Who will win Wagner vs Maryland?
The model gives Maryland a 99% chance to beat Wagner, with a projected score of Maryland 86, Wagner 59.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 95.4% of the time in 11,767 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Maryland | |||||
| PayneF · 26 min | 19.5 | 7.3 | 1.1 | 20+ 47% | |
| MillsG · 22 min | 14.3 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 15+ 45% | |
| BuljanF · 22 min | 10.2 | 9.0 | 1.2 | 10+ 50% | |
| HouseG · 18 min | 9.8 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 10+ 46% | |
 Wagner | |||||
| EstevezG · 26 min | 10.0 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 10+ 48% | |
| WatsonF · 18 min | 8.1 | 3.0 | 0.4 | 10+ 34% | |
| JonesF · 22 min | 6.5 | 5.0 | 0.7 | 5+ 60% | |
| RodriguezF · 24 min | 5.7 | 4.6 | 0.3 | 5+ 53% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Tomislav Buljan: Wagner 2%Maryland 98%
The white mark is the call with him: Maryland 99%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Maryland without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maryland | ||||
| Tomislav Buljan | 3.3 | 98% | −1 | 60–84 |
| Pharrel Payne | 3.1 | 98% | −1 | 60–84 |
| DJ Wagner | 2.4 | 98% | −1 | 60–85 |
| Bishop Boswell | 2.2 | 99% | 0 | 60–85 |
Change is in Maryland's win chance, in points. Scores read Wagner, then Maryland. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Wagner 1-3LLLW
- Nov 11W 117-51vs Bryant & Stratton-Albany
- Nov 9L 41-83at UConnDidn't cover +39.5 · Under 139.5
- Nov 6L 57-83at MiamiCovered +38.5 · Under 145.5
- Nov 3L 50-76at Boston College
- Last 4
- 1–3, scoring 66.2 and allowing 73.2
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–1
- Totals, this season
- 0 over, 2 under
Maryland 1-1WL
- Nov 7L 74-86at GeorgetownDidn't cover −3.5 · Over 146.5
- Nov 2W 96-67vs Bucknell
- Last 2
- 1–1, scoring 85.0 and allowing 76.5
- Against the spread, this season
- 0–1
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 0 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Wagner | Maryland | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 94.0 345th | 115.8 45th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 110.8 254th | 101.4 75th |
| Possessions a game | 69.7 292nd | 70.2 245th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 47.1% 353rd | 48.8% 300th |
| Opponents' shooting | 51.1% 224th | 53.6% 345th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 20.7% 356th | 18.3% 211th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 34.1% 52nd | 39.4% 1st |
| Free throws per shot | 0.23 335th | 0.28 80th |
The widest gap: Maryland's defense (75th) against Wagner's offense (345th), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Wagner 26, Maryland 41
- First-half margin
- Maryland by 14.8
- First-half points, both teams
- 67.8
- Projected second half
- Wagner 32, Maryland 44
- Second-half points, both teams
- 76.7
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Wagner, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 4 · 32.0 scored, 33.5 allowed
- Maryland, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 2 · 36.0 scored, 37.0 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Wagner
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam EstevezG | 26 | 10.0 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 2.0 |
| 10+ pts 48% · 2+ reb 61% · 2+ threes 54% | |||||
| Taj BryantG | 26 | 5.6 | 3.5 | 2.7 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 52% · 4+ reb 45% · 3+ ast 48% | |||||
| AJ RodriguezF | 24 | 5.7 | 4.6 | 0.3 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 53% · 5+ reb 47% · 1+ threes 47% | |||||
| Tajae JonesF | 22 | 6.5 | 5.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 60% · 5+ reb 52% · 2+ ast 17% | |||||
| Youssouf SingareC | 21 | 4.7 | 3.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 43% · 4+ reb 45% | |||||
| Ryan PettisG | 19 | 2.7 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 22% · 2+ reb 56% · 2+ ast 40% | |||||
| Kareem WatsonF | 18 | 8.1 | 3.0 | 0.4 | 1.0 |
| 10+ pts 34% · 3+ reb 53% · 1+ threes 59% | |||||
| Gavin EdwardsG | 13 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 27% · 2+ reb 46% · 1+ threes 34% | |||||
Maryland
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pharrel PayneF | 26 | 19.5 | 7.3 | 1.1 | 0.2 |
| 20+ pts 47% · 8+ reb 44% · 2+ ast 30% | |||||
| DJ WagnerG | 25 | 9.5 | 2.8 | 3.0 | 1.3 |
| 10+ pts 45% · 3+ reb 49% · 3+ ast 56% | |||||
| Mike McNair Jr.G | 22 | 8.5 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 1.5 |
| 10+ pts 37% · 3+ reb 53% · 2+ ast 47% | |||||
| Andre MillsG | 22 | 14.3 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 2.1 |
| 15+ pts 45% · 5+ reb 51% · 2+ ast 48% | |||||
| Tomislav BuljanF | 22 | 10.2 | 9.0 | 1.2 | 0.1 |
| 10+ pts 50% · 9+ reb 52% · 2+ ast 33% | |||||
| Bishop BoswellG | 19 | 4.4 | 3.3 | 2.6 | 1.0 |
| 5+ pts 39% · 3+ ast 47% · 1+ threes 58% | |||||
| Kaden HouseG | 18 | 9.8 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 0.8 |
| 10+ pts 46% · 3+ reb 51% · 1+ threes 52% | |||||
| Baba OladotunF | 18 | 5.8 | 3.8 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 54% · 4+ reb 49% · 1+ threes 32% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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