Coastal Carolina Chanticleers

Women's · Sun Belt Conference · 2-0, 0-0 in conference · last W2

Next: vs Jacksonville · Wed 11 Nov, 6 PM ET

Jacksonville27%73%Coastal

Projected 73-65 · Game page

Makes the tournament8%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 12.8

Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 19-13

Net rating+2.9Rank 112 of 363 · offence 145, defence 89

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 19-13 (14 to 25 wins)
Projected conference record: 11-7
Wins or shares the conference title: 7%
Wins the conference tournament: 7%
Average seed if in the field: 12.8
A 1 seed: 0%

Makes the field8%
Round of 320%
Sweet 16<1%
Elite Eight0%
Final Four0%
Title game0%
Champion0%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Mon 2 Nov	at Western Michiganrank 257	Away	65%	81-75	W 68-54	Right
Thu 5 Nov	vs Johnsonnot Division I	Home	—	—	W 103-54
Wed 11 Nov6 PM ET	vs Jacksonvillerank 146	Home	73%	73-65	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 8% · the next 7 days

Wed 11 Nov: vs JacksonvilleA win: 9% · a loss: 8%+1 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Olivia KlanacG	2	31.0	20.0	6.0	2.5	+0.9	+1.8
Anja DjukicG	2	31.0	3.5	3.0	6.0	−1.2	+0.6
Grace LeskoF	2	26.0	16.0	7.5	0.5	−0.7	+0.7
Tessa GradyF	2	25.0	13.0	3.5	1.0	+2.0	+2.0
Kamryn KitchenG · transfer from Arizona	2	22.0	7.0	2.0	2.0	+0.6	+1.1
Baylee LowderG	1	34.0	6.0	9.0	1.0	+0.2	+1.5
Tateyoina HarrisF	2	16.5	10.0	6.0	1.5	+3.7	+1.8
Caroline MullinsG	1	32.0	13.0	10.0	4.0	−0.3	+1.1
D'Yanis JimenezG	2	15.5	6.5	4.0	0.5	+1.2	+1.0

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	45.4%rank 90	44.1%rank 91	44.7%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin	22.3%rank 33	25.1%rank 37	23.8%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin	35.4%rank 36	29.3%rank 1	33.5%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin	18.8%rank 320	20.0%rank 120	20.5%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 1.0 won, 0.7 expected (+0.3)
Opponents' three-point shooting: +0.8 points a game (they shot 27.3%, league 28.5%)
Opponents' free throws: −0.5 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

2 games played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: +0.9
Last season's net rating: +3.6
Last season's minutes returning: 44%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: +0.4
Change since preseason: +1.9

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 91.0 (rank 145)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 88.2 (rank 89)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 75.1 (rank 39)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: −12.3 (rank 195)

Sun Belt Conference by rating

14 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	James Madison	0-1	0-0	+15.5	97.7	82.3	55
2	Louisiana Tech	2-0	0-0	+6.3	94.5	88.2	94
3	Troy	1-0	0-0	+3.7	95.0	91.2	108
4	Coastal Carolina	2-0	0-0	+2.9	91.0	88.2	112
5	Marshall	1-0	0-0	+2.1	93.4	91.3	120
6	Arkansas State	0-1	0-0	+1.4	91.6	90.2	127
7	App State	2-0	0-0	−0.3	90.1	90.4	144
8	Georgia Southern	0-1	0-0	−1.8	90.8	92.6	157
9	Old Dominion	1-0	0-0	−2.7	86.8	89.6	169
10	Southern Miss	1-0	0-0	−7.7	88.3	96.0	208
11	South Alabama	1-0	0-0	−9.0	88.0	97.0	220
12	Georgia State	0-1	0-0	−9.8	89.4	99.1	229
13	Louisiana	1-0	0-0	−10.9	83.4	94.3	238
14	UL Monroe	0-1	0-0	−13.3	80.0	93.3	273