St. Thomas Tommies

Women's · Summit League · 1-1, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: vs St. Catherine · Tue 10 Nov, 8 PM ET

Not rated: the opponent is outside Division I.

Makes the tournament2%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 13.8

Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 15-16

Net rating−4.1Rank 183 of 363 · offence 153, defence 213

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 15-16 (10 to 20 wins)
Projected conference record: 7-7
Wins or shares the conference title: 1%
Wins the conference tournament: 2%
Average seed if in the field: 13.8
A 1 seed: 0%

Makes the field2%
Round of 32<1%
Sweet 160%
Elite Eight0%
Final Four0%
Title game0%
Champion0%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Mon 2 Nov	at Northern Iowarank 111	Away	23%	72-83	L 59-67	Right
Wed 4 Nov	vs Bethel (MN)not Division I	Home	—	—	W 77-43
Tue 10 Nov8 PM ET	vs St. Catherinenot Division I	Home	—	—	—

Rooting guide

Chance of the conference title now: 1% · the next 7 days

No games this week

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Mikayla WernerG	2	29.5	9.0	8.5	2.5	−0.4	+0.9
Alyssa SandF	2	28.0	15.0	7.5	1.0	+3.0	+2.5
Laura HaugeG	2	25.5	6.5	0.0	2.0	−2.2	0.0
Jayci RathF	2	24.5	6.5	2.0	1.0	−1.9	+0.1
Savannah McGowanF	2	18.0	5.5	7.0	2.0	−0.2	+0.6
Abbey VallanceG	2	17.5	5.5	1.0	1.0	−2.3	0.0
Autumn McCallF	2	17.0	4.5	4.5	2.0	−1.8	+0.1
Maya KovacicG	2	17.0	7.5	3.0	1.0	−1.4	+0.2
Samantha VollG	1	30.0	7.0	1.0	3.0	−1.4	+0.4
Savanah GardnerF	1	7.0	5.0	3.0	0.0	−1.9	0.0
Addie SchlieweF	1	5.0	4.0	2.0	0.0	−2.1	0.0
Lydia AalsmaG	1	2.0	0.0	0.0	1.0	−1.3	0.0
Tessa DriscollG	1	2.0	0.0	1.0	0.0	−0.6	+0.1

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	45.8%rank 57	44.5%rank 119	44.7%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin	23.5%rank 114	24.2%rank 91	23.8%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin	35.1%rank 49	33.5%rank 128	33.5%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin	18.4%rank 343	22.1%rank 324	20.5%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 0.0 won, 0.2 expected (−0.2)
Opponents' three-point shooting: −3.0 points a game (they shot 33.3%, league 28.5%)
Opponents' free throws: −5.1 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

2 games played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: −4.2
Last season's net rating: −6.2
Last season's minutes returning: 70%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: 0.0
Change since preseason: +0.1

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 90.2 (rank 153)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 94.4 (rank 213)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 71.5 (rank 334)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: +3.1 (rank 98)

Summit League by rating

8 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	South Dakota State	0-1	0-0	+17.6	104.1	86.5	44
2	North Dakota State	0-1	0-0	+13.8	100.1	86.3	65
3	South Dakota	1-0	0-0	−3.1	89.8	93.0	178
4	St. Thomas	1-1	0-0	−4.1	90.2	94.4	183
5	Oral Roberts	0-1	0-0	−8.0	90.6	98.6	211
6	Kansas City	1-0	0-0	−13.9	84.4	98.3	277
7	North Dakota	0-1	0-0	−18.4	80.2	98.6	314
8	Omaha	0-1	0-0	−18.8	79.8	98.6	317