N Dakota St at Colorado St
Wednesday, November 18, 2026, 9:00 PM ET at Moby Arena. N Dakota St our rank 219 · 1-3; Colorado St our rank 85 · 3-0.
Who will win N Dakota St vs Colorado St?
The model gives Colorado State a 93% chance to beat North Dakota State, with a projected score of Colorado St 84, N Dakota St 68.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 95.4% of the time in 11,767 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colorado St | |||||
| ButlerG · 28 min | 12.4 | 4.9 | 4.3 | 10+ 65% | |
| BoothF · 27 min | 12.3 | 5.7 | 0.7 | 10+ 64% | |
| PascarelliG · 30 min | 12.2 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 10+ 63% | |
| JorgensenF · 24 min | 10.8 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 10+ 54% | |
| N Dakota St | |||||
| Diaz IIIG · 28 min | 12.0 | 3.4 | 2.5 | 10+ 62% | |
| IversenG · 24 min | 9.4 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 10+ 43% | |
| NagyF · 25 min | 7.7 | 3.7 | 0.8 | 10+ 31% | |
| MasseyG · 21 min | 7.6 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 5+ 69% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Carey Booth: N Dakota St 11%Colorado St 89%
The white mark is the call with him: Colorado St 93%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Colorado St without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colorado St | ||||
| Carey Booth | 2.9 | 89% | −4 | 69–83 |
| Kyle Jorgensen | 2.2 | 90% | −3 | 69–83 |
| Jase Butler | 2.0 | 90% | −3 | 69–83 |
| Josh Pascarelli | 1.9 | 91% | −2 | 69–83 |
| N Dakota St | ||||
| Rob Diaz III | 0.9 | 94% | +1 | 67–85 |
Change is in Colorado St's win chance, in points. Scores read N Dakota St, then Colorado St. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
N Dakota St 1-3WLLL
- Nov 8L 80-91at BakersfieldDidn't cover −2.5 · Over 152.5
- Nov 6L 70-79at San FranciscoDidn't cover +8.5 · Over 145.5
- Nov 4L 64-105at Saint Mary'sDidn't cover +13.5 · Over 148.5
- Nov 2W 90-59vs Crookston (MN)
- Last 4
- 1–3, scoring 76.0 and allowing 83.5
- Against the spread, this season
- 0–3
- Totals, this season
- 3 over, 0 under
Colorado St 3-0WWW
- Nov 11W 87-71vs Portland StDidn't cover −16.5 · Over 150.5
- Nov 6W 78-67vs IdahoDidn't cover −16.5 · Under 151.5
- Nov 2W 84-74vs Montana St
- Last 3
- 3–0, scoring 83.0 and allowing 70.7
- Against the spread, this season
- 0–2
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 1 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| N Dakota St | Colorado St | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 105.5 151st | 112.1 72nd |
| Points allowed per 100 | 112.7 304th | 102.9 95th |
| Possessions a game | 70.2 245th | 69.6 302nd |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 50.1% 215th | 52.2% 75th |
| Opponents' shooting | 56.9% 364th | 50.9% 205th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 16.5% 30th | 17.8% 141st |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 33.9% 66th | 26.6% 361st |
| Free throws per shot | 0.22 343rd | 0.27 128th |
The widest gap: Colorado St's offense (72nd) against N Dakota St's defense (304th), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- N Dakota St 31, Colorado St 40
- First-half margin
- Colorado St by 9.1
- First-half points, both teams
- 71.4
- Projected second half
- N Dakota St 37, Colorado St 44
- Second-half points, both teams
- 80.8
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- N Dakota St, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 4 · 31.8 scored, 38.5 allowed
- Colorado St, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 3 · 40.7 scored, 32.3 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
N Dakota St
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rob Diaz IIIG | 28 | 12.0 | 3.4 | 2.5 | 1.3 |
| 10+ pts 62% · 4+ reb 42% · 3+ ast 44% | |||||
| Andrew NagyF | 25 | 7.7 | 3.7 | 0.8 | 1.2 |
| 10+ pts 31% · 4+ reb 47% · 1+ threes 64% | |||||
| Andy StefonowiczG | 24 | 6.8 | 2.0 | 3.3 | 1.3 |
| 49% to play · 5+ pts 63% · 2+ reb 55% · 4+ ast 41% | |||||
| Max IversenG | 24 | 9.4 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 1.5 |
| 10+ pts 43% · 2+ reb 49% · 2+ threes 41% | |||||
| Melvin Bell Jr.G | 24 | 6.3 | 2.3 | 0.5 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 59% · 2+ reb 61% · 1+ threes 45% | |||||
| Riley MasseyG | 21 | 7.6 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 69% · 2+ ast 44% · 1+ threes 56% | |||||
| Carson SmithG | 18 | 4.8 | 3.1 | 0.3 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 44% · 3+ reb 55% · 1+ threes 46% | |||||
| Kaden TateF | 18 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 41% · 5+ reb 45% · 1+ threes 18% | |||||
Missed the last game: Andy Stefonowicz (26 min a game).
Colorado St
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh PascarelliG | 30 | 12.2 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 1.7 |
| 10+ pts 63% · 3+ reb 50% · 2+ threes 47% | |||||
| Jase ButlerG | 28 | 12.4 | 4.9 | 4.3 | 1.1 |
| 10+ pts 65% · 5+ reb 51% · 5+ ast 42% | |||||
| Carey BoothF | 27 | 12.3 | 5.7 | 0.7 | 1.2 |
| 10+ pts 64% · 6+ reb 48% · 1+ threes 64% | |||||
| Justin MenardG | 25 | 10.6 | 2.6 | 3.4 | 1.4 |
| 10+ pts 52% · 3+ reb 46% · 4+ ast 43% | |||||
| Kyle JorgensenF | 24 | 10.8 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 1.2 |
| 10+ pts 54% · 4+ reb 56% · 2+ ast 48% | |||||
| Rashaan MbembaF | 16 | 9.3 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 10+ pts 43% · 4+ reb 47% · 1+ threes 26% | |||||
| Jaden GhoreishiF | 16 | 7.1 | 4.5 | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 66% · 5+ reb 44% · 1+ threes 41% | |||||
| Jojo McIverG | 14 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 23% · 2+ reb 44% · 2+ ast 42% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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