Evansville at Memphis
Sunday, November 22, 2026, 2:00 PM ET at FedExForum. Evansville our rank 289 · 2-1; Memphis our rank 74 · 2-1.
Who will win Evansville vs Memphis?
The model gives Memphis a 97% chance to beat Evansville, with a projected score of Memphis 89, Evansville 68.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 95.4% of the time in 11,767 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Memphis | |||||
| ReidG · 29 min | 20.6 | 1.8 | 5.8 | 20+ 53% | |
| AlmodovarG · 27 min | 16.9 | 4.5 | 1.2 | 15+ 60% | |
| WeeksF · 27 min | 16.9 | 3.5 | 2.7 | 15+ 60% | |
| VaversF · 28 min | 13.9 | 4.7 | 1.4 | 15+ 42% | |
| Evansville | |||||
| QuinetG · 34 min | 13.2 | 2.4 | 4.6 | 15+ 38% | |
| CaseyF · 33 min | 12.5 | 6.4 | 2.4 | 10+ 65% | |
| LangenfeldG · 29 min | 9.8 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 10+ 47% | |
| SymonsG · 25 min | 8.0 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 10+ 33% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Jayden Reid: Evansville 5%Memphis 95%
The white mark is the call with him: Memphis 97%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Memphis without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Memphis | ||||
| Jayden Reid | 2.7 | 95% | −2 | 69–88 |
| Rihards Vavers | 2.3 | 96% | −1 | 69–88 |
| Tylik Weeks | 1.9 | 96% | −1 | 69–88 |
| Luke Almodovar | 1.7 | 96% | −1 | 69–88 |
| Evansville | ||||
| AJ Casey | 0.6 | 97% | 0 | 67–90 |
Change is in Memphis's win chance, in points. Scores read Evansville, then Memphis. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Evansville 2-1WWL
- Nov 10L 68-73at MTSUCovered +9.5 · Under 142.5
- Nov 7W 78-76vs S IndianaDidn't cover −7.5 · Over 143.5
- Nov 2W 80-70vs IU Kokomo
- Last 3
- 2–1, scoring 75.3 and allowing 73.0
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–1
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 1 under
Memphis 2-1WWL
- Nov 10L 81-105at VanderbiltDidn't cover +13.5 · Over 160.5
- Nov 7W 89-88vs VCUCovered +2.5 · Over 159.5
- Nov 2W 80-76vs Iowa State
- Last 3
- 2–1, scoring 83.3 and allowing 89.7
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–1
- Totals, this season
- 2 over, 0 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Evansville | Memphis | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 98.9 290th | 115.8 42nd |
| Points allowed per 100 | 111.7 284th | 105.7 126th |
| Possessions a game | 70.2 245th | 72.2 55th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 49.4% 263rd | 51.6% 102nd |
| Opponents' shooting | 51.5% 252nd | 54.0% 350th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 16.7% 44th | 15.2% 1st |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 30.0% 279th | 31.5% 198th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.25 246th | 0.33 5th |
The widest gap: Memphis's offense (42nd) against Evansville's defense (284th), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Evansville 31, Memphis 43
- First-half margin
- Memphis by 11.9
- First-half points, both teams
- 73.7
- Projected second half
- Evansville 37, Memphis 47
- Second-half points, both teams
- 83.4
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Evansville, first halves so far
- Led 0 of 3 · 28.0 scored, 34.7 allowed
- Memphis, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 2 · 42.0 scored, 43.5 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Evansville
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryce QuinetG | 34 | 13.2 | 2.4 | 4.6 | 1.8 |
| 15+ pts 38% · 5+ ast 47% · 2+ threes 50% | |||||
| AJ CaseyF | 33 | 12.5 | 6.4 | 2.4 | 1.3 |
| 10+ pts 65% · 7+ reb 45% · 3+ ast 42% | |||||
| Max LangenfeldG | 29 | 9.8 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 2.2 |
| 10+ pts 47% · 3+ reb 59% · 2+ threes 58% | |||||
| Caden SymonsG | 25 | 8.0 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 1.3 |
| 10+ pts 33% · 3+ reb 54% · 2+ ast 46% | |||||
| Makuei RiekG | 24 | 6.2 | 3.5 | 0.8 | 1.3 |
| 5+ pts 57% · 4+ reb 44% · 2+ threes 35% | |||||
| Aaron GutmanG | 20 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 46% · 2+ reb 56% · 1+ threes 45% | |||||
| Gustav WintherF | 16 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 52% · 3+ reb 45% | |||||
| James Dyson-MerweF | 15 | 3.6 | 3.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 52% to play · 5+ pts 31% · 3+ reb 57% · 2+ ast 15% | |||||
Missed the last game: James Dyson-Merwe (16 min a game).
Memphis
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jayden ReidG | 29 | 20.6 | 1.8 | 5.8 | 1.6 |
| 20+ pts 53% · 2+ reb 48% · 6+ ast 50% | |||||
| Rihards VaversF | 28 | 13.9 | 4.7 | 1.4 | 2.2 |
| 15+ pts 42% · 5+ reb 48% · 2+ threes 59% | |||||
| Luke AlmodovarG | 27 | 16.9 | 4.5 | 1.2 | 1.9 |
| 15+ pts 60% · 5+ reb 45% · 2+ threes 50% | |||||
| Tylik WeeksF | 27 | 16.9 | 3.5 | 2.7 | 0.7 |
| 15+ pts 60% · 3+ ast 49% · 1+ threes 47% | |||||
| Corneilous WilliamsF | 19 | 6.3 | 6.4 | 0.5 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 59% · 7+ reb 45% | |||||
| Josh HollowayG | 16 | 6.5 | 2.6 | 1.9 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 60% · 3+ reb 45% · 2+ ast 54% | |||||
| Maxim LogueF | 15 | 5.6 | 4.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 52% · 4+ reb 58% | |||||
| Brandin CummingsG | 14 | 6.5 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 60% · 2+ ast 29% · 1+ threes 53% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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