UMass Lowell River Hawks

Women's · America East Conference · 2-0, 0-0 in conference · last W2

Next: at Canisius · Sun 8 Nov, 12 PM ET

UMass Lowell42%58%Canisius

Projected 60-63 · Game page

Makes the tournament1%From 20,000 simulated seasons

Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 12-20

Net rating−16.3Rank 296 of 363 · offence 286, defence 303

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 12-20 (7 to 17 wins)
Projected conference record: 4-12
Wins or shares the conference title: <1%
Wins the conference tournament: 1%
Average seed if in the field: —
A 1 seed: 0%

Makes the field1%
Round of 320%
Sweet 160%
Elite Eight0%
Final Four0%
Title game0%
Champion0%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Mon 2 Nov	vs Saint Anselmnot Division I	Home	—	—	W 77-53
Thu 5 Nov	vs Niagararank 362	Home	82%	68-55	W 78-53	Right
Sun 8 Nov12 PM ET	at Canisiusrank 314	Away	42%	60-63	—
Wed 11 Nov6 PM ET	at Boston Collegerank 194	Away	16%	60-73	—

Rooting guide

Chance of the conference title now: <1% · the next 7 days

Sun 8 Nov: at CanisiusA win: <1% · a loss: <1%0 pts
Wed 11 Nov: at Boston CollegeA win: 1% · a loss: <1%0 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Nia ChimaF	2	26.0	11.0	8.5	0.0	−3.9	−0.8
Milena LundG	2	25.5	6.5	3.0	4.0	−2.6	−0.2
Maddie RiceG	2	21.0	7.0	2.0	0.5	−3.9	−0.7
Kayla SolomonG	2	20.5	13.0	3.5	1.5	−2.3	−0.1
Kylie DiazF	2	18.5	5.0	6.5	1.5	−2.3	0.0
Izabella AspF	2	16.0	6.0	4.0	0.5	−2.3	0.0
Achol AgokF	2	16.0	4.0	6.0	0.5	−2.2	0.0
Carla SubiratsG	2	14.5	5.0	2.0	2.5	−6.8	−1.2
Tyanna MedinaG	2	14.5	9.5	2.5	1.0	−5.6	−0.9
Yazmin EdwardsG	2	13.5	9.0	1.5	0.5	−2.1	0.0
Hedda HakansonG	2	12.5	0.0	1.5	1.5	−2.2	0.0
Emina KamericG	2	2.5	1.5	0.5	0.0	−1.6	0.0

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	44.8%rank 138	45.3%rank 250	44.7%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin	25.0%rank 303	25.2%rank 41	23.9%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin	35.6%rank 30	31.4%rank 50	33.3%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin	20.8%rank 145	22.4%rank 311	20.8%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 1.0 won, 0.8 expected (+0.2)
Opponents' three-point shooting: −3.4 points a game (they shot 40.0%, league 28.6%)
Opponents' free throws: −0.7 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

2 games played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: −22.1
Last season's net rating: −27.5
Last season's minutes returning: 39%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: 0.0
Change since preseason: +5.8

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 82.2 (rank 286)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 98.5 (rank 303)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 71.6 (rank 319)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: −35.6 (rank 298)

America East Conference by rating

9 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Vermont	2-0	0-0	+3.6	96.2	92.6	107
2	NJIT	2-0	0-0	−2.4	85.7	88.1	164
3	UMBC	2-0	0-0	−3.0	87.8	90.8	174
4	Bryant	2-0	0-0	−5.6	87.5	93.1	189
5	UAlbany	2-0	0-0	−5.9	86.2	92.0	191
6	Binghamton	0-1	0-0	−7.2	86.4	93.5	203
7	Maine	1-0	0-0	−7.2	87.9	95.2	206
8	New Hampshire	1-1	0-0	−15.5	80.4	95.9	291
9	UMass Lowell	2-0	0-0	−16.3	82.2	98.5	296