Siena Saints
Makes the tournament3%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 15.4
Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 20-14
Net rating−9.3Rank 226 of 363 · offence 216, defence 254
Season outlook
- Projected record
- 20-14 (13 to 26 wins)
- Projected conference record
- 12-8
- Wins or shares the conference title
- 1%
- Wins the conference tournament
- 3%
- Average seed if in the field
- 15.4
- A 1 seed
- 0%
- Makes the field3%
- Round of 320%
- Sweet 160%
- Elite Eight0%
- Final Four0%
- Title game0%
- Champion0%
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Where | Win chance | Projected | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 2 Nov | vs Brownrank 185 | Home | 30% | 74-82 | W 82-71 | Wrong |
| Thu 5 Nov6 PM ET | at Mainerank 177 | Away | 23% | 62-73 | Live | |
| Sun 8 Nov4 PM ET | vs Binghamtonrank 204 | Home | 59% | 68-65 | — | |
| Wed 11 Nov6 PM ET | at Syracuserank 52 | Away | 2% | 56-83 | — |
Rooting guide
- Thu 5 Nov: at MaineA win: 1% · a loss: 1%0 pts
- Sun 8 Nov: vs BinghamtonA win: 1% · a loss: 1%0 pts
- Wed 11 Nov: at SyracuseA win: 2% · a loss: 1%+1 pts
Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.
Players
| Player | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Rating | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Francesca SchiroG | 1 | 38.0 | 21.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | +0.5 | +1.9 |
| Karissa AntoineG | 1 | 33.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 4.0 | −3.0 | −0.5 |
| Nicole MeliousG | 1 | 31.0 | 25.0 | 6.0 | 0.0 | −2.5 | −0.2 |
| Myanna HatchetteG | 1 | 31.0 | 7.0 | 2.0 | 4.0 | −3.0 | −0.5 |
| Caydence HadleyG | 1 | 27.0 | 10.0 | 4.0 | 2.0 | −3.2 | −0.5 |
| Kaiya Rain TuckerG | 1 | 23.0 | 9.0 | 11.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +0.9 |
| Stella ZiogasG | 1 | 10.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | −2.4 | −0.1 |
| Dany DiazG | 1 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | −2.2 | 0.0 |
| Alazne CanalesG | 1 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −2.2 | 0.0 |
Style and luck
Every teamThe Four Factors adjusted for opponents
| Offence | Defence | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin | 44.2%rank 260 | 45.6%rank 291 | 44.7% |
| TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin | 23.9%rank 250 | 24.4%rank 79 | 23.8% |
| Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin | 34.3%rank 86 | 36.3%rank 351 | 33.5% |
| Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin | 19.6%rank 271 | 18.8%rank 44 | 20.5% |
Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.
Luck so far
- Wins against the pre-game chances
- 1.0 won, 0.3 expected (+0.7)
- Opponents' three-point shooting
- −2.3 points a game (they shot 31.0%, league 28.4%)
- Opponents' free throws
- +1.5 points a game
- Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime
- None yet
Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.
Rating this season
- Preseason net rating
- −13.7
- Last season's net rating
- −12.6
- Last season's minutes returning
- 49%
- Transfers in, weighted by minutes
- −0.4
- Change since preseason
- +4.4
- Offence, points per 100 possessions
- 86.6 (rank 216)
- Defence, points allowed per 100
- 95.9 (rank 254)
- Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes
- 75.3 (rank 28)
- Schedule so far, opponents' average
- −4.3 (rank 155)
Metro Conference by rating
| # | Team | Record | Conference | Net | Offence | Defence | National rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fairfield | 0-0 | 0-0 | +15.4 | 101.3 | 85.9 | 55 |
| 2 | Quinnipiac | 1-0 | 0-0 | −1.9 | 89.9 | 91.8 | 160 |
| 3 | Siena | 1-0 | 0-0 | −9.3 | 86.6 | 95.9 | 226 |
| 4 | Sacred Heart | 0-1 | 0-0 | −15.6 | 79.9 | 95.5 | 291 |
| 5 | Marist | 0-1 | 0-0 | −15.6 | 82.8 | 98.4 | 292 |
| 6 | Manhattan | 1-0 | 0-0 | −16.1 | 80.7 | 96.7 | 294 |
| 7 | Merrimack | 0-1 | 0-0 | −16.5 | 78.7 | 95.2 | 297 |
| 8 | Mount St. Mary's | 0-1 | 0-0 | −18.1 | 80.0 | 98.1 | 311 |
| 9 | Rider | 0-1 | 0-0 | −19.4 | 75.5 | 95.0 | 320 |
| 10 | Iona | 1-1 | 0-0 | −19.6 | 83.7 | 103.2 | 323 |
| 11 | Canisius | 0-0 | 0-0 | −21.1 | 78.1 | 99.1 | 332 |
| 12 | Saint Peter's | 0-1 | 0-0 | −26.3 | 76.8 | 103.1 | 350 |
| 13 | Niagara | 0-1 | 0-0 | −30.9 | 69.9 | 100.9 | 359 |