Wake Forest Demon Deacons

Women's · Atlantic Coast Conference · 1-0, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: vs Presbyterian · Thu 5 Nov, 6 PM ET

Presbyterian1%99%Wake Forest

Projected 79-47 · Game page

Makes the tournament0%From 20,000 simulated seasons

Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 12-19

Net rating+0.8Rank 133 of 363 · offence 148, defence 119

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 12-19 (9 to 16 wins)
Projected conference record: 3-15
Wins or shares the conference title: 0%
Wins the conference tournament: 0%
Average seed if in the field: —
A 1 seed: 0%

Makes the field0%
Round of 32<1%
Sweet 160%
Elite Eight0%
Final Four0%
Title game0%
Champion0%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Mon 2 Nov	vs South Carolina Upstaterank 305	Home	98%	89-61	W 65-58	Right
Thu 5 Nov6 PM ET	vs Presbyterianrank 362	Home	99%	79-47	Live
Sun 8 Nov12:30 PM ET	vs Mercerrank 307	Home	93%	75-54	—
Thu 12 Nov11:30 AM ET	vs UNC Wilmingtonrank 331	Home	95%	76-53	—

Rooting guide

Chance of the conference title now: 0% · the next 7 days

Thu 5 Nov: vs PresbyterianA win: 0% · a loss: 0%0 pts
Sun 8 Nov: vs MercerA win: 0% · a loss: 0%0 pts
Thu 12 Nov: vs UNC WilmingtonA win: 0% · a loss: 0%0 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Mary CarterG	1	36.0	11.0	6.0	1.0	+1.5	+2.4
Breauna WareG · transfer from Wisconsin	1	28.0	6.0	1.0	3.0	+1.5	+1.9
Aurora SorbyeG	1	27.0	11.0	3.0	1.0	0.0	+1.1
Opal BirdF	1	24.0	8.0	3.0	3.0	0.0	+0.9
Oshauna HollandG	1	24.0	19.0	5.0	0.0	−1.1	+0.5
Grace GalbavyG	1	19.0	10.0	3.0	0.0	+0.3	+0.8
Helena DanielewiczF	1	17.0	0.0	4.0	1.0	−1.1	+0.3
Madisyn JordanG	1	12.0	0.0	2.0	0.0	−1.0	+0.3
Mckenzie SwansonF	1	8.0	0.0	2.0	0.0	−0.8	+0.2
Adora NwudeG	1	5.0	0.0	0.0	1.0	−0.7	+0.1

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	43.7%rank 296	44.7%rank 128	44.7%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin	23.5%rank 114	24.3%rank 84	23.8%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin	30.1%rank 362	35.3%rank 325	33.5%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin	22.2%rank 37	19.1%rank 59	20.5%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 1.0 won, 1.0 expected (0.0)
Opponents' three-point shooting: +0.8 points a game (they shot 26.7%, league 28.5%)
Opponents' free throws: +0.1 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: +5.7
Last season's net rating: +3.0
Last season's minutes returning: 52%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: +1.1
Change since preseason: −4.9

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 90.8 (rank 148)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 90.0 (rank 119)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 72.9 (rank 213)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: −17.8 (rank 231)

Atlantic Coast Conference by rating

18 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Louisville	2-0	0-0	+35.8	111.3	75.5	8
2	Duke	1-0	0-0	+33.5	108.5	75.0	12
3	Notre Dame	1-0	0-0	+29.6	111.6	82.0	18
4	North Carolina	0-1	0-0	+29.4	107.6	78.2	19
5	NC State	2-0	0-0	+28.3	107.5	79.3	23
6	Virginia Tech	2-0	0-0	+22.9	103.6	80.7	31
7	California	1-0	0-0	+22.4	103.6	81.2	32
8	Miami	1-0	0-0	+18.9	102.4	83.4	40
9	Virginia	1-0	0-0	+17.0	101.2	84.3	47
10	Syracuse	1-0	0-0	+15.7	98.8	83.1	53
11	Clemson	1-0	0-0	+15.6	100.7	85.0	54
12	Stanford	1-1	0-0	+14.3	100.3	85.9	62
13	Florida State	2-0	0-0	+12.7	99.9	87.2	68
14	Georgia Tech	1-0	0-0	+12.3	97.8	85.5	71
15	SMU	2-0	0-0	+2.7	89.5	86.8	114
16	Wake Forest	1-0	0-0	+0.8	90.8	90.0	133
17	Pittsburgh	1-0	0-0	−1.9	91.2	93.1	158
18	Boston College	0-1	0-0	−4.8	89.5	94.3	188