Wagner at Saint Joseph's
Tuesday, November 17, 2026, 7:00 PM ET at Michael J. Hagan '85 Arena. Wagner our rank 334 · 1-3; Saint Joseph's our rank 120 · 3-0.
Who will win Wagner vs Saint Joseph's?
The model gives Saint Joseph's a 94% chance to beat Wagner, with a projected score of Saint Joseph's 77, Wagner 60.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 95.4% of the time in 11,767 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saint Joseph's | |||||
| MyersG · 32 min | 14.5 | 4.9 | 4.5 | 15+ 46% | |
| Glover-ToscanoG · 28 min | 13.9 | 4.5 | 0.7 | 15+ 42% | |
| RansonG · 27 min | 13.9 | 3.4 | 2.0 | 15+ 42% | |
| WillifordG · 33 min | 7.9 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 10+ 33% | |
| Wagner | |||||
| EstevezG · 27 min | 10.5 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 10+ 52% | |
| WatsonF · 18 min | 8.2 | 3.0 | 0.4 | 10+ 35% | |
| JonesF · 22 min | 6.7 | 5.2 | 0.8 | 5+ 62% | |
| BryantG · 27 min | 5.9 | 3.7 | 2.9 | 5+ 55% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Sean Logan: Wagner 9%Saint Joseph's 91%
The white mark is the call with him: Saint Joseph's 94%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Saint Joseph's without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saint Joseph's | ||||
| Sean Logan | 1.9 | 91% | −3 | 61–76 |
| Jaiden Glover-Toscano | 1.9 | 91% | −3 | 61–76 |
| Khaafiq Myers | 1.5 | 92% | −2 | 61–76 |
| Austin Williford | 1.1 | 92% | −2 | 61–77 |
Change is in Saint Joseph's's win chance, in points. Scores read Wagner, then Saint Joseph's. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Wagner 1-3LLLW
- Nov 11W 117-51vs Bryant & Stratton-Albany
- Nov 9L 41-83at UConnDidn't cover +39.5 · Under 139.5
- Nov 6L 57-83at MiamiCovered +38.5 · Under 145.5
- Nov 3L 50-76at Boston College
- Last 4
- 1–3, scoring 66.2 and allowing 73.2
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–1
- Totals, this season
- 0 over, 2 under
Saint Joseph's 3-0WWW
- Nov 11W 83-80vs South FloridaCovered +6.5 · Over 148.5
- Nov 7W 67-57vs LafayetteDidn't cover −16.5 · Under 147.5
- Nov 4W 82-73vs Longwood
- Last 3
- 3–0, scoring 77.3 and allowing 70.0
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–1
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 1 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Wagner | Saint Joseph's | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 94.0 345th | 102.0 226th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 110.8 254th | 100.7 69th |
| Possessions a game | 69.7 292nd | 71.6 95th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 47.1% 353rd | 46.7% 356th |
| Opponents' shooting | 51.1% 224th | 49.6% 122nd |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 20.7% 356th | 15.7% 7th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 34.1% 52nd | 28.7% 332nd |
| Free throws per shot | 0.23 335th | 0.27 115th |
The widest gap: Saint Joseph's's defense (69th) against Wagner's offense (345th), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Wagner 28, Saint Joseph's 37
- First-half margin
- Saint Joseph's by 9.3
- First-half points, both teams
- 64.4
- Projected second half
- Wagner 33, Saint Joseph's 40
- Second-half points, both teams
- 72.9
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Wagner, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 4 · 32.0 scored, 33.5 allowed
- Saint Joseph's, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 3 · 36.7 scored, 28.7 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Wagner
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam EstevezG | 27 | 10.5 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 2.1 |
| 10+ pts 52% · 3+ reb 42% · 2+ threes 56% | |||||
| Taj BryantG | 27 | 5.9 | 3.7 | 2.9 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 55% · 4+ reb 48% · 3+ ast 54% | |||||
| AJ RodriguezF | 24 | 5.9 | 4.8 | 0.3 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 55% · 5+ reb 50% · 1+ threes 48% | |||||
| Tajae JonesF | 22 | 6.7 | 5.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 62% · 5+ reb 55% · 2+ ast 19% | |||||
| Youssouf SingareC | 21 | 4.8 | 3.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 44% · 4+ reb 47% | |||||
| Ryan PettisG | 19 | 2.8 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 23% · 2+ reb 58% · 2+ ast 43% | |||||
| Kareem WatsonF | 18 | 8.2 | 3.0 | 0.4 | 1.0 |
| 10+ pts 35% · 3+ reb 54% · 1+ threes 60% | |||||
| Gavin EdwardsG | 13 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 27% · 2+ reb 46% · 1+ threes 33% | |||||
Saint Joseph's
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin WillifordG | 33 | 7.9 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 1.1 |
| 10+ pts 33% · 6+ reb 52% · 2+ ast 56% | |||||
| Khaafiq MyersG | 32 | 14.5 | 4.9 | 4.5 | 1.1 |
| 15+ pts 46% · 5+ reb 51% · 5+ ast 46% | |||||
| Sean LoganF | 28 | 6.3 | 6.6 | 2.1 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 59% · 7+ reb 48% · 2+ ast 59% | |||||
| Jaiden Glover-ToscanoG | 28 | 13.9 | 4.5 | 0.7 | 1.9 |
| 15+ pts 42% · 5+ reb 46% · 2+ threes 52% | |||||
| BJ RansonG | 27 | 13.9 | 3.4 | 2.0 | 2.0 |
| 15+ pts 42% · 2+ ast 56% · 2+ threes 53% | |||||
| Logan CareyG | 18 | 6.3 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 58% · 3+ reb 42% · 2+ ast 46% | |||||
| Keoni SaccoF | 12 | 4.0 | 2.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 35% · 3+ reb 50% | |||||
| Owen VernaG | 11 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 27% · 2+ reb 40% · 1+ threes 48% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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