Old Dominion Monarchs

Women's · Sun Belt Conference · 2-0, 0-0 in conference · last W2

Next: vs Tennessee St · Sun 8 Nov, 2 PM ET

Tennessee St7%93%Old Dominion

Projected 76-56 · Game page

Makes the tournament2%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 12.6

Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 16-17

Net rating−3.3Rank 180 of 363 · offence 209, defence 128

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 16-17 (10 to 21 wins)
Projected conference record: 8-10
Wins or shares the conference title: 1%
Wins the conference tournament: 2%
Average seed if in the field: 12.6
A 1 seed: 0%

Makes the field2%
Round of 32<1%
Sweet 160%
Elite Eight0%
Final Four0%
Title game0%
Champion0%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Mon 2 Nov	at Central Michiganrank 207	Away	31%	77-84	W 62-58	Wrong
Thu 5 Nov	vs Virginia Statenot Division I	Home	—	—	W 69-55
Sun 8 Nov2 PM ET	vs Tennessee Staterank 331	Home	93%	76-56	—
Thu 12 Nov6 PM ET	at Richmondrank 66	Away	8%	59-77	—

Rooting guide

Chance of the conference title now: 1% · the next 7 days

Sun 8 Nov: vs Tennessee StateA win: 1% · a loss: 1%0 pts
Thu 12 Nov: at RichmondA win: 1% · a loss: 1%0 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Trinity VanceG · transfer from Delaware	2	30.5	11.5	5.0	3.0	−2.1	0.0
Dalanna CarterG	2	30.0	9.0	2.5	3.5	−1.7	+0.3
Mia DavisG	2	26.0	13.0	5.0	2.5	−1.6	+0.2
Shadasia BrackensF · transfer from Tarleton St	2	24.5	14.5	7.5	1.0	+2.1	+2.0
Jaida McDonaldF · transfer from Wichita St	2	18.5	4.5	5.0	0.5	−1.7	+0.2
Vanessa SepulvedaG	2	16.5	0.0	1.5	2.5	−1.4	+0.2
Riley StackF	2	16.0	4.0	5.5	0.0	+3.3	+1.6
Delaney SnyderC · transfer from Cincinnati	2	10.0	4.0	4.5	0.0	−0.3	+0.3
Landin KelleyF	2	8.5	2.0	2.5	0.0	−0.9	+0.2
Ar'Jayla ElderG	2	6.5	1.5	1.5	0.0	−0.8	+0.2
Monique PhoenixG	2	4.0	1.5	0.0	0.5	−0.7	+0.1
Talyah HarrisG	2	4.0	0.0	0.5	0.0	−0.7	+0.1
Monica BottleyG	2	3.0	0.0	0.0	0.5	−0.6	+0.1
Jamaya ThomasF · transfer from N Kentucky	1	2.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	−1.0	0.0

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	44.3%rank 240	40.9%rank 4	44.7%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin	24.6%rank 285	22.5%rank 320	23.9%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin	36.0%rank 19	34.2%rank 271	33.3%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin	20.5%rank 222	19.3%rank 69	20.8%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 1.0 won, 0.3 expected (+0.7)
Opponents' three-point shooting: +3.0 points a game (they shot 23.8%, league 28.6%)
Opponents' free throws: +1.3 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: 1-0

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

2 games played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: −5.5
Last season's net rating: +1.4
Last season's minutes returning: 17%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: −2.5
Change since preseason: +2.2

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 87.2 (rank 209)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 90.5 (rank 128)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 74.3 (rank 65)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: −7.4 (rank 193)

Sun Belt Conference by rating

14 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	James Madison	1-1	0-0	+16.9	98.5	81.6	49
2	Louisiana Tech	2-0	0-0	+6.2	94.4	88.2	93
3	Troy	2-0	0-0	+3.7	94.9	91.2	106
4	Coastal Carolina	2-0	0-0	+2.8	90.9	88.2	114
5	Marshall	1-0	0-0	+2.0	93.3	91.3	121
6	Arkansas State	0-1	0-0	+1.3	91.5	90.2	130
7	App State	2-0	0-0	+0.6	90.2	89.5	134
8	Southern Miss	1-1	0-0	−3.0	87.4	90.5	175
9	Old Dominion	2-0	0-0	−3.3	87.2	90.5	180
10	Georgia Southern	0-2	0-0	−5.3	87.2	92.5	188
11	South Alabama	1-0	0-0	−8.2	88.6	96.8	212
12	Georgia State	0-1	0-0	−9.8	89.3	99.1	231
13	Louisiana	1-0	0-0	−10.9	83.3	94.3	239
14	UL Monroe	1-1	0-0	−13.4	79.9	93.2	270