Bryant Bulldogs

Women's · America East Conference · 1-0, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: vs Marist · Thu 5 Nov, 6 PM ET

Marist14%86%Bryant

Projected 70-55 · Game page

Makes the tournament13%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 14.6

Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 20-11

Net rating−3.2Rank 179 of 363 · offence 195, defence 132

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 20-11 (13 to 26 wins)
Projected conference record: 9-7
Wins or shares the conference title: 14%
Wins the conference tournament: 12%
Average seed if in the field: 14.6
A 1 seed: 0%

Makes the field13%
Round of 32<1%
Sweet 16<1%
Elite Eight0%
Final Four0%
Title game0%
Champion0%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result
Mon 2 Nov	vs MITnot Division I	Home	—	—	W 75-25
Thu 5 Nov6 PM ET	vs Maristrank 292	Home	86%	70-55	Live
Sun 8 Nov2 PM ET	at Manhattanrank 294	Away	67%	66-60	—
Wed 11 Nov7 PM ET	at Providencerank 109	Away	22%	59-70	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 13% · the next 7 days

Thu 5 Nov: vs MaristA win: 13% · a loss: 13%−1 pts
Sun 8 Nov: at ManhattanA win: 13% · a loss: 13%0 pts
Wed 11 Nov: at ProvidenceA win: 13% · a loss: 13%0 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Izzy AdamsG	1	25.0	5.0	5.0	6.0	+0.2	+1.1
Cameron McNamaraF · transfer from North Alabama	1	24.0	11.0	3.0	1.0	−0.7	+0.6
Sammie SullivanG	1	23.0	4.0	3.0	1.0	−1.7	+0.2
Mia ManciniG	1	22.0	4.0	4.0	5.0	+1.2	+1.4
Genevive WedemeyerG · transfer from Siena	1	22.0	13.0	5.0	3.0	−2.4	−0.1
Ndate NdiayeG · transfer from FIU	1	22.0	10.0	11.0	3.0	−2.2	0.0
Martina BobaG	1	19.0	7.0	1.0	3.0	−1.0	+0.4
Nia ScottF	1	16.0	14.0	6.0	0.0	+4.0	+1.8
Olivia FernandezG	1	14.0	2.0	3.0	0.0	−2.0	+0.1
Jaida GuerraG	1	8.0	5.0	2.0	1.0	−1.5	+0.1
Natalie ChisiG	1	5.0	0.0	2.0	0.0	−1.2	+0.1

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	44.7%rank 137	44.7%rank 132	44.7%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin	23.8%rank 144	23.8%rank 126	23.8%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin	33.5%rank 137	33.5%rank 133	33.5%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin	20.5%rank 127	20.5%rank 139	20.5%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: −3.2
Last season's net rating: +0.7
Last season's minutes returning: 58%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: −1.4
Change since preseason: 0.0

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 87.7 (rank 195)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 90.9 (rank 132)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 72.2 (rank 286)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: —

America East Conference by rating

9 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Vermont	1-0	0-0	+6.2	94.5	88.3	95
2	Maine	0-0	0-0	−3.1	89.9	93.0	177
3	Bryant	1-0	0-0	−3.2	87.7	90.9	179
4	UAlbany	1-0	0-0	−4.3	88.4	92.7	187
5	NJIT	1-0	0-0	−4.9	88.0	93.0	190
6	UMBC	1-0	0-0	−5.5	86.0	91.5	193
7	Binghamton	0-1	0-0	−7.1	86.5	93.5	204
8	New Hampshire	1-0	0-0	−12.6	82.5	95.1	264
9	UMass Lowell	1-0	0-0	−22.1	78.3	100.3	337