Fairfield Stags
Next: vs Binghamton · Fri 6 Nov, 7 PM ETProjected 78-54 · Game page
Makes the tournament84%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 12.0
Wins the national title0%Final Four <1% · projected 30-5
Net rating+15.4Rank 56 of 363 · offence 48, defence 66
Season outlook
- Projected record
- 30-5 (26 to 33 wins)
- Projected conference record
- 20-0
- Wins or shares the conference title
- 94%
- Wins the conference tournament
- 81%
- Average seed if in the field
- 12.0
- A 1 seed
- 0%
- Makes the field84%
- Round of 3216%
- Sweet 162%
- Elite Eight<1%
- Final Four<1%
- Title game<1%
- Champion0%
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Where | Win chance | Projected | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 6 Nov7 PM ET | vs Binghamtonrank 204 | Home | 96% | 78-54 | — | |
| Sun 8 Nov2 PM ET | vs Vermontrank 95 | Home | 81% | 72-59 | — | |
| Thu 12 Nov7 PM ET | at Seton Hallrank 76 | Away | 49% | 65-66 | — |
Rooting guide
- Fri 6 Nov: vs BinghamtonA win: 84% · a loss: 81%+3 pts
- Sun 8 Nov: vs VermontA win: 84% · a loss: 84%0 pts
- Thu 12 Nov: at Seton HallA win: 85% · a loss: 84%+2 pts
Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.
Style and luck
Every teamThe Four Factors adjusted for opponents
| Offence | Defence | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin | 44.7%rank 137 | 44.7%rank 132 | 44.7% |
| TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin | 23.8%rank 144 | 23.8%rank 126 | 23.8% |
| Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin | 33.5%rank 137 | 33.5%rank 133 | 33.5% |
| Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin | 20.5%rank 127 | 20.5%rank 139 | 20.5% |
Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.
Luck so far
- Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime
- None yet
Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.
Rating this season
- Preseason net rating
- +15.4
- Last season's net rating
- +19.9
- Last season's minutes returning
- 61%
- Transfers in, weighted by minutes
- −2.9
- Change since preseason
- 0.0
- Offence, points per 100 possessions
- 101.4 (rank 48)
- Defence, points allowed per 100
- 86.0 (rank 66)
- Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes
- 73.1 (rank 183)
- Schedule so far, opponents' average
- —
Metro Conference by rating
| # | Team | Record | Conference | Net | Offence | Defence | National rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fairfield | 0-0 | 0-0 | +15.4 | 101.4 | 86.0 | 56 |
| 2 | Quinnipiac | 1-0 | 0-0 | −1.9 | 90.0 | 91.9 | 159 |
| 3 | Siena | 1-0 | 0-0 | −9.4 | 86.7 | 96.0 | 226 |
| 4 | Sacred Heart | 0-1 | 0-0 | −15.5 | 80.0 | 95.5 | 291 |
| 5 | Marist | 0-1 | 0-0 | −15.6 | 82.9 | 98.4 | 292 |
| 6 | Manhattan | 1-0 | 0-0 | −16.1 | 80.8 | 96.8 | 294 |
| 7 | Merrimack | 0-1 | 0-0 | −16.5 | 78.8 | 95.3 | 297 |
| 8 | Mount St. Mary's | 0-1 | 0-0 | −18.1 | 80.1 | 98.2 | 311 |
| 9 | Rider | 0-1 | 0-0 | −19.4 | 75.6 | 95.0 | 320 |
| 10 | Iona | 1-1 | 0-0 | −19.6 | 83.7 | 103.3 | 323 |
| 11 | Canisius | 0-0 | 0-0 | −21.1 | 78.2 | 99.2 | 332 |
| 12 | Saint Peter's | 0-1 | 0-0 | −26.3 | 76.9 | 103.2 | 350 |
| 13 | Niagara | 0-1 | 0-0 | −30.9 | 70.0 | 100.9 | 359 |