Notre Dame 99, Villanova 75
Final. Women's · Sunday, November 1, 2026, 12:00 PM ET at Palazzo dello Sport. Notre Dame AP 13, our rank 17 · 3-0; Villanova our rank 39 · 1-2.
Who won Notre Dame vs Villanova?
Final: Notre Dame 99, Villanova 75. Before tip-off the model gave Notre Dame a 44% chance to win — an upset, with a projected margin of 2.0 points for Villanova.
Prediction made that morning; page updated November 13, 2026.
The call
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 50–60% have been right 55.7% of the time in 7,540 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip.
The game without one player
Without Jasmine Bascoe: Notre Dame 65%Villanova 35%
The white mark is the call with her: Villanova 56%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | Villanova without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Villanova | ||||
| Jasmine Bascoe | 6.2 | 35% | −21 | 71–67 |
| Kennedy Henry | 4.4 | 41% | −15 | 70–68 |
| Brooke Bender | 3.4 | 45% | −11 | 70–68 |
| Kelsey Joens | 2.9 | 47% | −9 | 69–69 |
| Notre Dame | ||||
| Hannah Hidalgo | 9.1 | 85% | +29 | 63–75 |
| Anaya Hardy | 5.9 | 77% | +21 | 65–73 |
| Madison St. Rose | 5.7 | 76% | +20 | 65–73 |
| Leah Macy | 2.3 | 65% | +9 | 67–71 |
Change is in Villanova's win chance, in points. Scores read Notre Dame, then Villanova. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Play-by-play
Team numbers
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesWin probability
Game chat
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Why the model sees it this way
The game in numbers
The matchup
Form
Notre Dame
No games yet this season: this is its first.
Villanova
No games yet this season: this is its first.
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Notre Dame | Villanova | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 113.6 12th | 110.4 21st |
| Points allowed per 100 | 80.8 24th | 87.3 70th |
| Possessions a game | 74.5 24th | 72.5 135th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 52.4% 3rd | 48.1% 46th |
| Opponents' shooting | 42.6% 31st | 48.1% 316th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 21.1% 22nd | 20.5% 12th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 36.7% 39th | 34.7% 90th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.21 219th | 0.20 257th |
The widest gap: Notre Dame's offense (12th) against Villanova's defense (70th), of 363 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Notre Dame 32, Villanova 33
- First-half margin
- Villanova by 1.1
- First-half points, both teams
- 65.4
- Tied at the half
- 4%
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Players to know
Notre Dame
- Hannah HidalgoG25.0 pts, 8.0 reb, 3.5 ast in 28 minLast 2: 23, 27 points+9.1
- Anaya HardyF19.0 pts, 9.5 reb, 0.0 ast in 23 minLast 2: 21, 17 points+5.9
- Madison St. RoseG16.0 pts, 5.0 reb, 3.5 ast in 28 minLast 2: 19, 13 points+5.7
- Leah MacyF20.5 pts, 5.5 reb, 4.5 ast in 26 minLast 2: 17, 24 points+2.3
Villanova
- Jasmine BascoeG27.5 pts, 3.0 reb, 5.0 ast in 34 minLast 2: 26, 29 points+6.2
- Kennedy HenryG16.5 pts, 5.0 reb, 1.5 ast in 26 minLast 2: 10, 23 points+4.4
- Brooke BenderF10.0 pts, 3.0 reb, 2.0 ast in 21 min+3.4
- Kelsey JoensG9.5 pts, 2.0 reb, 1.5 ast in 20 minLast 2: 12, 7 points+2.9
More games on Sun, Nov 1
All gamesNo other rated games that day.