Richmond Spiders

Women's · Atlantic 10 Conference · 1-0, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: vs Princeton · Fri 6 Nov, 6 PM ET

Princeton52%48%Richmond

Projected 69-70 · Game page

Makes the tournament41%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 10.9

Wins the national title0%Final Four <1% · projected 26-7

Net rating+13.8Rank 64 of 363 · offence 47, defence 88

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 26-7 (21 to 31 wins)
Projected conference record: 14-4
Wins or shares the conference title: 28%
Wins the conference tournament: 22%
Average seed if in the field: 10.9
A 1 seed: 0%

Makes the field41%
Round of 3210%
Sweet 161%
Elite Eight<1%
Final Four<1%
Title game0%
Champion0%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Mon 2 Nov	at Charlotterank 191	Away	81%	85-72	W 83-71	Right
Fri 6 Nov6 PM ET	vs Princetonrank 37	Home	48%	69-70	—
Sun 8 Nov2:30 PM ET	vs Ricerank 69	Home	67%	69-64	—
Thu 12 Nov6 PM ET	vs Old Dominionrank 169	Home	92%	77-58	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 41% · the next 7 days

Fri 6 Nov: vs PrincetonA win: 44% · a loss: 38%+6 pts
Sun 8 Nov: vs RiceA win: 42% · a loss: 37%+5 pts
Thu 12 Nov: vs Old DominionA win: 41% · a loss: 37%+4 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Ally SweeneyG	1	37.0	22.0	4.0	4.0	+5.7	+5.2
Aneisha ScottG	1	37.0	30.0	5.0	5.0	+2.6	+3.1
Ava PersichettiG	1	34.0	8.0	1.0	4.0	+3.8	+3.6
Josie FontanaF	1	29.0	10.0	8.0	2.0	+0.1	+1.2
Arisa IharaF	1	21.0	3.0	5.0	2.0	+0.3	+0.9
Rayne WrightG	1	16.0	6.0	2.0	0.0	+4.1	+1.8
Shaneka CampbellF	1	12.0	0.0	1.0	1.0	+2.6	+1.0
Kate SchindlerG	1	7.0	2.0	0.0	0.0	+0.7	+0.3
Bridget RifenburgG	1	4.0	1.0	0.0	0.0	+0.8	+0.2
Payton RichardG	1	2.0	1.0	0.0	1.0	+2.1	+0.1
Alexandra VandiverF	1	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	+0.8	+0.1

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	48.5%rank 2	45.4%rank 270	44.7%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin	23.5%rank 119	23.8%rank 122	23.8%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin	33.2%rank 252	31.6%rank 38	33.5%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin	21.5%rank 66	19.8%rank 109	20.5%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 1.0 won, 0.8 expected (+0.2)
Opponents' three-point shooting: −8.6 points a game (they shot 44.4%, league 28.5%)
Opponents' free throws: −1.5 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: +14.3
Last season's net rating: +23.8
Last season's minutes returning: 36%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: −0.5
Change since preseason: −0.5

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 102.0 (rank 47)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 88.2 (rank 88)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 71.8 (rank 315)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: −5.3 (rank 163)

Atlantic 10 Conference by rating

14 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Saint Joseph's	0-0	0-0	+15.2	100.6	85.3	60
2	Richmond	1-0	0-0	+13.8	102.0	88.2	64
3	Davidson	0-1	0-0	+13.3	99.0	85.7	66
4	Rhode Island	0-1	0-0	+9.7	96.2	86.6	79
5	George Mason	1-0	0-0	+8.4	97.0	88.5	86
6	George Washington	1-0	0-0	+0.6	91.7	91.1	135
7	Dayton	0-0	0-0	−0.6	91.7	92.3	145
8	VCU	1-0	0-0	−2.2	86.8	89.0	166
9	La Salle	0-1	0-0	−2.7	89.1	91.8	168
10	Fordham	2-0	0-0	−3.0	86.4	89.4	174
11	Saint Louis	0-1	0-0	−6.2	89.4	95.7	199
12	St. Bonaventure	1-0	0-0	−7.2	86.8	94.0	206
13	Duquesne	0-1	0-0	−8.7	87.2	95.8	218
14	Loyola Chicago	1-0	0-0	−10.5	86.3	96.7	235