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Updated Thu 5 Nov, 6:10 PM ET

Scores, schedules and lines from ESPN; past seasons from sportsdataverse. Not affiliated with any team, league or bookmaker.

Women's rooting guide

What each game this week does to every team's chances, from 20,000 simulated seasons.

Updated Thu 5 Nov, 6:10 PM ET

Your team's guide

Every team page has its own guide: its games this week, what a win or a loss does to its chances, and the other games to root in.

The games that matter most this week

Points of tournament chances that change hands, summed over every team
DateGameAt stakeBiggest swings (if the home team wins)
Sun 8 NovPrinceton vs Murray StateMurray St wins 24%17Princeton −9; Murray St +8
Tue 10 NovVillanova at PrincetonPrinceton wins 68%16Villanova −12; Princeton +4
Sun 8 NovWest Virginia at Georgia TechGeorgia Tech wins 33%16West Virginia −10; Georgia Tech +6
Mon 9 NovCreighton at North Dakota StateN Dakota St wins 56%15Creighton −11; N Dakota St +3
Wed 11 NovColorado at San Diego StateSan Diego St wins 50%15Colorado −9; San Diego St +6
Fri 6 NovPrinceton at RichmondRichmond wins 47%14Princeton −8; Richmond +6
Sun 8 NovRice at RichmondRichmond wins 68%14Rice −8; Richmond +6
Thu 5 NovVirginia at DavidsonDavidson wins 55%13Virginia −10; Davidson +3
Sun 8 NovJames Madison at Virginia TechVirginia Tech wins 83%12Virginia Tech +7; James Madison −5
Thu 12 NovMiddle Tennessee at TennesseeTennessee wins 98%12MTSU −7; Tennessee +5
Sun 8 NovGeorge Mason at MarylandMaryland wins 97%12George Mason −10; Maryland +2
Wed 11 NovLiberty at NC StateNC State wins 96%12Liberty −7; NC State +5
Fri 6 NovRhode Island vs ColumbiaColumbia wins 72%11Rhode Island −6; Columbia +5
Thu 12 NovSouth Carolina at ClemsonClemson wins 4%11Clemson +11; South Carolina 0
Thu 12 NovArizona at UCLAUCLA wins 98%10Arizona −9; UCLA +1
Thu 12 NovNorthern Iowa at IowaIowa wins 99%10Iowa +5; Northern Iowa −5
Sun 8 NovSan Francisco vs CaliforniaCalifornia wins 94%10California +5; San Francisco −5
Thu 5 NovPacific at WashingtonWashington wins 99%9Washington +6; Pacific −3
Thu 5 NovPortland at BYUBYU wins 89%9Portland −6; BYU +3
Thu 12 NovSouth Florida at FloridaFlorida wins 74%9South Florida −6; Florida +3
Sun 8 NovAlabama at TulaneTulane wins 15%9Alabama −6; Tulane +3
Thu 5 NovGeorge Washington at West VirginiaWest Virginia wins 98%9G Washington −7; West Virginia +1
Sun 8 NovRhode Island vs South FloridaSouth Florida wins 53%8South Florida +5; Rhode Island −3
Sun 8 NovPortland at Montana StateMontana St wins 84%8Portland −8; Montana St 0
Wed 11 NovOregon at VermontVermont wins 11%8Oregon −5; Vermont +3

Each effect isolates the result itself: the simulation compares seasons by the luck of that one game, so an upset does not also count as evidence that the loser was weak all along.