South Dakota Coyotes

Women's · Summit League · 1-0, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: vs UT Rio Grande · Fri 6 Nov, 12 PM ET

UT Rio Grande28%72%South Dakota

Projected 69-62 · Game page

Makes the tournament4%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 13.2

Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 19-13

Net rating−3.1Rank 176 of 363 · offence 164, defence 180

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 19-13 (13 to 25 wins)
Projected conference record: 8-6
Wins or shares the conference title: 2%
Wins the conference tournament: 3%
Average seed if in the field: 13.2
A 1 seed: 0%

Makes the field4%
Round of 32<1%
Sweet 16<1%
Elite Eight0%
Final Four0%
Title game0%
Champion0%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result
Mon 2 Nov	vs York (NE)not Division I	Home	—	—	W 95-38
Fri 6 Nov12 PM ET	vs UT Rio Grande Valleyrank 204	Home	72%	69-62	—
Wed 11 Nov7 PM ET	vs Creightonrank 48	Neutral	11%	59-77	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 4% · the next 7 days

Fri 6 Nov: vs UT Rio Grande ValleyA win: 4% · a loss: 4%0 pts
Wed 11 Nov: vs CreightonA win: 7% · a loss: 4%+3 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Natalie RamseyG	1	22.0	8.0	3.0	0.0	−1.8	+0.1
Jenna HoppG	1	20.0	5.0	3.0	2.0	+0.3	+0.9
Alyssa BartlettG	1	19.0	4.0	4.0	4.0	−0.4	+0.6
Ava MillerF · transfer from North Dakota	1	18.0	11.0	11.0	0.0	−2.4	−0.1
Molly JoyceG	1	18.0	15.0	0.0	0.0	+0.9	+1.0
Gabby JacksonF · transfer from North Alabama	1	18.0	11.0	5.0	1.0	−0.8	+0.4
Latazia WilliamsonF · transfer from Kennesaw St	1	17.0	8.0	7.0	1.0	−1.1	+0.3
Tori SchlagelG	1	17.0	11.0	5.0	2.0	+0.1	+0.7
Livi DownsG	1	17.0	4.0	5.0	3.0	−1.6	+0.2
Ashlan CarlowG	1	13.0	7.0	3.0	1.0	−1.5	+0.1
Bri RobinsonG · transfer from Northern Iowa	1	11.0	9.0	2.0	3.0	+1.6	+0.7
Katy ReyersonF	1	10.0	2.0	2.0	0.0	+0.4	+0.5

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	44.7%rank 148	44.7%rank 141	44.7%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin	23.9%rank 167	23.9%rank 138	23.9%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin	33.3%rank 147	33.3%rank 147	33.3%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin	20.8%rank 147	20.8%rank 154	20.8%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: −3.1
Last season's net rating: +5.5
Last season's minutes returning: 44%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: −4.9
Change since preseason: 0.0

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 89.8 (rank 164)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 92.9 (rank 180)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 72.4 (rank 253)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: —

Summit League by rating

8 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	South Dakota State	0-1	0-0	+17.7	104.1	86.4	46
2	North Dakota State	0-1	0-0	+13.8	100.0	86.3	65
3	South Dakota	1-0	0-0	−3.1	89.8	92.9	176
4	St. Thomas	1-1	0-0	−4.2	90.2	94.4	185
5	Oral Roberts	0-1	0-0	−8.3	89.9	98.2	213
6	Kansas City	1-0	0-0	−13.9	84.4	98.3	276
7	North Dakota	0-1	0-0	−18.4	80.1	98.5	316
8	Omaha	0-1	0-0	−18.9	79.7	98.6	319