Notre Dame Fighting Irish

Women's · Atlantic Coast Conference · 1-0, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: vs Stonehill · Fri 6 Nov, 7 PM ET

Stonehill0%100%Notre Dame

Projected 95-50 · Game page

Makes the tournament86%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 4.8

Wins the national title<1%Final Four 5% · projected 23-9

Net rating+29.6Rank 18 of 363 · offence 11, defence 33

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 23-9 (18 to 27 wins)
Projected conference record: 13-5
Wins or shares the conference title: 13%
Wins the conference tournament: 12%
Average seed if in the field: 4.8
A 1 seed: 3%

Makes the field86%
Round of 3274%
Sweet 1640%
Elite Eight15%
Final Four5%
Title game2%
Champion<1%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Sun 1 Nov	vs Villanovarank 39	Neutral	45%	68-70	W 99-75	Wrong
Fri 6 Nov7 PM ET	vs Stonehillrank 309	Home	100%	95-50	—
Tue 10 Nov7 PM ET	vs Detroit Mercyrank 278	Home	100%	93-51	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 86% · the next 7 days

No games this week

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	47.9%rank 5	45.3%rank 268	44.7%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin	22.3%rank 34	22.8%rank 315	23.8%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin	34.2%rank 91	33.9%rank 253	33.5%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin	20.5%rank 125	18.8%rank 47	20.5%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 1.0 won, 0.5 expected (+0.6)
Opponents' three-point shooting: −3.1 points a game (they shot 32.1%, league 28.5%)
Opponents' free throws: −0.5 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: +23.4
Last season's net rating: +32.1
Last season's minutes returning: 20%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: +5.4
Change since preseason: +6.2

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 111.6 (rank 11)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 82.0 (rank 33)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 74.3 (rank 72)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: +19.2 (rank 36)

Atlantic Coast Conference by rating

18 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Louisville	2-0	0-0	+35.8	111.3	75.5	8
2	Duke	1-0	0-0	+33.5	108.5	75.0	12
3	Notre Dame	1-0	0-0	+29.6	111.6	82.0	18
4	North Carolina	0-1	0-0	+29.4	107.6	78.2	19
5	NC State	2-0	0-0	+28.3	107.5	79.3	23
6	Virginia Tech	2-0	0-0	+22.9	103.6	80.7	31
7	California	1-0	0-0	+22.4	103.6	81.2	32
8	Miami	1-0	0-0	+18.9	102.4	83.4	40
9	Virginia	1-0	0-0	+17.0	101.2	84.3	47
10	Syracuse	1-0	0-0	+15.7	98.8	83.1	53
11	Clemson	1-0	0-0	+15.6	100.7	85.0	54
12	Stanford	1-1	0-0	+14.3	100.3	85.9	62
13	Florida State	2-0	0-0	+12.7	99.9	87.2	68
14	Georgia Tech	1-0	0-0	+12.3	97.8	85.5	71
15	SMU	2-0	0-0	+2.7	89.5	86.8	114
16	Wake Forest	1-0	0-0	+0.8	90.8	90.0	133
17	Pittsburgh	1-0	0-0	−1.9	91.2	93.1	158
18	Boston College	0-1	0-0	−4.8	89.5	94.3	188