Probable StatsCollege basketball, rated
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Updated Thu 5 Nov, 7:19 PM ET

Scores, schedules and lines from ESPN; past seasons from sportsdataverse. Not affiliated with any team, league or bookmaker.

Yale Bulldogs

Women's · Ivy League · 1-0, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Makes the tournament<1%From 20,000 simulated seasons
Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 14-16
Net rating−8.7Rank 218 of 363 · offence 228, defence 228

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons
Projected record
14-16 (9 to 19 wins)
Projected conference record
3-11
Wins or shares the conference title
<1%
Wins the conference tournament
<1%
Average seed if in the field
—
A 1 seed
0%
  1. Makes the field<1%
  2. Round of 32<1%
  3. Sweet 160%
  4. Elite Eight0%
  5. Final Four0%
  6. Title game0%
  7. Champion0%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game
DateOpponentWhereWin chanceProjectedResultPick
Mon 2 Novvs Elmsnot Division IHome——W 111-38
Fri 6 Nov6 PM ETvs Saint Francisnot Division IHome———
Tue 10 Nov7 PM ETat Loyola Marylandrank 266Away46%62-64—

Rooting guide

Chance of the conference title now: <1% · the next 7 days
  1. Tue 10 Nov: at Loyola MarylandA win: <1% · a loss: <1%0 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement
PlayerGamesMinutesPointsReboundsAssistsRatingValue
Helena KeaneG121.023.010.02.0−1.4+0.3
Lea VukicG120.022.013.02.0−1.4+0.3
Marisa ChapmanG119.010.010.03.0−1.8+0.1
Cloe VecinaG · transfer from Oregon St116.04.01.03.0−0.8+0.4
Hannah WassermanG116.08.03.01.0−3.1−0.3
Luisa VydrovaF115.04.06.03.0−0.7+0.4
Kasey DaveyF115.05.07.01.0−1.4+0.2
Dora KastlF113.02.09.02.0−1.6+0.1
Ciniya MooreG112.017.02.00.0−0.8+0.3
Ke'iara OdumeG111.05.01.01.0−4.5−0.5
Katie DiaoG111.02.02.03.0−1.3+0.2
Magdalena SchmidtG110.00.01.00.0−3.2−0.2
Lucy LynnG18.02.00.00.0−1.2+0.1
Maddie SmithG18.01.03.03.0−1.2+0.1
Olivia KimG15.06.03.01.0−2.9−0.1

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

OffenceDefenceLeague
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin44.7%rank 13744.7%rank 13244.7%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin23.8%rank 14423.8%rank 12623.8%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin33.5%rank 13733.5%rank 13333.5%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin20.5%rank 12720.5%rank 13920.5%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime
None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team
−10−7.5−5−2.50+2.51 NovNow−8.7−10−7.5−5−2.50+2.51 NovNow−8.7
Preseason net rating
−8.7
Last season's net rating
−12.9
Last season's minutes returning
84%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes
+0.4
Change since preseason
0.0
Offence, points per 100 possessions
86.2 (rank 228)
Defence, points allowed per 100
94.9 (rank 228)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes
73.1 (rank 183)
Schedule so far, opponents' average
—

Ivy League by rating

8 teams
#TeamRecordConferenceNetOffenceDefenceNational rank
1Princeton1-00-0+20.3105.985.537
2Columbia1-00-0+17.9103.585.643
3Harvard0-10-0+15.399.083.759
4Pennsylvania1-00-0+5.494.489.099
5Brown0-10-0−4.388.592.7185
6Cornell0-10-0−6.685.692.2200
7Yale1-00-0−8.786.294.9218
8Dartmouth1-00-0−12.381.994.2259