Creighton Bluejays

Women's · Big East Conference · 1-0, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: at N Dakota St · Mon 9 Nov, 8 PM ET

Creighton45%55%N Dakota St

Projected 68-70 · Game page

Makes the tournament50%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 7.7

Wins the national title0%Final Four <1% · projected 21-10

Net rating+17.1Rank 48 of 363 · offence 42, defence 62

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 21-10 (16 to 26 wins)
Projected conference record: 13-7
Wins or shares the conference title: <1%
Wins the conference tournament: 1%
Average seed if in the field: 7.7
A 1 seed: 0%

Makes the field50%
Round of 3225%
Sweet 163%
Elite Eight1%
Final Four<1%
Title game<1%
Champion0%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Mon 2 Nov	at South Dakota Staterank 46	Away	26%	79-87	W 73-71	Wrong
Mon 9 Nov8 PM ET	at North Dakota Staterank 65	Away	45%	68-70	—
Wed 11 Nov7 PM ET	vs South Dakotarank 176	Neutral	89%	77-59	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 50% · the next 7 days

Mon 9 Nov: at North Dakota StateA win: 56% · a loss: 44%+12 pts
Wed 11 Nov: vs South DakotaA win: 50% · a loss: 47%+3 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Allison HeathcockG	1	32.0	10.0	11.0	0.0	+3.3	+3.2
Nia HollowayF · transfer from Minnesota	1	31.0	13.0	4.0	1.0	+6.2	+4.7
Neleigh GessertG	1	29.0	12.0	4.0	1.0	+4.0	+3.3
Ava ZedikerG	1	23.0	21.0	3.0	1.0	+5.6	+3.2
Mya MooreG	1	23.0	4.0	0.0	3.0	+0.3	+1.0
Norah GessertG	1	21.0	3.0	2.0	0.0	+2.8	+1.9
Kendall McGeeG	1	14.0	4.0	0.0	1.0	+3.8	+1.5
Jayla WilliamsG	1	10.0	3.0	1.0	0.0	+0.7	+0.5
Kate AmelotteG	1	10.0	3.0	1.0	0.0	+0.7	+0.5
Avery CooperF	1	7.0	0.0	4.0	0.0	+0.8	+0.4

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	46.5%rank 39	45.2%rank 243	44.7%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin	22.2%rank 23	23.4%rank 260	23.9%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin	32.8%rank 236	32.1%rank 83	33.3%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin	22.2%rank 60	18.4%rank 23	20.8%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 1.0 won, 0.3 expected (+0.7)
Opponents' three-point shooting: −6.4 points a game (they shot 41.2%, league 28.6%)
Opponents' free throws: +0.8 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: 1-0

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: +14.8
Last season's net rating: +11.1
Last season's minutes returning: 62%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: +0.9
Change since preseason: +2.3

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 103.0 (rank 42)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 85.9 (rank 62)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 72.7 (rank 217)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: +17.7 (rank 50)

Big East Conference by rating

11 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	UConn	1-1	0-0	+50.1	117.3	67.2	1
2	Villanova	0-1	0-0	+19.2	106.6	87.4	40
3	Creighton	1-0	0-0	+17.1	103.0	85.9	48
4	St. John's	1-0	0-0	+16.5	99.9	83.4	51
5	Butler	2-0	0-0	+15.0	102.0	87.0	62
6	Seton Hall	1-0	0-0	+10.3	92.8	82.5	77
7	Marquette	1-0	0-0	+6.9	92.5	85.5	92
8	Georgetown	2-0	0-0	+5.0	95.4	90.4	98
9	Providence	1-0	0-0	+3.8	93.3	89.5	105
10	Xavier	1-0	0-0	−0.9	91.3	92.2	148
11	DePaul	1-0	0-0	−1.1	93.6	94.7	149