Columbia Lions
Next: vs Rhode Island · Fri 6 Nov, 6 PM ETProjected 70-64 · Game page
Makes the tournament56%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 8.8
Wins the national title0%Final Four <1% · projected 22-9
Net rating+17.9Rank 44 of 363 · offence 39, defence 61
Season outlook
- Projected record
- 22-9 (17 to 27 wins)
- Projected conference record
- 11-3
- Wins or shares the conference title
- 40%
- Wins the conference tournament
- 31%
- Average seed if in the field
- 8.8
- A 1 seed
- 0%
- Makes the field56%
- Round of 3224%
- Sweet 163%
- Elite Eight1%
- Final Four<1%
- Title game<1%
- Champion0%
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Where | Win chance | Projected | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 2 Nov | vs Davidsonrank 66 | Home | 80% | 85-73 | W 71-65 | Right |
| Fri 6 Nov6 PM ET | vs Rhode Islandrank 79 | Neutral | 69% | 70-64 | — | |
| Sun 8 Nov3:30 PM ET | at Belmontrank 122 | Away | 74% | 73-64 | — | |
| Thu 12 Nov7 PM ET | vs Michiganrank 3 | Home | 10% | 63-81 | — |
Rooting guide
- Fri 6 Nov: vs Rhode IslandA win: 58% · a loss: 53%+5 pts
- Sun 8 Nov: at BelmontA win: 58% · a loss: 52%+5 pts
- Thu 12 Nov: vs MichiganA win: 62% · a loss: 56%+6 pts
Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.
Players
| Player | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Rating | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mia BroomG | 1 | 36.0 | 19.0 | 4.0 | 6.0 | +4.1 | +4.1 |
| Fliss HendersonG | 1 | 32.0 | 5.0 | 10.0 | 7.0 | +3.1 | +3.1 |
| Riley WeissG | 1 | 31.0 | 18.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | +7.2 | +5.3 |
| Hilke FeldrappeF | 1 | 29.0 | 7.0 | 6.0 | 1.0 | +2.1 | +2.3 |
| Mary Ashley StevensonF · transfer from Stanford | 1 | 27.0 | 20.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | +2.3 | +2.2 |
| Nasi SimmonsG | 1 | 20.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | +5.1 | +2.6 |
| Eirny ErinughaF | 1 | 10.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | +1.7 | +0.7 |
| Chloe DixG | 1 | 7.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −0.5 | +0.2 |
| Mathis DritzF | 1 | 5.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −0.5 | +0.1 |
| Alicia MitchellF | 1 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +2.2 | +0.2 |
Style and luck
Every teamThe Four Factors adjusted for opponents
| Offence | Defence | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin | 45.3%rank 83 | 45.2%rank 262 | 44.6% |
| TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin | 23.4%rank 100 | 22.2%rank 341 | 23.9% |
| Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin | 31.1%rank 340 | 34.4%rank 281 | 33.5% |
| Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin | 19.8%rank 253 | 20.8%rank 258 | 20.4% |
Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.
Luck so far
- Wins against the pre-game chances
- 1.0 won, 0.8 expected (+0.2)
- Opponents' three-point shooting
- +2.9 points a game (they shot 21.4%, league 28.3%)
- Opponents' free throws
- +0.9 points a game
- Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime
- None yet
Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.
Rating this season
- Preseason net rating
- +20.1
- Last season's net rating
- +23.0
- Last season's minutes returning
- 71%
- Transfers in, weighted by minutes
- +1.3
- Change since preseason
- −2.2
- Offence, points per 100 possessions
- 103.4 (rank 39)
- Defence, points allowed per 100
- 85.5 (rank 61)
- Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes
- 72.8 (rank 203)
- Schedule so far, opponents' average
- +13.3 (rank 65)