Belmont Bruins
Next: vs South Florida · Fri 6 Nov, 8:30 PM ETProjected 67-70 · Game page
Makes the tournament11%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 12.9
Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 18-16
Net rating+1.7Rank 126 of 363 · offence 126, defence 132
Season outlook
- Projected record
- 18-16 (13 to 24 wins)
- Projected conference record
- 13-7
- Wins or shares the conference title
- 11%
- Wins the conference tournament
- 10%
- Average seed if in the field
- 12.9
- A 1 seed
- 0%
- Makes the field11%
- Round of 321%
- Sweet 16<1%
- Elite Eight0%
- Final Four0%
- Title game0%
- Champion0%
Schedule and results
Rooting guide
- Fri 6 Nov: vs South FloridaA win: 12% · a loss: 11%+1 pts
- Sun 8 Nov: vs ColumbiaA win: 12% · a loss: 11%+1 pts
Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.
Players
| Player | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Rating | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenley McCarnG · transfer from UT Martin | 1 | 32.0 | 15.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 | +1.4 | +2.1 |
| Quinn EubankG | 1 | 32.0 | 8.0 | 9.0 | 1.0 | +1.7 | +2.2 |
| KK BrodieC | 1 | 31.0 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | +1.3 | +2.0 |
| Chelby JordanG | 1 | 30.0 | 13.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | −0.8 | +0.8 |
| Katie CriswellG · transfer from North Alabama | 1 | 21.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −1.4 | +0.3 |
| Kate McGinnisG | 1 | 18.0 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | −0.4 | +0.6 |
| Tatum WoodsonG | 1 | 15.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | −0.5 | +0.5 |
| Rylie BeersG | 1 | 12.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | −0.4 | +0.4 |
| Samiya JonesF | 1 | 9.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | −0.3 | +0.3 |
Style and luck
Every teamThe Four Factors adjusted for opponents
| Offence | Defence | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin | 44.6%rank 219 | 43.3%rank 58 | 44.7% |
| TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin | 22.6%rank 44 | 23.5%rank 251 | 23.9% |
| Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin | 33.6%rank 128 | 34.4%rank 283 | 33.3% |
| Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin | 18.2%rank 349 | 21.7%rank 281 | 20.8% |
Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.
Luck so far
- Wins against the pre-game chances
- 0.0 won, 0.1 expected (−0.1)
- Opponents' three-point shooting
- +4.3 points a game (they shot 23.1%, league 28.6%)
- Opponents' free throws
- −4.1 points a game
- Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime
- None yet
Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.
Rating this season
- Preseason net rating
- −0.3
- Last season's net rating
- +7.0
- Last season's minutes returning
- 28%
- Transfers in, weighted by minutes
- −4.3
- Change since preseason
- +2.0
- Offence, points per 100 possessions
- 92.3 (rank 126)
- Defence, points allowed per 100
- 90.7 (rank 132)
- Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes
- 72.6 (rank 226)
- Schedule so far, opponents' average
- +20.4 (rank 38)
Missouri Valley Conference by rating
| # | Team | Record | Conference | Net | Offence | Defence | National rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Murray State | 1-0 | 0-0 | +10.3 | 101.0 | 90.7 | 76 |
| 2 | Northern Iowa | 1-0 | 0-0 | +3.2 | 93.5 | 90.2 | 111 |
| 3 | Illinois State | 2-0 | 0-0 | +2.6 | 97.2 | 94.6 | 116 |
| 4 | Drake | 1-0 | 0-0 | +2.3 | 96.0 | 93.7 | 118 |
| 5 | Belmont | 0-1 | 0-0 | +1.7 | 92.3 | 90.7 | 126 |
| 6 | Bradley | 0-1 | 0-0 | −1.6 | 90.2 | 91.8 | 155 |
| 7 | UIC | 1-1 | 0-0 | −4.0 | 89.6 | 93.6 | 182 |
| 8 | Southern Illinois | 0-1 | 0-0 | −15.3 | 83.1 | 98.4 | 289 |
| 9 | Indiana State | 0-1 | 0-0 | −15.5 | 84.5 | 100.0 | 292 |
| 10 | Evansville | 0-1 | 0-0 | −18.8 | 83.2 | 102.1 | 317 |
| 11 | Valparaiso | 0-1 | 0-0 | −24.8 | 74.6 | 99.4 | 346 |