Robert Morris v New Mexico St
Sunday, November 22, 2026, 2:30 PM ET at The Reef. Robert Morris our rank 253 · 0-3; New Mexico St our rank 262 · 1-2.
Who will win Robert Morris vs New Mexico St?
The model gives Robert Morris a 52% chance to beat New Mexico State, with a projected score of Robert Morris 71, New Mexico St 70.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 50–60% have been right 55.4% of the time in 16,654 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Morris | |||||
| Garris Jr.G · 29 min | 13.6 | 4.8 | 1.3 | 15+ 40% | |
| LivingstonG · 31 min | 9.6 | 1.7 | 2.6 | 10+ 45% | |
| ValentineG · 30 min | 9.5 | 3.1 | 4.0 | 10+ 44% | |
| DunkleyF · 20 min | 8.5 | 4.2 | 0.6 | 10+ 37% | |
| New Mexico St | |||||
| LavrenovF · 31 min | 14.8 | 7.7 | 0.4 | 15+ 48% | |
| DudleyG · 29 min | 12.0 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 10+ 62% | |
| WashingtonG · 23 min | 9.2 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 10+ 42% | |
| OsborneF · 32 min | 7.8 | 4.9 | 0.8 | 10+ 32% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Jalik Dunkley: Robert Morris 49%New Mexico St 51%
The white mark is the call with him: Robert Morris 52%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Robert Morris without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Morris | ||||
| Jalik Dunkley | 0.7 | 49% | −3 | 71–71 |
Change is in Robert Morris's win chance, in points. Scores read Robert Morris, then New Mexico St. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Robert Morris 0-3LLL
- Nov 11L 53-76at ArkansasCovered +29.5 · Under 155.5
- Nov 6L 56-79at UICDidn't cover +10.5 · Under 143.5
- Nov 2L 49-86at Nevada
- Last 3
- 0–3, scoring 52.7 and allowing 80.3
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–1
- Totals, this season
- 0 over, 2 under
New Mexico St 1-2WLL
- Nov 12L 58-60at UTEPCovered +5.5 · Under 144.5
- Nov 7L 68-109at GonzagaDidn't cover +29.5 · Over 151.5
- Nov 3W 73-66vs Western New Mexico
- Last 3
- 1–2, scoring 66.3 and allowing 78.3
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–1
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 1 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Robert Morris | New Mexico St | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 98.4 299th | 101.0 247th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 108.7 190th | 111.9 287th |
| Possessions a game | 69.2 327th | 69.8 286th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 48.4% 320th | 50.9% 152nd |
| Opponents' shooting | 50.5% 183rd | 52.2% 299th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 19.8% 335th | 20.7% 357th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 28.2% 347th | 34.8% 25th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.26 156th | 0.28 87th |
The widest gap: Robert Morris's defense (190th) against New Mexico St's offense (247th), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Robert Morris 33, New Mexico St 33
- First-half margin
- Robert Morris by 0.2
- First-half points, both teams
- 66.3
- Projected second half
- Robert Morris 38, New Mexico St 37
- Second-half points, both teams
- 75.0
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Robert Morris, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 3 · 28.7 scored, 36.7 allowed
- New Mexico St, first halves so far
- Led 0 of 3 · 32.0 scored, 35.3 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Robert Morris
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darius LivingstonG | 31 | 9.6 | 1.7 | 2.6 | 2.8 |
| 10+ pts 45% · 2+ reb 46% · 3+ threes 48% | |||||
| Ace ValentineG | 30 | 9.5 | 3.1 | 4.0 | 1.7 |
| 10+ pts 44% · 4+ ast 54% · 2+ threes 47% | |||||
| KJ Garris Jr.G | 29 | 13.6 | 4.8 | 1.3 | 1.6 |
| 15+ pts 40% · 5+ reb 50% · 2+ threes 44% | |||||
| Samuel ObenjoF | 25 | 3.9 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 35% · 5+ reb 43% · 2+ ast 41% | |||||
| Ta'Zir SmithG | 23 | 7.7 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 1.2 |
| 10+ pts 31% · 2+ reb 60% · 2+ ast 39% | |||||
| Eddie Cooke IIIG | 23 | 5.3 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 49% · 5+ reb 47% · 2+ ast 51% | |||||
| Jalik DunkleyF | 20 | 8.5 | 4.2 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 10+ pts 37% · 4+ reb 56% · 1+ threes 24% | |||||
| KC UgwuakaziF | 19 | 5.5 | 4.3 | 0.9 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 51% · 4+ reb 57% · 2+ ast 22% | |||||
New Mexico St
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jae'Coby OsborneF | 32 | 7.8 | 4.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 10+ pts 32% · 5+ reb 51% · 1+ threes 22% | |||||
| Mark LavrenovF | 31 | 14.8 | 7.7 | 0.4 | 0.8 |
| 15+ pts 48% · 8+ reb 49% · 1+ threes 52% | |||||
| DJ DudleyG | 29 | 12.0 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 1.8 |
| 10+ pts 62% · 2+ ast 54% · 2+ threes 50% | |||||
| Jermaine WashingtonG | 23 | 9.2 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 1.7 |
| 10+ pts 42% · 2+ ast 56% · 2+ threes 45% | |||||
| Gabe PickensG | 22 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 3.4 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 40% · 2+ reb 52% · 4+ ast 44% | |||||
| Adrame DiongueC | 17 | 5.0 | 4.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 46% · 4+ reb 57% | |||||
| Phoenix WoodsonF | 13 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 19% · 2+ reb 61% | |||||
| Leopold LevillainF | 11 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 0.4 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 24% · 3+ reb 50% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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