Texas State Bobcats
Next: at Chicago St · Sat 7 Nov, 5:30 PM ETProjected 73-64 · Game page
Makes the tournament<1%From 20,000 simulated seasons
Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 15-17
Net rating−7.9Rank 211 of 363 · offence 218, defence 214
Season outlook
- Projected record
- 15-17 (10 to 20 wins)
- Projected conference record
- 4-12
- Wins or shares the conference title
- <1%
- Wins the conference tournament
- <1%
- Average seed if in the field
- —
- A 1 seed
- 0%
- Makes the field<1%
- Round of 320%
- Sweet 160%
- Elite Eight0%
- Final Four0%
- Title game0%
- Champion0%
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Where | Win chance | Projected | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wed 4 Nov | vs Long Island Universityrank 346 | Home | 89% | 75-57 | W 69-51 | Right |
| Sat 7 Nov5:30 PM ET | at Chicago Staterank 342 | Away | 74% | 73-64 | — |
Rooting guide
- Sat 7 Nov: at Chicago StateA win: <1% · a loss: <1%0 pts
Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.
Players
| Player | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Rating | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crystal HendersonG · transfer from Georgia St | 1 | 37.0 | 18.0 | 0.0 | 4.0 | −0.6 | +1.1 |
| Sofia CeppellottiF · transfer from North Alabama | 1 | 34.0 | 5.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 | −2.5 | −0.2 |
| Saniya BurksG | 1 | 32.0 | 20.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | −1.6 | +0.3 |
| Lay FantroyG · transfer from Delaware | 1 | 24.0 | 5.0 | 7.0 | 1.0 | +0.2 | +1.0 |
| Addison CarrC | 1 | 20.0 | 2.0 | 5.0 | 2.0 | −3.1 | −0.3 |
| Kyra AndersonF | 1 | 19.0 | 16.0 | 6.0 | 0.0 | +0.8 | +1.0 |
| Hayden HearstF | 1 | 16.0 | 0.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 | −3.0 | −0.3 |
| Emma PiqueG | 1 | 8.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −2.8 | −0.1 |
| Makenna Shaffer-LauerG · transfer from Weber St | 1 | 5.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −4.3 | −0.2 |
| Aliyah CarterG · transfer from Bakersfield | 1 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | −3.8 | −0.1 |
| Lucija MilkovicC · transfer from Seattle U | 1 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −5.2 | −0.1 |
Style and luck
Every teamThe Four Factors adjusted for opponents
| Offence | Defence | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin | 45.3%rank 87 | 45.8%rank 307 | 44.6% |
| TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin | 24.7%rank 302 | 24.2%rank 97 | 23.9% |
| Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin | 34.8%rank 61 | 32.2%rank 64 | 33.5% |
| Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin | 20.8%rank 112 | 18.5%rank 27 | 20.4% |
Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.
Luck so far
- Wins against the pre-game chances
- 1.0 won, 0.9 expected (+0.1)
- Opponents' three-point shooting
- −0.6 points a game (they shot 29.2%, league 28.3%)
- Opponents' free throws
- +1.4 points a game
- Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime
- None yet
Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.
Rating this season
- Preseason net rating
- −9.2
- Last season's net rating
- −8.9
- Last season's minutes returning
- 34%
- Transfers in, weighted by minutes
- −8.5
- Change since preseason
- +1.3
- Offence, points per 100 possessions
- 86.4 (rank 218)
- Defence, points allowed per 100
- 94.3 (rank 214)
- Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes
- 73.1 (rank 171)
- Schedule so far, opponents' average
- −24.8 (rank 264)
Pac-12 Conference by rating
| # | Team | Record | Conference | Net | Offence | Defence | National rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gonzaga | 1-0 | 0-0 | +18.0 | 102.4 | 84.5 | 43 |
| 2 | San Diego State | 2-0 | 0-0 | +15.4 | 101.0 | 85.6 | 57 |
| 3 | Colorado State | 1-0 | 0-0 | +7.0 | 92.3 | 85.3 | 93 |
| 4 | Oregon State | 0-1 | 0-0 | +4.8 | 95.7 | 90.9 | 101 |
| 5 | Washington State | 0-1 | 0-0 | +0.6 | 92.3 | 91.7 | 134 |
| 6 | Boise State | 1-0 | 0-0 | −1.6 | 90.8 | 92.3 | 154 |
| 7 | Texas State | 1-0 | 0-0 | −7.9 | 86.4 | 94.3 | 211 |
| 8 | Fresno State | 1-0 | 0-0 | −9.1 | 85.0 | 94.1 | 224 |
| 9 | Utah State | 1-0 | 0-0 | −14.5 | 83.0 | 97.5 | 283 |