UAlbany Great Danes
Next: at Mount St Marys · Sun 8 Nov, 2 PM ETProjected 66-59 · Game page
Makes the tournament9%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 14.8
Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 18-15
Net rating−5.9Rank 191 of 363 · offence 225, defence 162
Season outlook
- Projected record
- 18-15 (12 to 24 wins)
- Projected conference record
- 8-8
- Wins or shares the conference title
- 9%
- Wins the conference tournament
- 9%
- Average seed if in the field
- 14.8
- A 1 seed
- 0%
- Makes the field9%
- Round of 32<1%
- Sweet 160%
- Elite Eight0%
- Final Four0%
- Title game0%
- Champion0%
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Where | Win chance | Projected | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 2 Nov | at Northeasternrank 290 | Away | 61% | 76-72 | W 65-61 | Right |
| Thu 5 Nov | vs Manhattanrank 282 | Home | 85% | 69-55 | W 62-61 | Right |
| Sun 8 Nov2 PM ET | at Mount St. Mary'srank 328 | Away | 71% | 66-59 | — | |
| Wed 11 Nov7 PM ET | at Ole Missrank 31 | Away | 2% | 49-76 | — |
Rooting guide
- Sun 8 Nov: at Mount St. Mary'sA win: 9% · a loss: 9%−1 pts
- Wed 11 Nov: at Ole MissA win: 11% · a loss: 9%+2 pts
Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.
Players
| Player | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Rating | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexia BujoldG | 2 | 36.0 | 16.0 | 3.5 | 1.0 | −1.7 | +0.3 |
| Lara LangermannG | 2 | 31.0 | 5.5 | 4.5 | 4.5 | −2.3 | −0.1 |
| Madison RomanF · transfer from Merrimack | 2 | 30.5 | 10.0 | 12.0 | 1.0 | +2.0 | +2.2 |
| Daria ShishkinaG · transfer from Merrimack | 2 | 28.5 | 11.0 | 4.5 | 1.0 | −2.6 | −0.2 |
| Shyla MontgomeryG | 2 | 28.0 | 2.0 | 5.0 | 3.0 | −1.7 | +0.2 |
| Noa López TallónG | 2 | 17.0 | 12.5 | 2.0 | 0.5 | −1.0 | +0.3 |
| Cadence JohnsonF | 2 | 13.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 0.0 | −1.0 | +0.3 |
| Frankie McLainG | 2 | 7.5 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | −0.7 | +0.2 |
| Emma ZucconF | 1 | 9.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | −1.0 | +0.2 |
| Kohen MarshallG | 1 | 7.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | −0.5 | +0.2 |
Style and luck
Every teamThe Four Factors adjusted for opponents
| Offence | Defence | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin | 44.9%rank 127 | 43.5%rank 69 | 44.7% |
| TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin | 23.6%rank 135 | 22.2%rank 339 | 23.9% |
| Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin | 30.8%rank 341 | 31.1%rank 35 | 33.3% |
| Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin | 20.0%rank 253 | 17.7%rank 7 | 20.8% |
Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.
Luck so far
- Wins against the pre-game chances
- 2.0 won, 1.5 expected (+0.5)
- Opponents' three-point shooting
- −5.2 points a game (they shot 34.5%, league 28.6%)
- Opponents' free throws
- −0.5 points a game
- Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime
- 2-0
Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.
Rating this season
- Preseason net rating
- −4.7
- Last season's net rating
- −1.6
- Last season's minutes returning
- 17%
- Transfers in, weighted by minutes
- −1.1
- Change since preseason
- −1.2
- Offence, points per 100 possessions
- 86.2 (rank 225)
- Defence, points allowed per 100
- 92.0 (rank 162)
- Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes
- 70.1 (rank 361)
- Schedule so far, opponents' average
- −14.8 (rank 245)
America East Conference by rating
| # | Team | Record | Conference | Net | Offence | Defence | National rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vermont | 2-0 | 0-0 | +3.6 | 96.2 | 92.6 | 107 |
| 2 | NJIT | 2-0 | 0-0 | −2.4 | 85.7 | 88.1 | 164 |
| 3 | UMBC | 2-0 | 0-0 | −3.0 | 87.8 | 90.8 | 174 |
| 4 | Bryant | 2-0 | 0-0 | −5.6 | 87.5 | 93.1 | 189 |
| 5 | UAlbany | 2-0 | 0-0 | −5.9 | 86.2 | 92.0 | 191 |
| 6 | Binghamton | 0-1 | 0-0 | −7.2 | 86.4 | 93.5 | 203 |
| 7 | Maine | 1-0 | 0-0 | −7.2 | 87.9 | 95.2 | 206 |
| 8 | New Hampshire | 1-1 | 0-0 | −15.5 | 80.4 | 95.9 | 291 |
| 9 | UMass Lowell | 2-0 | 0-0 | −16.3 | 82.2 | 98.5 | 296 |