Chicago State Cougars
Next: vs Miss Valley St · Thu 5 Nov, 7 PM ETProjected 73-65 · Game page
Makes the tournament3%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 16.0
Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 12-21
Net rating−23.7Rank 342 of 363 · offence 309, defence 359
Season outlook
- Projected record
- 12-21 (6 to 17 wins)
- Projected conference record
- 8-8
- Wins or shares the conference title
- 2%
- Wins the conference tournament
- 3%
- Average seed if in the field
- 16.0
- A 1 seed
- 0%
- Makes the field3%
- Round of 320%
- Sweet 160%
- Elite Eight0%
- Final Four0%
- Title game0%
- Champion0%
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Where | Win chance | Projected | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 2 Nov | at Illinois Staterank 128 | Away | 4% | 69-94 | L 69-106 | Right |
| Thu 5 Nov7 PM ET | vs Mississippi Valley Staterank 352 | Home | 73% | 73-65 | Live | |
| Sat 7 Nov5:30 PM ET | vs Texas Staterank 210 | Home | 25% | 65-73 | — | |
| Tue 10 Nov12 PM ET | vs Huston Tillotsonnot Division I | Home | — | — | — | |
| Wed 11 Nov8 PM ET | at UICrank 185 | Away | 5% | 57-78 | — |
Rooting guide
- Thu 5 Nov: vs Mississippi Valley StateA win: 3% · a loss: 3%0 pts
- Sat 7 Nov: vs Texas StateA win: 3% · a loss: 3%0 pts
- Wed 11 Nov: at UICA win: 3% · a loss: 3%0 pts
Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.
Players
| Player | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Rating | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mazzy O'BrienG | 1 | 26.0 | 9.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | −3.2 | −0.5 |
| Keona McGeeG | 1 | 25.0 | 17.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | −3.9 | −0.8 |
| Marisa GantG | 1 | 23.0 | 12.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | −6.1 | −1.7 |
| Aunyai' DeereG | 1 | 22.0 | 5.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | −3.1 | −0.4 |
| Mia CarterG | 1 | 21.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | −3.1 | −0.4 |
| Kitali YoumansG | 1 | 18.0 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | −6.7 | −1.6 |
| Chloe SiscoG | 1 | 16.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | −7.0 | −1.5 |
| Kyara ChampagneG | 1 | 15.0 | 15.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | −5.4 | −0.9 |
| Jade Hamilton-GillC | 1 | 14.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | −7.2 | −1.3 |
| Emmanuelle KaldjobC | 1 | 13.0 | 0.0 | 8.0 | 0.0 | −2.8 | −0.2 |
| Paris BassF | 1 | 7.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | −5.6 | −0.5 |
Style and luck
Every teamThe Four Factors adjusted for opponents
| Offence | Defence | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin | 45.1%rank 111 | 46.4%rank 327 | 44.7% |
| TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin | 23.3%rank 89 | 23.1%rank 296 | 23.8% |
| Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin | 31.5%rank 327 | 34.1%rank 259 | 33.5% |
| Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin | 21.5%rank 65 | 20.8%rank 254 | 20.5% |
Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.
Luck so far
- Wins against the pre-game chances
- 0.0 won, 0.0 expected (0.0)
- Opponents' three-point shooting
- −16.8 points a game (they shot 57.9%, league 28.5%)
- Opponents' free throws
- −1.4 points a game
- Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime
- None yet
Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.
Rating this season
- Preseason net rating
- −23.0
- Last season's net rating
- −25.5
- Last season's minutes returning
- 68%
- Transfers in, weighted by minutes
- 0.0
- Change since preseason
- −0.7
- Offence, points per 100 possessions
- 80.1 (rank 309)
- Defence, points allowed per 100
- 103.8 (rank 359)
- Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes
- 75.7 (rank 14)
- Schedule so far, opponents' average
- +1.4 (rank 110)
Northeast Conference by rating
| # | Team | Record | Conference | Net | Offence | Defence | National rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fairleigh Dickinson | 0-2 | 0-0 | −1.6 | 93.0 | 94.6 | 154 |
| 2 | Stonehill | 0-1 | 0-0 | −18.0 | 84.6 | 102.6 | 309 |
| 3 | Mercyhurst | 0-1 | 0-0 | −19.3 | 81.4 | 100.8 | 319 |
| 4 | Chicago State | 0-1 | 0-0 | −23.7 | 80.1 | 103.8 | 342 |
| 5 | Long Island University | 0-2 | 0-0 | −24.9 | 78.1 | 103.0 | 346 |
| 6 | New Haven | 1-0 | 0-0 | −25.5 | 76.3 | 101.7 | 348 |
| 7 | Central Connecticut | 0-1 | 0-0 | −29.0 | 72.9 | 101.9 | 355 |
| 8 | Wagner | 1-0 | 0-0 | −29.1 | 72.2 | 101.2 | 356 |
| 9 | Le Moyne | 0-1 | 0-0 | −30.7 | 74.6 | 105.3 | 357 |