Gonzaga Bulldogs

Women's · Pac-12 Conference · 1-0, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: vs Idaho · Fri 6 Nov, 9 PM ET

Idaho11%89%Gonzaga

Projected 78-61 · Game page

Makes the tournament66%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 9.8

Wins the national title0%Final Four <1% · projected 27-6

Net rating+18.0Rank 42 of 363 · offence 41, defence 52

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 27-6 (22 to 31 wins)
Projected conference record: 14-2
Wins or shares the conference title: 61%
Wins the conference tournament: 46%
Average seed if in the field: 9.8
A 1 seed: 0%

Makes the field66%
Round of 3223%
Sweet 162%
Elite Eight<1%
Final Four<1%
Title game<1%
Champion0%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Mon 2 Nov	vs North Dakota Staterank 64	Home	76%	88-78	W 62-56	Right
Fri 6 Nov9 PM ET	vs Idahorank 107	Home	89%	78-61	—
Sun 8 Nov5 PM ET	vs UC Riversiderank 250	Home	98%	82-51	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 66% · the next 7 days

Fri 6 Nov: vs IdahoA win: 67% · a loss: 65%+2 pts
Sun 8 Nov: vs UC RiversideA win: 66% · a loss: 66%0 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Allie TurnerG	1	35.0	8.0	3.0	5.0	+4.1	+4.0
Teryn GardnerG	1	31.0	9.0	3.0	4.0	+3.0	+2.9
Lauren WhittakerF	1	29.0	22.0	10.0	2.0	+10.1	+6.5
Zeryhia AokusoG	1	24.0	6.0	3.0	2.0	+2.1	+1.9
Taylor SmithF	1	21.0	10.0	2.0	4.0	+3.3	+2.1
McKynnlie DalanF	1	17.0	2.0	2.0	2.0	+1.2	+1.1
Julia WilsonG	1	16.0	1.0	2.0	1.0	+1.5	+1.1
Ines BettencourtG	1	12.0	4.0	1.0	0.0	+2.7	+1.1
Abby LuskF	1	8.0	0.0	3.0	0.0	−0.6	+0.2
Emmy RoachG · transfer from Rider	1	5.0	0.0	0.0	1.0	−1.2	+0.1
Christabel OsaroboG	1	2.0	0.0	2.0	0.0	+0.7	+0.1

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	44.1%rank 265	45.4%rank 281	44.7%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin	23.6%rank 128	23.6%rank 234	23.8%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin	32.4%rank 292	33.0%rank 101	33.5%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin	18.5%rank 341	19.4%rank 81	20.5%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 1.0 won, 0.8 expected (+0.2)
Opponents' three-point shooting: +5.1 points a game (they shot 20.0%, league 28.4%)
Opponents' free throws: −1.2 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: +19.3
Last season's net rating: +17.2
Last season's minutes returning: 94%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: −4.3
Change since preseason: −1.3

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 102.5 (rank 41)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 84.5 (rank 52)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 72.7 (rank 235)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: +13.8 (rank 61)

Pac-12 Conference by rating

9 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Gonzaga	1-0	0-0	+18.0	102.5	84.5	42
2	San Diego State	2-0	0-0	+15.5	101.1	85.6	54
3	Colorado State	1-0	0-0	+7.0	92.4	85.4	93
4	Oregon State	0-1	0-0	+4.8	95.8	90.9	102
5	Washington State	0-1	0-0	+0.6	92.3	91.8	137
6	Boise State	1-0	0-0	−1.6	90.9	92.5	156
7	Texas State	1-0	0-0	−7.8	86.5	94.4	210
8	Fresno State	1-0	0-0	−9.1	85.1	94.2	222
9	Utah State	1-0	0-0	−14.5	83.1	97.5	283