Robert Morris at Toledo
Thursday, November 19, 2026, 7:00 PM ET at Savage Arena. Robert Morris our rank 253 · 0-3; Toledo our rank 126 · 1-3.
Who will win Robert Morris vs Toledo?
The model gives Toledo a 84% chance to beat Robert Morris, with a projected score of Toledo 77, Robert Morris 66.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 80–90% have been right 84.9% of the time in 12,246 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toledo | |||||
| StrongG · 31 min | 14.3 | 2.8 | 2.2 | 15+ 44% | |
| Montas Jr.G · 24 min | 13.0 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 15+ 37% | |
| OuwingaF · 30 min | 11.7 | 6.5 | 1.0 | 10+ 60% | |
| JonesG · 30 min | 9.2 | 2.9 | 6.1 | 10+ 42% | |
| Robert Morris | |||||
| Garris Jr.G · 28 min | 12.4 | 4.4 | 1.1 | 10+ 65% | |
| LivingstonG · 30 min | 8.8 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 10+ 39% | |
| ValentineG · 29 min | 8.6 | 2.9 | 3.5 | 10+ 38% | |
| DunkleyF · 20 min | 8.0 | 3.9 | 0.6 | 10+ 33% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Austin Parks: Robert Morris 20%Toledo 80%
The white mark is the call with him: Toledo 84%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Toledo without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toledo | ||||
| Austin Parks | 1.7 | 80% | −4 | 67–76 |
| Angel Montas Jr. | 1.1 | 81% | −3 | 67–77 |
| Jaylan Ouwinga | 1.0 | 81% | −3 | 67–77 |
| Sean Jones | 0.9 | 82% | −2 | 67–77 |
| Robert Morris | ||||
| Jalik Dunkley | 0.7 | 85% | +1 | 66–78 |
Change is in Toledo's win chance, in points. Scores read Robert Morris, then Toledo. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Robert Morris 0-3LLL
- Nov 11L 53-76at ArkansasCovered +29.5 · Under 155.5
- Nov 6L 56-79at UICDidn't cover +10.5 · Under 143.5
- Nov 2L 49-86at Nevada
- Last 3
- 0–3, scoring 52.7 and allowing 80.3
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–1
- Totals, this season
- 0 over, 2 under
Toledo 1-3LLWL
- Nov 10L 68-76vs Wright StDidn't cover +1.5 · Under 156.5
- Nov 7W 81-76at MarshallCovered +1.5 · Under 158.5
- Nov 5L 61-91at Michigan StDidn't cover +26.5 · Under 155.5
- Nov 2L 70-71at Arkansas St
- Last 4
- 1–3, scoring 70.0 and allowing 78.5
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–2
- Totals, this season
- 0 over, 3 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Robert Morris | Toledo | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 98.4 299th | 105.6 148th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 108.7 190th | 105.5 122nd |
| Possessions a game | 69.2 327th | 71.5 103rd |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 48.4% 320th | 48.6% 309th |
| Opponents' shooting | 50.5% 183rd | 49.3% 92nd |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 19.8% 335th | 15.9% 9th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 28.2% 347th | 29.7% 297th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.26 156th | 0.23 308th |
The widest gap: Toledo's defense (122nd) against Robert Morris's offense (299th), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Robert Morris 31, Toledo 37
- First-half margin
- Toledo by 6.0
- First-half points, both teams
- 67.3
- Projected second half
- Robert Morris 36, Toledo 41
- Second-half points, both teams
- 76.1
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Robert Morris, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 3 · 28.7 scored, 36.7 allowed
- Toledo, first halves so far
- Led 0 of 4 · 29.5 scored, 39.5 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Robert Morris
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darius LivingstonG | 30 | 8.8 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 2.6 |
| 10+ pts 39% · 2+ reb 42% · 3+ threes 44% | |||||
| Ace ValentineG | 29 | 8.6 | 2.9 | 3.5 | 1.6 |
| 10+ pts 38% · 3+ reb 51% · 4+ ast 44% | |||||
| KJ Garris Jr.G | 28 | 12.4 | 4.4 | 1.1 | 1.5 |
| 10+ pts 65% · 5+ reb 43% · 2+ threes 41% | |||||
| Samuel ObenjoF | 25 | 3.6 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 31% · 4+ reb 53% · 2+ ast 36% | |||||
| Ta'Zir SmithG | 23 | 7.1 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 1.1 |
| 5+ pts 66% · 2+ reb 56% · 1+ threes 62% | |||||
| Eddie Cooke IIIG | 23 | 4.9 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 45% · 4+ reb 58% · 2+ ast 45% | |||||
| Jalik DunkleyF | 20 | 8.0 | 3.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 10+ pts 33% · 4+ reb 52% · 1+ threes 23% | |||||
| KC UgwuakaziF | 19 | 5.2 | 4.0 | 0.8 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 47% · 4+ reb 53% · 2+ ast 19% | |||||
Toledo
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mynor StrongG | 31 | 14.3 | 2.8 | 2.2 | 1.6 |
| 15+ pts 44% · 3+ reb 49% · 2+ threes 44% | |||||
| Sean JonesG | 30 | 9.2 | 2.9 | 6.1 | 1.1 |
| 10+ pts 42% · 3+ reb 51% · 6+ ast 55% | |||||
| Jaylan OuwingaF | 30 | 11.7 | 6.5 | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| 10+ pts 60% · 7+ reb 46% · 1+ threes 57% | |||||
| Angel Montas Jr.G | 24 | 13.0 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.8 |
| 15+ pts 37% · 5+ reb 49% · 1+ threes 50% | |||||
| Austin ParksC | 23 | 8.8 | 5.7 | 1.5 | 0.2 |
| 10+ pts 39% · 6+ reb 48% · 2+ ast 42% | |||||
| Will James Jr.G | 20 | 5.4 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 50% · 3+ reb 59% · 2+ ast 38% | |||||
| Rich BarronF | 16 | 4.1 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 36% · 3+ reb 41% · 1+ threes 50% | |||||
| Chris RiddleF | 14 | 3.9 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 35% · 3+ reb 47% · 1+ threes 40% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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