Vermont Catamounts

Women's · America East Conference · 1-0, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: vs Quinnipiac · Thu 5 Nov, 7 PM ET

Quinnipiac21%79%Vermont

Projected 68-57 · Game page

Makes the tournament46%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 13.6

Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 25-7

Net rating+6.2Rank 95 of 363 · offence 100, defence 91

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 25-7 (19 to 30 wins)
Projected conference record: 13-3
Wins or shares the conference title: 63%
Wins the conference tournament: 44%
Average seed if in the field: 13.6
A 1 seed: 0%

Makes the field46%
Round of 322%
Sweet 16<1%
Elite Eight<1%
Final Four0%
Title game0%
Champion0%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result
Mon 2 Nov	vs Keene Statenot Division I	Home	—	—	W 96-37
Thu 5 Nov7 PM ET	vs Quinnipiacrank 156	Home	79%	68-57	Live
Sun 8 Nov2 PM ET	at Fairfieldrank 56	Away	19%	59-72	—
Wed 11 Nov6 PM ET	vs Oregonrank 20	Home	15%	58-73	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 46% · the next 7 days

Thu 5 Nov: vs QuinnipiacA win: 46% · a loss: 46%0 pts
Sun 8 Nov: at FairfieldA win: 49% · a loss: 45%+4 pts
Wed 11 Nov: vs OregonA win: 48% · a loss: 46%+2 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Sienna Papanastasiou-ThomasG	1	27.0	20.0	4.0	2.0	+0.3	+1.2
Jacklynn HosierG	1	24.0	8.0	6.0	9.0	+1.1	+1.4
Emma HaanG	1	20.0	12.0	7.0	2.0	+2.0	+1.5
Meja JaegerskogF · transfer from Saint Joseph's	1	20.0	4.0	3.0	1.0	+1.8	+1.4
Madison HallF	1	19.0	8.0	5.0	1.0	+0.4	+0.9
Catherine GilweeG	1	18.0	8.0	1.0	4.0	+0.9	+1.0
Neta MaysharG	1	18.0	18.0	2.0	0.0	+0.5	+0.8
Savanna CrealF	1	17.0	7.0	5.0	1.0	+2.7	+1.4
Piper RisdonF	1	10.0	4.0	2.0	0.0	+2.4	+0.8
Maren MaxonG	1	10.0	0.0	1.0	0.0	+1.1	+0.6
Lia HansonG	1	10.0	7.0	2.0	1.0	+1.8	+0.7
Maisie KeyesG	1	7.0	0.0	1.0	2.0	+0.7	+0.3

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	44.6%rank 139	44.6%rank 134	44.6%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin	23.9%rank 151	23.9%rank 128	23.9%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin	33.5%rank 140	33.5%rank 137	33.5%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin	20.4%rank 137	20.4%rank 144	20.4%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: +6.2
Last season's net rating: +12.7
Last season's minutes returning: 49%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: −0.3
Change since preseason: 0.0

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 94.4 (rank 100)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 88.2 (rank 91)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 70.0 (rank 361)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: —

America East Conference by rating

9 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Vermont	1-0	0-0	+6.2	94.4	88.2	95
2	NJIT	2-0	0-0	−2.5	85.5	88.0	165
3	UMBC	2-0	0-0	−3.1	87.6	90.7	175
4	UAlbany	1-0	0-0	−4.3	88.2	92.6	187
5	Bryant	2-0	0-0	−5.7	87.3	93.0	190
6	Binghamton	0-1	0-0	−7.1	86.3	93.4	203
7	Maine	1-0	0-0	−7.2	87.8	95.0	205
8	New Hampshire	1-1	0-0	−15.6	80.2	95.8	292
9	UMass Lowell	2-0	0-0	−16.4	82.1	98.4	296