tristan ThompsonG | 21 | 4.3 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 39% · 3+ reb 55% · 1+ threes 33% | |||||
| Jaylen CrossG | 21 | 5.2 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 48% · 3+ reb 58% · 1+ threes 53% | |||||
| Darius Washington IIIG | 19 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 49% · 2+ reb 53% · 1+ threes 42% | |||||
| Derrick GreenF | 16 | 2.9 | 3.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 24% · 4+ reb 45% | |||||
| Drew FuquayF | 16 | 4.7 | 2.9 | 0.2 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 43% · 3+ reb 52% · 1+ threes 26% | |||||
| DaJohn CraigG | 15 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 1.5 |
| 5+ pts 41% · 2+ reb 38% · 2+ threes 40% | |||||
| Caleb MiddletonC | 15 | 3.1 | 3.7 | 0.3 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 26% · 4+ reb 48% | |||||
Tennessee
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeWayne Brown IIF | 25 | 8.8 | 8.7 | 2.1 | 0.0 |
| 10+ pts 39% · 9+ reb 48% · 2+ ast 59% | |||||
| Juke HarrisG | 24 | 11.0 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 1.6 |
| 10+ pts 55% · 4+ reb 50% · 2+ ast 51% | |||||
| Terrence Hill Jr.G | 24 | 15.3 | 2.6 | 3.0 | 1.8 |
| 15+ pts 51% · 3+ reb 45% · 2+ threes 48% | |||||
| Miles RubinC | 23 | 9.0 | 6.0 | 1.8 | 0.0 |
| 10+ pts 41% · 6+ reb 52% · 2+ ast 52% | |||||
| Tyler LundbladeG | 22 | 9.3 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 2.4 |
| 10+ pts 43% · 3+ reb 41% · 2+ ast 43% | |||||
| Dai Dai AmesG | 20 | 10.7 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.7 |
| 10+ pts 53% · 2+ ast 43% · 1+ threes 48% | |||||
| Jalen HaralsonG | 19 | 11.0 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.2 |
| 10+ pts 56% · 4+ reb 52% · 2+ ast 55% | |||||
| Braedan LueF | 17 | 6.0 | 3.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 55% · 4+ reb 44% · 1+ threes 32% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
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