Illinois State Redbirds
Makes the tournament13%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 13.0
Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 21-13
Net rating+1.4Rank 127 of 363 · offence 87, defence 220
Season outlook
- Projected record
- 21-13 (15 to 27 wins)
- Projected conference record
- 13-7
- Wins or shares the conference title
- 11%
- Wins the conference tournament
- 11%
- Average seed if in the field
- 13.0
- A 1 seed
- 0%
- Makes the field13%
- Round of 321%
- Sweet 16<1%
- Elite Eight0%
- Final Four0%
- Title game0%
- Champion0%
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Where | Win chance | Projected | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 2 Nov | vs Chicago Staterank 342 | Home | 96% | 94-69 | W 106-69 | Right |
| Thu 5 Nov7 PM ET | at Daytonrank 146 | Away | 41% | 69-72 | — | |
| Sat 7 Nov5 PM ET | vs Augustana (IL)not Division I | Home | — | — | — | |
| Wed 11 Nov7:30 PM ET | vs Green Bayrank 84 | Home | 45% | 69-70 | — |
Rooting guide
- Thu 5 Nov: at DaytonA win: 12% · a loss: 13%−1 pts
- Wed 11 Nov: vs Green BayA win: 12% · a loss: 13%0 pts
Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.
Players
| Player | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Rating | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trista FaytaG | 1 | 25.0 | 2.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | +2.1 | +1.9 |
| Nevaeh ThomasF | 1 | 22.0 | 23.0 | 8.0 | 3.0 | +1.0 | +1.3 |
| Danyella MporokosoG | 1 | 21.0 | 16.0 | 2.0 | 5.0 | −1.0 | +0.5 |
| Kennedy StowersF | 1 | 20.0 | 13.0 | 10.0 | 0.0 | −1.0 | +0.4 |
| Grace NelsonG | 1 | 19.0 | 21.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | +0.2 | +0.8 |
| Jaeden PrattG | 1 | 16.0 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | −0.6 | +0.5 |
| Hannah ChickenF · transfer from Portland St | 1 | 16.0 | 9.0 | 6.0 | 3.0 | +0.6 | +0.8 |
| Jenna Van SchaikG · transfer from Mercyhurst | 1 | 14.0 | 2.0 | 4.0 | 1.0 | +0.1 | +0.6 |
| Madison AustinF | 1 | 14.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | +0.9 | +0.8 |
| Chloe SpreenG · transfer from Indiana | 1 | 13.0 | 11.0 | 4.0 | 1.0 | +1.4 | +0.8 |
| Christina KöppelF | 1 | 9.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | −0.7 | +0.2 |
| Zanyra AdamsG | 1 | 8.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | −0.8 | +0.2 |
| Madison YoungG | 1 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | −0.6 | +0.1 |
Style and luck
Every teamThe Four Factors adjusted for opponents
| Offence | Defence | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin | 46.4%rank 37 | 45.0%rank 249 | 44.7% |
| TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin | 23.1%rank 70 | 23.3%rank 275 | 23.8% |
| Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin | 34.1%rank 99 | 31.5%rank 31 | 33.5% |
| Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin | 20.8%rank 108 | 21.5%rank 298 | 20.5% |
Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.
Luck so far
- Wins against the pre-game chances
- 1.0 won, 1.0 expected (0.0)
- Opponents' three-point shooting
- +2.5 points a game (they shot 25.0%, league 28.4%)
- Opponents' free throws
- −2.8 points a game
- Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime
- None yet
Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.
Rating this season
- Preseason net rating
- +0.7
- Last season's net rating
- +2.9
- Last season's minutes returning
- 44%
- Transfers in, weighted by minutes
- −5.7
- Change since preseason
- +0.7
- Offence, points per 100 possessions
- 96.0 (rank 87)
- Defence, points allowed per 100
- 94.6 (rank 220)
- Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes
- 73.1 (rank 184)
- Schedule so far, opponents' average
- −23.7 (rank 253)
Missouri Valley Conference by rating
| # | Team | Record | Conference | Net | Offence | Defence | National rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Murray State | 1-0 | 0-0 | +10.6 | 100.8 | 90.2 | 73 |
| 2 | Northern Iowa | 1-0 | 0-0 | +3.2 | 93.4 | 90.2 | 111 |
| 3 | Drake | 1-0 | 0-0 | +2.4 | 95.8 | 93.5 | 117 |
| 4 | Belmont | 0-1 | 0-0 | +1.7 | 92.3 | 90.6 | 124 |
| 5 | Illinois State | 1-0 | 0-0 | +1.4 | 96.0 | 94.6 | 127 |
| 6 | Bradley | 0-1 | 0-0 | −2.2 | 89.8 | 92.0 | 165 |
| 7 | UIC | 1-1 | 0-0 | −4.3 | 88.9 | 93.2 | 186 |
| 8 | Southern Illinois | 0-1 | 0-0 | −15.3 | 83.1 | 98.4 | 289 |
| 9 | Indiana State | 0-1 | 0-0 | −15.4 | 84.5 | 99.9 | 290 |
| 10 | Evansville | 0-1 | 0-0 | −18.8 | 83.2 | 102.0 | 316 |
| 11 | Valparaiso | 0-1 | 0-0 | −24.7 | 74.6 | 99.3 | 345 |