AR-Pine Bluff at Arkansas St
Wednesday, November 18, 2026, 8:00 PM ET at First National Bank Arena. AR-Pine Bluff our rank 365 · 0-3; Arkansas St our rank 176 · 1-2.
Who will win AR-Pine Bluff vs Arkansas St?
The model gives Arkansas State a 97% chance to beat Arkansas-Pine Bluff, with a projected score of Arkansas St 88, AR-Pine Bluff 67.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 95.4% of the time in 11,767 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arkansas St | |||||
| TaylorG · 30 min | 15.1 | 4.3 | 5.1 | 15+ 50% | |
| FergusonG · 23 min | 10.0 | 3.8 | 2.4 | 10+ 48% | |
| PykeG · 18 min | 9.9 | 5.2 | 1.4 | 10+ 47% | |
| McGeeG · 17 min | 9.5 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 10+ 45% | |
| AR-Pine Bluff | |||||
| RichF · 25 min | 11.3 | 4.1 | 0.7 | 10+ 57% | |
| TatumG · 30 min | 10.5 | 3.2 | 2.0 | 10+ 52% | |
| WilliamsonF · 25 min | 6.7 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 5+ 62% | |
| SmithF · 22 min | 5.3 | 3.3 | 0.5 | 5+ 48% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Layne Taylor: AR-Pine Bluff 4%Arkansas St 96%
The white mark is the call with him: Arkansas St 97%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Arkansas St without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arkansas St | ||||
| Layne Taylor | 0.9 | 96% | −1 | 67–87 |
| Jordan Pyke | 0.8 | 96% | −1 | 67–87 |
Change is in Arkansas St's win chance, in points. Scores read AR-Pine Bluff, then Arkansas St. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| AR-Pine Bluff | Arkansas St | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 90.6 363rd | 102.4 210th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 116.9 356th | 107.3 157th |
| Possessions a game | 72.9 24th | 73.5 7th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 47.6% 345th | 47.7% 342nd |
| Opponents' shooting | 52.6% 313th | 48.8% 56th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 25.5% 365th | 17.6% 127th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 32.2% 151st | 32.3% 148th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.25 232nd | 0.20 361st |
The widest gap: Arkansas St's defense (157th) against AR-Pine Bluff's offense (363rd), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- AR-Pine Bluff 31, Arkansas St 42
- First-half margin
- Arkansas St by 11.3
- First-half points, both teams
- 72.5
- Projected second half
- AR-Pine Bluff 36, Arkansas St 46
- Second-half points, both teams
- 82.0
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- AR-Pine Bluff, first halves so far
- Led 0 of 3 · 16.7 scored, 52.0 allowed
- Arkansas St, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 3 · 34.7 scored, 46.7 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
AR-Pine Bluff
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen TatumG | 30 | 10.5 | 3.2 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 10+ pts 52% · 3+ reb 57% · 1+ threes 50% | |||||
| Creed WilliamsonF | 25 | 6.7 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 62% · 4+ reb 54% · 2+ ast 47% | |||||
| Macaleab RichF | 25 | 11.3 | 4.1 | 0.7 | 0.7 |
| 10+ pts 57% · 4+ reb 55% · 1+ threes 50% | |||||
| CJ SmithF | 22 | 5.3 | 3.3 | 0.5 | 1.0 |
| 5+ pts 48% · 3+ reb 58% · 1+ threes 58% | |||||
| Harrison PickettG | 19 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 29% · 2+ reb 48% · 1+ threes 49% | |||||
| Jai'chaunn HayesG | 19 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 36% · 2+ reb 55% · 1+ threes 55% | |||||
| Kalli JohnsonG | 15 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 34% · 2+ reb 41% · 1+ threes 29% | |||||
| Jeremy NyakundiF | 14 | 3.8 | 2.5 | 0.4 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 33% · 3+ reb 43% · 1+ threes 27% | |||||
Arkansas St
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Layne TaylorG | 30 | 15.1 | 4.3 | 5.1 | 2.5 |
| 15+ pts 50% · 5+ ast 56% · 3+ threes 43% | |||||
| Tameron FergusonG | 23 | 10.0 | 3.8 | 2.4 | 1.2 |
| 10+ pts 48% · 4+ reb 49% · 3+ ast 43% | |||||
| Amadou DoumbiaF | 20 | 6.4 | 7.3 | 0.3 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 60% · 8+ reb 44% · 1+ threes 53% | |||||
| Delang MuonF | 20 | 6.5 | 4.8 | 1.0 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 60% · 5+ reb 49% · 1+ threes 49% | |||||
| Royal Blue SmithG | 19 | 7.3 | 3.0 | 2.6 | 1.5 |
| 5+ pts 67% · 3+ reb 52% · 3+ ast 46% | |||||
| Chaz WatsonG | 18 | 7.2 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 1.7 |
| 5+ pts 66% · 3+ reb 47% · 2+ threes 48% | |||||
| Jordan PykeG | 18 | 9.9 | 5.2 | 1.4 | 0.7 |
| 10+ pts 47% · 5+ reb 56% · 1+ threes 49% | |||||
| Aaron McGeeG | 17 | 9.5 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 1.5 |
| 10+ pts 45% · 2+ reb 59% · 2+ ast 45% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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