Boston College Eagles

Women's · Atlantic Coast Conference · 0-1, 0-0 in conference · last L1

Next: at Harvard · Thu 5 Nov, 7 PM ET

Boston College5%95%Harvard

Projected 56-78 · Game page

Makes the tournament<1%From 20,000 simulated seasons

Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 6-24

Net rating−5.8Rank 190 of 363 · offence 168, defence 236

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 6-24 (3 to 10 wins)
Projected conference record: 2-16
Wins or shares the conference title: 0%
Wins the conference tournament: 0%
Average seed if in the field: —
A 1 seed: 0%

Makes the field<1%
Round of 320%
Sweet 160%
Elite Eight0%
Final Four0%
Title game0%
Champion0%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Mon 2 Nov	vs Holy Crossrank 178	Home	69%	82-75	L 54-64	Wrong
Thu 5 Nov7 PM ET	at Harvardrank 58	Away	5%	56-78	Live
Wed 11 Nov6 PM ET	vs UMass Lowellrank 296	Home	85%	73-59	—

Rooting guide

Chance of the conference title now: 0% · the next 7 days

Thu 5 Nov: at HarvardA win: 0% · a loss: 0%0 pts
Wed 11 Nov: vs UMass LowellA win: 0% · a loss: 0%0 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Daniele PaunksnyteG	1	37.0	13.0	14.0	1.0	−1.3	+0.6
Jocelyne GrierG	1	31.0	13.0	1.0	2.0	−0.6	+0.9
Megan HollingsworthG · transfer from Pitt	1	31.0	4.0	6.0	1.0	−2.3	−0.1
Athena TomlinsonG	1	30.0	5.0	2.0	3.0	−1.2	+0.5
Nuria AusaverriF	1	29.0	6.0	3.0	0.0	−1.2	+0.5
Eunicia SalgadoF	1	24.0	10.0	3.0	1.0	−1.1	+0.5
Nora ArozenaF	1	11.0	1.0	2.0	0.0	−0.8	+0.3
Natalia Hall-RosaG · transfer from Seton Hall	1	7.0	2.0	1.0	0.0	+2.2	+0.6

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	42.4%rank 346	45.6%rank 299	44.6%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin	24.1%rank 252	23.5%rank 254	23.9%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin	31.0%rank 341	33.6%rank 231	33.4%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin	21.2%rank 88	20.1%rank 134	20.4%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 0.0 won, 0.7 expected (−0.7)
Opponents' three-point shooting: +3.3 points a game (they shot 22.2%, league 28.3%)
Opponents' free throws: +0.8 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: −0.9
Last season's net rating: −6.6
Last season's minutes returning: 25%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: +0.1
Change since preseason: −4.9

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 89.2 (rank 168)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 94.9 (rank 236)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 73.6 (rank 126)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: −3.2 (rank 152)

Atlantic Coast Conference by rating

18 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Louisville	2-0	0-0	+35.8	111.1	75.3	7
2	Duke	1-0	0-0	+33.4	108.2	74.8	12
3	Notre Dame	1-0	0-0	+29.6	111.3	81.7	18
4	North Carolina	0-1	0-0	+29.4	107.4	78.0	19
5	NC State	2-0	0-0	+28.2	107.3	79.1	23
6	Virginia Tech	2-0	0-0	+22.8	103.3	80.5	31
7	California	1-0	0-0	+22.4	103.3	80.9	32
8	Miami	1-0	0-0	+18.9	102.1	83.2	40
9	Virginia	1-0	0-0	+16.9	101.0	84.1	49
10	Syracuse	1-0	0-0	+15.7	98.6	82.9	54
11	Clemson	1-0	0-0	+15.6	100.4	84.8	55
12	Stanford	1-1	0-0	+14.3	100.0	85.7	63
13	Georgia Tech	1-0	0-0	+12.3	97.5	85.3	71
14	Florida State	2-0	0-0	+12.1	100.2	88.1	72
15	SMU	2-0	0-0	+2.7	89.2	86.6	114
16	Wake Forest	2-0	0-0	+0.4	91.8	91.4	139
17	Pittsburgh	1-0	0-0	−1.9	90.9	92.9	157
18	Boston College	0-1	0-0	−5.8	89.2	94.9	190