North Dakota State Bison
Next: vs Augustana (SD) · Thu 5 Nov, 8 PM ET
Not rated: the opponent is outside Division I.
Makes the tournament49%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 11.3
Wins the national title0%Final Four <1% · projected 24-8
Net rating+13.8Rank 65 of 363 · offence 61, defence 68
Season outlook
- Projected record
- 24-8 (20 to 28 wins)
- Projected conference record
- 12-2
- Wins or shares the conference title
- 47%
- Wins the conference tournament
- 37%
- Average seed if in the field
- 11.3
- A 1 seed
- 0%
- Makes the field49%
- Round of 3210%
- Sweet 161%
- Elite Eight<1%
- Final Four<1%
- Title game0%
- Champion0%
Schedule and results
Rooting guide
- Mon 9 Nov: vs CreightonA win: 51% · a loss: 46%+5 pts
- Thu 12 Nov: at ButlerA win: 54% · a loss: 47%+7 pts
Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.
Players
| Player | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Rating | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Karrington AspF | 1 | 33.0 | 20.0 | 6.0 | 1.0 | +5.7 | +4.7 |
| Marisa FrostG | 1 | 31.0 | 11.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | +4.4 | +3.6 |
| Jocelyn SchillerG | 1 | 30.0 | 7.0 | 5.0 | 0.0 | +3.0 | +2.8 |
| Elena LazarevicG | 1 | 24.0 | 7.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | −1.0 | +0.5 |
| Sophie HawkinsonG | 1 | 21.0 | 2.0 | 4.0 | 3.0 | −0.9 | +0.5 |
| Miriley SimonF | 1 | 19.0 | 2.0 | 5.0 | 1.0 | +2.4 | +1.6 |
| Lily NiebuhrF | 1 | 11.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | +1.2 | +0.7 |
| McKenna JohnsonF | 1 | 10.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | +1.6 | +0.7 |
| Madelynn MunizG · transfer from Fullerton | 1 | 7.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | −2.1 | 0.0 |
| Avery KoenenF | 1 | 7.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +13.5 | +2.0 |
| Abby KrzewinskiG | 1 | 7.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +3.3 | +0.7 |
Style and luck
Every teamThe Four Factors adjusted for opponents
| Offence | Defence | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin | 45.4%rank 93 | 44.1%rank 116 | 44.7% |
| TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin | 23.7%rank 148 | 23.7%rank 223 | 23.9% |
| Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin | 32.7%rank 246 | 32.3%rank 90 | 33.3% |
| Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin | 19.6%rank 280 | 18.8%rank 41 | 20.8% |
Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.
Luck so far
- Wins against the pre-game chances
- 0.0 won, 0.2 expected (−0.2)
- Opponents' three-point shooting
- +0.4 points a game (they shot 27.8%, league 28.6%)
- Opponents' free throws
- −0.9 points a game
- Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime
- None yet
Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.
Rating this season
- Preseason net rating
- +12.5
- Last season's net rating
- +18.7
- Last season's minutes returning
- 71%
- Transfers in, weighted by minutes
- −0.3
- Change since preseason
- +1.3
- Offence, points per 100 possessions
- 100.0 (rank 61)
- Defence, points allowed per 100
- 86.3 (rank 68)
- Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes
- 72.0 (rank 287)
- Schedule so far, opponents' average
- +18.0 (rank 48)
Summit League by rating
| # | Team | Record | Conference | Net | Offence | Defence | National rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | South Dakota State | 0-1 | 0-0 | +17.7 | 104.1 | 86.4 | 46 |
| 2 | North Dakota State | 0-1 | 0-0 | +13.8 | 100.0 | 86.3 | 65 |
| 3 | South Dakota | 1-0 | 0-0 | −3.1 | 89.8 | 92.9 | 176 |
| 4 | St. Thomas | 1-1 | 0-0 | −4.2 | 90.2 | 94.4 | 185 |
| 5 | Oral Roberts | 0-1 | 0-0 | −8.3 | 89.9 | 98.2 | 213 |
| 6 | Kansas City | 1-0 | 0-0 | −13.9 | 84.4 | 98.3 | 276 |
| 7 | North Dakota | 0-1 | 0-0 | −18.4 | 80.1 | 98.5 | 316 |
| 8 | Omaha | 0-1 | 0-0 | −18.9 | 79.7 | 98.6 | 319 |