Clemson Tigers

Women's · Atlantic Coast Conference · 1-0, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: vs ETSU · Thu 5 Nov, 7 PM ET

ETSU9%91%Clemson

Projected 72-54 · Game page

Makes the tournament32%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 8.5

Wins the national title0%Final Four <1% · projected 21-12

Net rating+15.6Rank 54 of 363 · offence 55, defence 55

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 21-12 (16 to 26 wins)
Projected conference record: 9-9
Wins or shares the conference title: <1%
Wins the conference tournament: 1%
Average seed if in the field: 8.5
A 1 seed: 0%

Makes the field32%
Round of 3214%
Sweet 161%
Elite Eight<1%
Final Four<1%
Title game0%
Champion0%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Mon 2 Nov	vs Radfordrank 236	Home	98%	91-64	W 68-47	Right
Thu 5 Nov7 PM ET	vs East Tennessee Staterank 155	Home	91%	72-54	Live
Sun 8 Nov2 PM ET	vs UNC Greensbororank 293	Home	99%	77-47	—
Thu 12 Nov7 PM ET	vs South Carolinarank 2	Home	7%	62-81	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 32% · the next 7 days

Thu 5 Nov: vs East Tennessee StateA win: 32% · a loss: 30%+2 pts
Sun 8 Nov: vs UNC GreensboroA win: 32% · a loss: 31%+1 pts
Thu 12 Nov: vs South CarolinaA win: 44% · a loss: 31%+13 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Mackenzie NelsonG · transfer from Virginia Tech	1	33.0	16.0	2.0	3.0	+3.6	+3.4
Mia MooreG	1	31.0	9.0	3.0	2.0	+5.8	+4.4
Taliyah HendersonG · transfer from North Carolina	1	30.0	15.0	6.0	1.0	+5.0	+3.8
Rusne AugustinaiteG	1	23.0	0.0	2.0	1.0	+4.0	+2.5
Edie ClarkeF · transfer from Saint Mary's	1	22.0	5.0	5.0	0.0	+3.1	+2.1
Holland HarrisG	1	19.0	11.0	2.0	2.0	+2.2	+1.5
Meeyah GreenG	1	12.0	3.0	1.0	2.0	−1.7	+0.1
Julia ScottF	1	11.0	2.0	2.0	1.0	−1.7	+0.1
Kimora FieldsF	1	10.0	2.0	3.0	1.0	−1.6	+0.1
Amaia JacksonG	1	4.0	3.0	0.0	1.0	+1.8	+0.3
Yakiya MiltonF · transfer from USC	1	3.0	2.0	3.0	0.0	+4.3	+0.3
Jenna LawrenceF · transfer from Arkansas	1	2.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	+3.9	+0.2

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	45.0%rank 116	44.5%rank 117	44.7%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin	22.5%rank 43	24.0%rank 108	23.8%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin	31.6%rank 326	32.9%rank 92	33.5%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin	18.8%rank 323	19.6%rank 91	20.5%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 1.0 won, 1.0 expected (0.0)
Opponents' three-point shooting: +3.0 points a game (they shot 21.4%, league 28.5%)
Opponents' free throws: −1.9 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: +16.4
Last season's net rating: +22.9
Last season's minutes returning: 32%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: +6.0
Change since preseason: −0.8

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 100.7 (rank 55)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 85.0 (rank 55)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 70.7 (rank 355)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: −10.7 (rank 188)

Atlantic Coast Conference by rating

18 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Louisville	2-0	0-0	+35.8	111.3	75.5	8
2	Duke	1-0	0-0	+33.5	108.5	75.0	12
3	Notre Dame	1-0	0-0	+29.6	111.6	82.0	18
4	North Carolina	0-1	0-0	+29.4	107.6	78.2	19
5	NC State	2-0	0-0	+28.3	107.5	79.3	23
6	Virginia Tech	2-0	0-0	+22.9	103.6	80.7	31
7	California	1-0	0-0	+22.4	103.6	81.2	32
8	Miami	1-0	0-0	+18.9	102.4	83.4	40
9	Virginia	1-0	0-0	+17.0	101.2	84.3	47
10	Syracuse	1-0	0-0	+15.7	98.8	83.1	53
11	Clemson	1-0	0-0	+15.6	100.7	85.0	54
12	Stanford	1-1	0-0	+14.3	100.3	85.9	62
13	Florida State	2-0	0-0	+12.7	99.9	87.2	68
14	Georgia Tech	1-0	0-0	+12.3	97.8	85.5	71
15	SMU	2-0	0-0	+2.7	89.5	86.8	114
16	Wake Forest	1-0	0-0	+0.8	90.8	90.0	133
17	Pittsburgh	1-0	0-0	−1.9	91.2	93.1	158
18	Boston College	0-1	0-0	−4.8	89.5	94.3	188