South Alabama at SMU
Friday, November 20, 2026, 8:00 PM ET at Moody Coliseum (Dallas). South Alabama our rank 157 · 2-2; SMU our rank 71 · 3-0.
Who will win South Alabama vs SMU?
The model gives SMU a 91% chance to beat South Alabama, with a projected score of SMU 83, South Alabama 67.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 95.4% of the time in 11,767 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SMU | |||||
| Szumert · 22 min | 11.8 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 10+ 60% | |
| SellersG · 25 min | 11.6 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 10+ 59% | |
| ToombsF · 24 min | 11.0 | 6.0 | 2.4 | 10+ 56% | |
| O'Neal Jr.F · 22 min | 10.5 | 3.9 | 0.9 | 10+ 52% | |
| South Alabama | |||||
| LangsyG · 35 min | 17.0 | 2.5 | 3.1 | 15+ 61% | |
| WilliamsF · 29 min | 14.9 | 7.8 | 0.6 | 15+ 48% | |
| GoldsteinG · 33 min | 14.5 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 15+ 46% | |
| RomanG · 24 min | 6.7 | 2.6 | 2.2 | 5+ 62% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Jaden Toombs: South Alabama 13%SMU 87%
The white mark is the call with him: SMU 91%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | SMU without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SMU | ||||
| Jaden Toombs | 2.7 | 87% | −4 | 69–81 |
| Oziyah Sellers | 2.6 | 87% | −4 | 69–81 |
| Rowan Brumbaugh | 1.9 | 88% | −3 | 68–82 |
| Jermaine O'Neal Jr. | 1.8 | 88% | −3 | 68–82 |
| South Alabama | ||||
| Stephen Williams | 1.9 | 94% | +3 | 67–84 |
| Peyton Law | 0.8 | 92% | +1 | 67–83 |
| Jalen Langsy | 0.5 | 92% | +1 | 67–83 |
Change is in SMU's win chance, in points. Scores read South Alabama, then SMU. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| South Alabama | SMU | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 106.8 129th | 110.8 86th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 109.9 223rd | 99.4 50th |
| Possessions a game | 68.3 357th | 72.6 33rd |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 51.5% 108th | 53.0% 42nd |
| Opponents' shooting | 54.4% 356th | 48.5% 45th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 16.7% 43rd | 20.1% 343rd |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 29.4% 310th | 31.4% 208th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.23 332nd | 0.32 7th |
The widest gap: SMU's offense (86th) against South Alabama's defense (223rd), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- South Alabama 31, SMU 39
- First-half margin
- SMU by 8.3
- First-half points, both teams
- 70.4
- Projected second half
- South Alabama 36, SMU 43
- Second-half points, both teams
- 79.6
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- South Alabama, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 4 · 32.8 scored, 33.0 allowed
- SMU, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 3 · 46.3 scored, 34.0 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
South Alabama
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen LangsyG | 35 | 17.0 | 2.5 | 3.1 | 2.0 |
| 15+ pts 61% · 3+ ast 56% · 2+ threes 54% | |||||
| Aaron GoldsteinG | 33 | 14.5 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 2.8 |
| 15+ pts 46% · 2+ ast 56% · 3+ threes 48% | |||||
| Stephen WilliamsF | 29 | 14.9 | 7.8 | 0.6 | 0.0 |
| 15+ pts 48% · 8+ reb 49% | |||||
| Diego RomanG | 24 | 6.7 | 2.6 | 2.2 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 62% · 3+ reb 46% · 2+ ast 62% | |||||
| Lenni KunzewitschF | 23 | 4.7 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 43% · 3+ reb 59% · 1+ threes 45% | |||||
| Peyton LawF | 20 | 5.5 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 51% · 4+ reb 48% · 2+ ast 30% | |||||
| Davaughn HueittF | 20 | 4.7 | 3.2 | 0.6 | 0.5 |
| 51% to play · 5+ pts 43% · 3+ reb 58% · 1+ threes 37% | |||||
| Roderick Williams Jr.F | 15 | 4.8 | 2.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 43% · 3+ reb 48% | |||||
Missed the last game: Davaughn Hueitt (23 min a game).
SMU
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oziyah SellersG | 25 | 11.6 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 1.3 |
| 10+ pts 59% · 3+ reb 54% · 2+ ast 44% | |||||
| Jaden ToombsF | 24 | 11.0 | 6.0 | 2.4 | 0.5 |
| 10+ pts 56% · 6+ reb 52% · 3+ ast 42% | |||||
| Rowan BrumbaughG | 23 | 10.4 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 1.2 |
| 10+ pts 51% · 3+ reb 49% · 3+ ast 51% | |||||
| Jermaine O'Neal Jr.F | 22 | 10.5 | 3.9 | 0.9 | 0.9 |
| 10+ pts 52% · 4+ reb 51% · 1+ threes 55% | |||||
| Jakub SzumertNA | 22 | 11.8 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| 10+ pts 60% · 2+ ast 48% · 1+ threes 46% | |||||
| David Terrell Jr.G | 19 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 4.1 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 61% · 2+ reb 60% · 4+ ast 57% | |||||
| Billy White IIIF | 18 | 6.1 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 1.0 |
| 5+ pts 56% · 3+ reb 59% · 1+ threes 59% | |||||
| Johan MunchF | 18 | 6.6 | 4.6 | 0.9 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 61% · 5+ reb 46% · 2+ ast 24% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
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