Arkansas St v Southern Utah
Monday, November 23, 2026, 3:30 PM ET at Ocean Bank Convocation Center. Arkansas St our rank 176 · 1-2; Southern Utah our rank 255 · 3-1.
Who will win Arkansas St vs Southern Utah?
The model gives Arkansas State a 65% chance to beat Southern Utah, with a projected score of Arkansas St 83, Southern Utah 78.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 60–70% have been right 64.8% of the time in 15,721 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arkansas St | |||||
| TaylorG · 31 min | 15.3 | 4.3 | 4.8 | 15+ 50% | |
| FergusonG · 24 min | 9.8 | 3.7 | 2.2 | 10+ 47% | |
| PykeG · 18 min | 9.5 | 5.0 | 1.2 | 10+ 44% | |
| McGeeG · 17 min | 9.0 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 10+ 41% | |
| Southern Utah | |||||
| NichollsF · 16 min | 11.0 | 4.7 | 0.8 | 10+ 55% | |
| FeroahF · 23 min | 10.5 | 6.0 | 1.6 | 10+ 52% | |
| BrelandG · 15 min | 8.9 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 10+ 40% | |
| BarclayF · 19 min | 8.1 | 3.7 | 2.4 | 10+ 34% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Layne Taylor: Arkansas St 62%Southern Utah 38%
The white mark is the call with him: Arkansas St 65%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Arkansas St without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arkansas St | ||||
| Layne Taylor | 0.9 | 62% | −3 | 82–79 |
| Jordan Pyke | 0.8 | 62% | −3 | 82–79 |
| Southern Utah | ||||
| JaJuan Nicholls | 0.8 | 67% | +2 | 83–78 |
| Jaiden Feroah | 0.7 | 67% | +2 | 83–78 |
Change is in Arkansas St's win chance, in points. Scores read Arkansas St, then Southern Utah. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Arkansas St 1-2WLL
- Nov 10L 65-82vs UT MartinDidn't cover −5.5 · Under 155.5
- Nov 6L 86-101at AlabamaCovered +24.5 · Over 177.5
- Nov 2W 71-70vs Toledo
- Last 3
- 1–2, scoring 74.0 and allowing 84.3
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–1
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 1 under
Southern Utah 3-1WWWL
- Nov 12L 59-88at High PointDidn't cover +22.5 · Under 158.5
- Nov 7W 143-49vs Bethesda
- Nov 5W 97-53vs Grace University
- Nov 2W 134-69vs West Coast Baptist
- Last 4
- 3–1, scoring 108.2 and allowing 64.8
- Against the spread, this season
- 0–1
- Totals, this season
- 0 over, 1 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Arkansas St | Southern Utah | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 102.4 210th | 103.3 194th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 107.3 157th | 113.7 318th |
| Possessions a game | 73.5 7th | 72.4 39th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 47.7% 342nd | 50.2% 206th |
| Opponents' shooting | 48.8% 56th | 49.6% 123rd |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 17.6% 127th | 20.5% 353rd |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 32.3% 148th | 34.2% 49th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.20 361st | 0.25 244th |
The widest gap: Arkansas St's offense (210th) against Southern Utah's defense (318th), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Arkansas St 39, Southern Utah 36
- First-half margin
- Arkansas St by 2.4
- First-half points, both teams
- 75.4
- Projected second half
- Arkansas St 44, Southern Utah 42
- Second-half points, both teams
- 85.3
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Arkansas St, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 3 · 34.7 scored, 46.7 allowed
- Southern Utah, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 4 · 55.0 scored, 30.0 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Arkansas St
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Layne TaylorG | 31 | 15.3 | 4.3 | 4.8 | 2.6 |
| 15+ pts 50% · 5+ ast 51% · 3+ threes 44% | |||||
| Tameron FergusonG | 24 | 9.8 | 3.7 | 2.2 | 1.2 |
| 10+ pts 47% · 4+ reb 47% · 2+ ast 62% | |||||
| Amadou DoumbiaF | 21 | 6.2 | 7.0 | 0.3 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 57% · 7+ reb 52% · 1+ threes 52% | |||||
| Delang MuonF | 20 | 6.2 | 4.5 | 0.9 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 58% · 5+ reb 45% · 1+ threes 48% | |||||
| Royal Blue SmithG | 19 | 6.9 | 2.8 | 2.3 | 1.5 |
| 5+ pts 64% · 3+ reb 49% · 2+ threes 41% | |||||
| Chaz WatsonG | 19 | 6.9 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 1.7 |
| 5+ pts 64% · 3+ reb 44% · 2+ threes 46% | |||||
| Jordan PykeG | 18 | 9.5 | 5.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 |
| 10+ pts 44% · 5+ reb 52% · 1+ threes 48% | |||||
| Aaron McGeeG | 17 | 9.0 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| 10+ pts 41% · 2+ reb 56% · 2+ ast 39% | |||||
Southern Utah
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaiden FeroahF | 23 | 10.5 | 6.0 | 1.6 | 1.0 |
| 10+ pts 52% · 6+ reb 52% · 2+ ast 44% | |||||
| Dylan SandersG | 19 | 7.7 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 1.3 |
| 10+ pts 31% · 2+ reb 60% · 2+ threes 36% | |||||
| Cale BarclayF | 19 | 8.1 | 3.7 | 2.4 | 0.3 |
| 10+ pts 34% · 4+ reb 47% · 3+ ast 41% | |||||
| Rashaad DavisG | 18 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 47% · 2+ reb 58% · 3+ ast 45% | |||||
| JaJuan NichollsF | 16 | 11.0 | 4.7 | 0.8 | 0.0 |
| 10+ pts 55% · 5+ reb 47% · 2+ ast 19% | |||||
| Chase DegraffenriedG | 16 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 57% · 3+ reb 45% · 1+ threes 56% | |||||
| Juok RiakF | 15 | 4.6 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 42% · 4+ reb 43% · 2+ ast 32% | |||||
| Anthony BrelandG | 15 | 8.9 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 1.3 |
| 10+ pts 40% · 3+ reb 44% · 2+ ast 41% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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