Boise State Broncos

Women's · Pac-12 Conference · 1-0, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: vs Portland St · Fri 6 Nov, 8:30 PM ET

Portland St7%93%Boise St

Projected 76-56 · Game page

Makes the tournament4%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 11.9

Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 17-15

Net rating−1.6Rank 156 of 363 · offence 148, defence 172

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 17-15 (11 to 24 wins)
Projected conference record: 7-9
Wins or shares the conference title: 1%
Wins the conference tournament: 2%
Average seed if in the field: 11.9
A 1 seed: 0%

Makes the field4%
Round of 32<1%
Sweet 160%
Elite Eight0%
Final Four0%
Title game0%
Champion0%

Chance of making the field, day by day

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result
Mon 2 Nov	vs Bushnellnot Division I	Home	—	—	W 84-48
Fri 6 Nov8:30 PM ET	vs Portland Staterank 328	Home	93%	76-56	—
Tue 10 Nov8:30 PM ET	vs Cal State Northridgerank 301	Home	90%	76-58	—
Fri 13 Nov8:30 PM ET	vs Utahrank 78	Home	37%	66-71	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 4% · the next 7 days

Fri 6 Nov: vs Portland StateA win: 4% · a loss: 4%0 pts
Tue 10 Nov: vs Cal State NorthridgeA win: 4% · a loss: 4%0 pts
Fri 13 Nov: vs UtahA win: 4% · a loss: 4%+1 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Mason QuinnG	1	21.0	9.0	3.0	2.0	−1.2	+0.4
Libby HuttonF	1	19.0	9.0	6.0	0.0	+3.3	+1.9
Zia-Daye AndersonG	1	19.0	11.0	2.0	4.0	−1.2	+0.3
CJ LattaG · transfer from San Diego St	1	18.0	21.0	5.0	2.0	+0.5	+0.9
Keirra ThompsonG	1	17.0	3.0	0.0	2.0	−1.4	+0.2
Morgan MaldonadoG	1	15.0	4.0	4.0	2.0	−1.1	+0.3
Jayda LewisG	1	14.0	0.0	4.0	0.0	−1.4	+0.2
Milly SharpG	1	13.0	3.0	0.0	2.0	−1.0	+0.3
Izzie HarmsF	1	12.0	5.0	2.0	1.0	−0.9	+0.3
Mason BorcherdingF	1	12.0	8.0	10.0	1.0	−0.4	+0.4
Grace FosterG · transfer from Utah	1	11.0	2.0	3.0	0.0	+1.8	+0.8
Kenna GarzaC	1	11.0	6.0	3.0	0.0	0.0	+0.4
Paige GilpatrickF	1	9.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	−0.9	+0.2
Emerson McCreaC	1	9.0	3.0	2.0	1.0	−0.9	+0.2

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	44.6%rank 149	44.6%rank 150	44.6%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin	23.9%rank 174	23.9%rank 145	23.9%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin	33.2%rank 149	33.2%rank 149	33.2%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin	20.8%rank 146	20.8%rank 163	20.8%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: −1.6
Last season's net rating: +4.9
Last season's minutes returning: 35%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: +1.9
Change since preseason: 0.0

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 90.7 (rank 148)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 92.3 (rank 172)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 73.5 (rank 133)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: —

Pac-12 Conference by rating

9 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Gonzaga	1-0	0-0	+18.0	102.4	84.4	45
2	San Diego State	2-0	0-0	+15.5	101.0	85.5	57
3	Colorado State	1-0	0-0	+7.0	92.3	85.3	91
4	Oregon State	0-1	0-0	+4.9	95.7	90.8	99
5	Washington State	0-1	0-0	+1.1	92.1	91.0	131
6	Boise State	1-0	0-0	−1.6	90.7	92.3	156
7	Texas State	1-0	0-0	−7.8	86.4	94.2	211
8	Fresno State	1-0	0-0	−9.1	84.9	94.0	226
9	Utah State	1-0	0-0	−14.5	82.9	97.4	283