Mount St. Mary's Mountaineers

Women's · Metro Conference · 0-1, 0-0 in conference · last L1

Next: at UMBC · Thu 5 Nov, 6 PM ET

Mount St Marys13%87%UMBC

Projected 55-71 · Game page

Makes the tournament<1%From 20,000 simulated seasons

Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 12-21

Net rating−18.1Rank 311 of 363 · offence 307, defence 293

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 12-21 (7 to 18 wins)
Projected conference record: 9-11
Wins or shares the conference title: <1%
Wins the conference tournament: <1%
Average seed if in the field: —
A 1 seed: 0%

Makes the field<1%
Round of 320%
Sweet 160%
Elite Eight0%
Final Four0%
Title game0%
Champion0%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Mon 2 Nov	vs Navyrank 101	Home	21%	71-83	L 63-91	Right
Thu 5 Nov6 PM ET	at UMBCrank 193	Away	13%	55-71	Live
Sun 8 Nov2 PM ET	vs UAlbanyrank 187	Home	31%	60-66	—
Wed 11 Nov6 PM ET	at Lehighrank 121	Away	5%	55-76	—

Rooting guide

Chance of the conference title now: <1% · the next 7 days

Thu 5 Nov: at UMBCA win: <1% · a loss: <1%0 pts
Sun 8 Nov: vs UAlbanyA win: <1% · a loss: <1%0 pts
Wed 11 Nov: at LehighA win: <1% · a loss: <1%0 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Kiyla FowlerG	1	30.0	5.0	1.0	1.0	−2.7	−0.3
Valentina SaricF · transfer from N Arizona	1	26.0	13.0	5.0	1.0	−4.4	−1.1
Alana PowellG	1	25.0	12.0	2.0	6.0	−2.0	+0.1
Lenora NkangwenF	1	25.0	5.0	6.0	2.0	−4.7	−1.2
Jayla KoserG	1	22.0	16.0	6.0	1.0	−2.5	−0.1
Nyodie GuerardG	1	21.0	3.0	3.0	2.0	−5.2	−1.2
Eva AndrewsG · transfer from NC A&T	1	18.0	0.0	4.0	0.0	−3.6	−0.5
Thelma BarbitchG · transfer from Charleston So	1	15.0	2.0	2.0	0.0	−5.2	−0.8
Wesleigh FergusonG	1	12.0	2.0	3.0	1.0	−3.7	−0.3
Karmen McDuffieG	1	3.0	5.0	0.0	0.0	−2.0	0.0
Rachael ChilickiF	1	3.0	0.0	1.0	1.0	−2.0	0.0

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	43.5%rank 308	47.0%rank 344	44.7%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin	24.6%rank 302	22.9%rank 306	23.8%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin	30.2%rank 358	35.8%rank 342	33.5%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin	20.1%rank 239	20.2%rank 126	20.5%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 0.0 won, 0.2 expected (−0.2)
Opponents' three-point shooting: −9.1 points a game (they shot 39.3%, league 28.5%)
Opponents' free throws: +2.9 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: −15.6
Last season's net rating: −13.3
Last season's minutes returning: 29%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: −2.0
Change since preseason: −2.5

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 80.1 (rank 307)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 98.2 (rank 293)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 74.4 (rank 66)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: +5.2 (rank 91)

Metro Conference by rating

13 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Fairfield	0-0	0-0	+15.4	101.4	86.0	56
2	Quinnipiac	1-0	0-0	−1.9	90.0	91.9	159
3	Siena	1-0	0-0	−9.4	86.7	96.0	226
4	Sacred Heart	0-1	0-0	−15.5	80.0	95.5	291
5	Marist	0-1	0-0	−15.6	82.9	98.4	292
6	Manhattan	1-0	0-0	−16.1	80.8	96.8	294
7	Merrimack	0-1	0-0	−16.5	78.8	95.3	297
8	Mount St. Mary's	0-1	0-0	−18.1	80.1	98.2	311
9	Rider	0-1	0-0	−19.4	75.6	95.0	320
10	Iona	1-1	0-0	−19.6	83.7	103.3	323
11	Canisius	0-0	0-0	−21.1	78.2	99.2	332
12	Saint Peter's	0-1	0-0	−26.3	76.9	103.2	350
13	Niagara	0-1	0-0	−30.9	70.0	100.9	359