Stetson at Louisville
Thursday, November 19, 2026, 8:00 PM ET at KFC Yum! Center. Stetson our rank 324 · 0-4; Louisville AP 10, our rank 10 · 2-0.
Who will win Stetson vs Louisville?
The model gives Louisville a >99% chance to beat Stetson, with a projected score of Louisville 96, Stetson 60.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 95.4% of the time in 11,767 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Louisville | |||||
| BidungaF · 22 min | 12.6 | 7.6 | 1.4 | 10+ 65% | |
| TrimbleG · 24 min | 12.3 | 3.7 | 3.3 | 10+ 64% | |
| ShelstadG · 26 min | 12.1 | 4.1 | 4.5 | 10+ 62% | |
| WooleyG · 24 min | 11.9 | 4.3 | 2.8 | 10+ 61% | |
| Stetson | |||||
| KuhlF · 26 min | 13.5 | 5.4 | 0.8 | 15+ 39% | |
| EntenmannF · 24 min | 7.1 | 4.4 | 0.6 | 5+ 65% | |
| SucatzkyG · 26 min | 5.9 | 1.4 | 3.3 | 5+ 55% | |
| DoyleF · 24 min | 5.7 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 5+ 53% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Flory Bidunga: Stetson <1%Louisville >99%
The white mark is the call with him: Louisville >99%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Louisville without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Louisville | ||||
| Flory Bidunga | 4.6 | >99% | 0 | 62–94 |
| Alvaro Folgueiras | 4.5 | >99% | 0 | 62–94 |
| Seth Trimble | 3.6 | >99% | 0 | 62–94 |
| Adrian Wooley | 3.6 | >99% | 0 | 62–94 |
Change is in Louisville's win chance, in points. Scores read Stetson, then Louisville. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Stetson 0-4LLLL
- Nov 12L 62-75at HowardDidn't cover +9.5 · Under 148.5
- Nov 6L 53-91at West VirginiaDidn't cover +27.5 · Over 140.5
- Nov 3L 55-81at South Carolina
- Nov 2L 72-85at Clemson
- Last 4
- 0–4, scoring 60.5 and allowing 83.0
- Against the spread, this season
- 0–2
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 1 under
Louisville 2-0WW
- Nov 7W 107-57vs Morehead StCovered −38.5 · Over 152.5
- Nov 2W 84-70vs Chattanooga
- Last 2
- 2–0, scoring 95.5 and allowing 63.5
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–0
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 0 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Stetson | Louisville | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 101.1 245th | 120.9 6th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 117.2 358th | 95.0 24th |
| Possessions a game | 69.5 307th | 71.8 79th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 51.4% 114th | 51.6% 101st |
| Opponents' shooting | 52.9% 329th | 50.0% 144th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 17.5% 112th | 16.9% 56th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 29.7% 294th | 35.4% 16th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.25 249th | 0.24 268th |
The widest gap: Louisville's offense (6th) against Stetson's defense (358th), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Stetson 27, Louisville 47
- First-half margin
- Louisville by 19.9
- First-half points, both teams
- 73.2
- Projected second half
- Stetson 33, Louisville 50
- Second-half points, both teams
- 82.8
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Stetson, first halves so far
- Led 0 of 4 · 29.0 scored, 43.5 allowed
- Louisville, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 2 · 51.0 scored, 34.0 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Stetson
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Collin KuhlF | 26 | 13.5 | 5.4 | 0.8 | 0.5 |
| 15+ pts 39% · 6+ reb 45% · 1+ threes 40% | |||||
| Thiago SucatzkyG | 26 | 5.9 | 1.4 | 3.3 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 55% · 4+ ast 42% · 1+ threes 38% | |||||
| Alex DoyleF | 24 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 1.6 |
| 5+ pts 53% · 3+ reb 41% · 2+ threes 43% | |||||
| Magnus EntenmannF | 24 | 7.1 | 4.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 65% · 5+ reb 44% · 1+ threes 41% | |||||
| Makhi MylesF | 21 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 52% · 3+ reb 42% · 1+ threes 49% | |||||
| Sean MorganG | 18 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 1.3 |
| 5+ pts 45% · 2+ reb 45% · 2+ threes 36% | |||||
| Roman MillerG | 16 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 41% · 2+ reb 38% · 1+ threes 33% | |||||
| Finley SheridanF | 15 | 2.9 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 24% · 2+ reb 61% · 1+ threes 37% | |||||
Louisville
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jackson ShelstadG | 26 | 12.1 | 4.1 | 4.5 | 2.9 |
| 10+ pts 62% · 5+ ast 46% · 3+ threes 51% | |||||
| Alvaro FolgueirasF | 25 | 10.7 | 4.8 | 3.8 | 1.3 |
| 10+ pts 53% · 5+ reb 50% · 4+ ast 51% | |||||
| Seth TrimbleG | 24 | 12.3 | 3.7 | 3.3 | 1.2 |
| 10+ pts 64% · 4+ reb 48% · 3+ ast 60% | |||||
| Adrian WooleyG | 24 | 11.9 | 4.3 | 2.8 | 1.3 |
| 10+ pts 61% · 4+ reb 57% · 3+ ast 52% | |||||
| Flory BidungaF | 22 | 12.6 | 7.6 | 1.4 | 0.1 |
| 10+ pts 65% · 8+ reb 48% · 2+ ast 38% | |||||
| Karter KnoxG | 20 | 9.8 | 5.4 | 1.3 | 1.1 |
| 10+ pts 47% · 6+ reb 45% · 2+ ast 37% | |||||
| Obinna Ekezie Jr.C | 17 | 9.7 | 5.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 |
| 10+ pts 46% · 6+ reb 46% · 1+ threes 48% | |||||
| Isaac EllisG | 16 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 1.1 |
| 5+ pts 56% · 3+ reb 48% · 2+ ast 40% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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