Youngstown St at Cincinnati
Wednesday, November 18, 2026, 7:30 PM ET at Fifth Third Arena. Youngstown St our rank 233 · 1-2; Cincinnati our rank 23 · 2-1.
Who will win Youngstown St vs Cincinnati?
The model gives Cincinnati a 99% chance to beat Youngstown State, with a projected score of Cincinnati 87, Youngstown St 60.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 95.4% of the time in 11,767 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cincinnati | |||||
| RileyG · 24 min | 13.4 | 3.3 | 4.2 | 15+ 39% | |
| Collins Jr.G · 27 min | 12.8 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 15+ 36% | |
| ColvinG · 24 min | 11.9 | 4.9 | 1.2 | 10+ 61% | |
| TejadaF · 22 min | 10.6 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 10+ 52% | |
| Youngstown St | |||||
| HolmstromG · 28 min | 10.8 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 10+ 54% | |
| HaynesG · 30 min | 8.1 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 10+ 34% | |
| AekinsG · 27 min | 8.1 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 10+ 34% | |
| AmoakoC · 22 min | 7.5 | 5.0 | 0.5 | 5+ 68% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without MJ Collins Jr.: Youngstown St 2%Cincinnati 98%
The white mark is the call with him: Cincinnati 99%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Cincinnati without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cincinnati | ||||
| MJ Collins Jr. | 3.8 | 98% | −1 | 61–85 |
| Tylen Riley | 3.0 | 99% | 0 | 61–86 |
| Myles Colvin | 2.5 | 99% | 0 | 61–86 |
| Amani Lyles | 2.3 | 99% | 0 | 61–86 |
| Youngstown St | ||||
| Jeff Nwankwo | 1.0 | 99% | 0 | 59–88 |
Change is in Cincinnati's win chance, in points. Scores read Youngstown St, then Cincinnati. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Youngstown St 1-2WLL
- Nov 10L 78-91at C MichiganDidn't cover +3.5 · Over 152.5
- Nov 6L 65-89at Ohio StateCovered +25.5 · Under 154.5
- Nov 2W 79-71at St Bonaventure
- Last 3
- 1–2, scoring 74.0 and allowing 83.7
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–1
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 1 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Youngstown St | Cincinnati | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 102.6 206th | 113.7 62nd |
| Points allowed per 100 | 110.9 258th | 91.7 8th |
| Possessions a game | 71.1 143rd | 70.8 184th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 52.3% 68th | 49.4% 255th |
| Opponents' shooting | 50.3% 171st | 49.5% 108th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 17.6% 124th | 18.3% 207th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 31.9% 170th | 32.8% 118th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.26 158th | 0.23 329th |
The widest gap: Cincinnati's defense (8th) against Youngstown St's offense (206th), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Youngstown St 27, Cincinnati 42
- First-half margin
- Cincinnati by 15.2
- First-half points, both teams
- 68.8
- Projected second half
- Youngstown St 33, Cincinnati 45
- Second-half points, both teams
- 77.9
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Youngstown St, first halves so far
- Led 0 of 3 · 33.0 scored, 41.3 allowed
- Cincinnati, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 3 · 35.0 scored, 31.7 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Youngstown St
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaiden HaynesG | 30 | 8.1 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 0.9 |
| 10+ pts 34% · 2+ ast 43% · 1+ threes 56% | |||||
| Linus HolmstromG | 28 | 10.8 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 2.5 |
| 10+ pts 54% · 3+ reb 44% · 2+ ast 43% | |||||
| Dom AekinsG | 27 | 8.1 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 0.8 |
| 10+ pts 34% · 3+ ast 48% · 1+ threes 53% | |||||
| Jeff NwankwoG | 25 | 6.4 | 4.3 | 0.8 | 1.1 |
| 5+ pts 60% · 4+ reb 57% · 1+ threes 62% | |||||
| Kelvin AmoakoC | 22 | 7.5 | 5.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 68% · 5+ reb 53% | |||||
| Japhet MoupadeleF | 18 | 6.2 | 2.8 | 0.5 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 58% · 3+ reb 48% · 1+ threes 41% | |||||
| Jermaine ColemanF | 14 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 35% · 2+ reb 41% · 1+ threes 54% | |||||
| Jayden TylerG | 14 | 3.9 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 34% · 2+ reb 18% · 1+ threes 48% | |||||
Cincinnati
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MJ Collins Jr.G | 27 | 12.8 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 1.8 |
| 15+ pts 36% · 2+ reb 61% · 2+ threes 49% | |||||
| Tylen RileyG | 24 | 13.4 | 3.3 | 4.2 | 1.3 |
| 15+ pts 39% · 3+ reb 59% · 4+ ast 58% | |||||
| Myles ColvinG | 24 | 11.9 | 4.9 | 1.2 | 2.0 |
| 10+ pts 61% · 5+ reb 51% · 2+ threes 53% | |||||
| Tyler TejadaF | 22 | 10.6 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 1.3 |
| 10+ pts 52% · 4+ reb 52% · 2+ ast 58% | |||||
| Eric MahaffeyG | 20 | 7.7 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 10+ pts 31% · 4+ reb 56% · 2+ ast 49% | |||||
| Amani LylesF | 17 | 7.9 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.7 |
| 10+ pts 32% · 2+ ast 45% · 1+ threes 48% | |||||
| David IwezeF | 16 | 5.4 | 3.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 50% · 4+ reb 51% · 1+ threes 31% | |||||
| Adlan ElaminF | 14 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 44% · 2+ reb 53% · 1+ threes 47% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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