Providence Friars

Women's · Big East Conference · 1-0, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: vs UMass · Sat 7 Nov, 1 PM ET

UMass29%71%Providence

Projected 71-63 · Game page

Makes the tournament1%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 10.3

Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 14-18

Net rating+3.7Rank 109 of 363 · offence 112, defence 114

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 14-18 (9 to 20 wins)
Projected conference record: 6-14
Wins or shares the conference title: 0%
Wins the conference tournament: <1%
Average seed if in the field: 10.3
A 1 seed: 0%

Makes the field1%
Round of 32<1%
Sweet 16<1%
Elite Eight0%
Final Four0%
Title game0%
Champion0%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Tue 3 Nov	vs Stonehillrank 309	Home	97%	78-53	W 79-65	Right
Sat 7 Nov1 PM ET	vs Massachusettsrank 138	Home	71%	71-63	—
Wed 11 Nov7 PM ET	vs Bryantrank 179	Home	78%	70-59	—

Rooting guide

Chance of the conference title now: 0% · the next 7 days

Sat 7 Nov: vs MassachusettsA win: 0% · a loss: 0%0 pts
Wed 11 Nov: vs BryantA win: 0% · a loss: 0%0 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Kylah SilverG · transfer from UNC Wilmington	1	32.0	6.0	4.0	2.0	−1.3	+0.5
Princess MoodyG	1	28.0	21.0	1.0	3.0	−0.9	+0.7
Taylor BarnerG · transfer from East Carolina	1	26.0	3.0	0.0	0.0	+1.9	+1.9
J'Adore YoungC · transfer from Ole Miss	1	24.0	12.0	8.0	1.0	+3.9	+2.7
Payton DunbarG	1	23.0	7.0	1.0	1.0	−0.1	+0.9
Orlagh GormleyG	1	21.0	15.0	3.0	7.0	+4.0	+2.4
Audrey ShieldsG	1	17.0	7.0	3.0	0.0	−0.6	+0.5
Voldie BasanaF	1	16.0	7.0	3.0	0.0	−0.7	+0.4
Daviane MindoudiG · transfer from Florida	1	6.0	1.0	2.0	0.0	+1.8	+0.4
Olivia RodriguesG	1	6.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	+0.1	+0.2
Riley HamburgerG	1	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	−0.7	0.0

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	45.2%rank 97	46.3%rank 319	44.7%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin	23.8%rank 140	24.6%rank 56	23.8%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin	33.5%rank 235	35.6%rank 335	33.5%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin	20.6%rank 120	20.3%rank 129	20.5%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 1.0 won, 1.0 expected (0.0)
Opponents' three-point shooting: −3.5 points a game (they shot 35.3%, league 28.5%)
Opponents' free throws: +2.5 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: +4.9
Last season's net rating: +2.5
Last season's minutes returning: 62%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: −1.0
Change since preseason: −1.2

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 93.3 (rank 112)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 89.6 (rank 114)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 73.0 (rank 196)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: −18.0 (rank 234)

Big East Conference by rating

11 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	UConn	1-0	0-0	+51.2	117.8	66.6	1
2	Villanova	0-1	0-0	+19.2	106.7	87.4	39
3	Creighton	1-0	0-0	+17.2	103.0	85.9	46
4	St. John's	1-0	0-0	+16.4	99.9	83.5	50
5	Seton Hall	1-0	0-0	+10.2	92.8	82.6	76
6	Butler	1-0	0-0	+10.0	98.8	88.8	77
7	Georgetown	1-0	0-0	+7.4	94.6	87.2	91
8	Marquette	1-0	0-0	+7.3	92.8	85.5	92
9	Providence	1-0	0-0	+3.7	93.3	89.6	109
10	Xavier	1-0	0-0	−0.8	91.3	92.2	147
11	DePaul	1-0	0-0	−1.2	93.6	94.8	151