Georgia State Panthers
Next: at UNC Asheville · Fri 6 Nov, 6:30 PM ETProjected 73-63 · Game page
Makes the tournament<1%From 20,000 simulated seasons
Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 10-20
Net rating−9.8Rank 229 of 363 · offence 171, defence 311
Season outlook
- Projected record
- 10-20 (5 to 15 wins)
- Projected conference record
- 5-13
- Wins or shares the conference title
- <1%
- Wins the conference tournament
- <1%
- Average seed if in the field
- —
- A 1 seed
- 0%
- Makes the field<1%
- Round of 320%
- Sweet 160%
- Elite Eight0%
- Final Four0%
- Title game0%
- Champion0%
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Where | Win chance | Projected | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 2 Nov | at Buffalorank 255 | Away | 35% | 77-82 | L 81-82 | Right |
| Fri 6 Nov6:30 PM ET | at UNC Ashevillerank 351 | Away | 76% | 73-63 | — | |
| Sun 8 Nov2 PM ET | vs Woffordrank 194 | Home | 54% | 69-68 | — | |
| Wed 11 Nov6 PM ET | vs Toccoa Fallsnot Division I | Home | — | — | — |
Rooting guide
- Fri 6 Nov: at UNC AshevilleA win: <1% · a loss: <1%0 pts
- Sun 8 Nov: vs WoffordA win: <1% · a loss: <1%0 pts
Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.
Players
| Player | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Rating | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grace LanierG | 1 | 40.0 | 32.0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | −1.2 | +0.7 |
| Kenaya KlintmanG · transfer from High Point | 1 | 36.0 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | −3.4 | −0.9 |
| Ana Oliveira DiasG | 1 | 26.0 | 9.0 | 3.0 | 8.0 | −2.0 | +0.1 |
| Aryelle StevensF | 1 | 26.0 | 15.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | −2.0 | +0.1 |
| Danaeja Romero Ah SamG | 1 | 24.0 | 7.0 | 5.0 | 1.0 | −2.0 | +0.1 |
| Aaliyah BaldwinG | 1 | 20.0 | 11.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | −1.9 | +0.1 |
| Mariah KnightF · transfer from Jacksonville | 1 | 11.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | −0.1 | +0.4 |
| Makennah AlexisG | 1 | 10.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | −1.6 | +0.1 |
| Jada CollinsF | 1 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | −1.4 | 0.0 |
| Aikaterini YfantopoulouG | 1 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −1.4 | 0.0 |
Style and luck
Every teamThe Four Factors adjusted for opponents
| Offence | Defence | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin | 47.3%rank 12 | 47.1%rank 347 | 44.7% |
| TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin | 21.7%rank 6 | 25.8%rank 16 | 23.8% |
| Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin | 31.2%rank 341 | 33.1%rank 105 | 33.5% |
| Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin | 19.8%rank 256 | 20.9%rank 265 | 20.5% |
Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.
Luck so far
- Wins against the pre-game chances
- 0.0 won, 0.3 expected (−0.3)
- Opponents' three-point shooting
- −0.9 points a game (they shot 30.8%, league 28.4%)
- Opponents' free throws
- −0.4 points a game
- Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime
- 0-1
Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.
Rating this season
- Preseason net rating
- −11.5
- Last season's net rating
- −7.6
- Last season's minutes returning
- 9%
- Transfers in, weighted by minutes
- −0.5
- Change since preseason
- +1.7
- Offence, points per 100 possessions
- 89.3 (rank 171)
- Defence, points allowed per 100
- 99.1 (rank 311)
- Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes
- 74.3 (rank 73)
- Schedule so far, opponents' average
- −12.2 (rank 191)
Sun Belt Conference by rating
| # | Team | Record | Conference | Net | Offence | Defence | National rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | James Madison | 0-1 | 0-0 | +15.4 | 97.6 | 82.2 | 56 |
| 2 | Louisiana Tech | 2-0 | 0-0 | +6.3 | 94.4 | 88.1 | 94 |
| 3 | Troy | 1-0 | 0-0 | +3.7 | 94.9 | 91.2 | 109 |
| 4 | Coastal Carolina | 2-0 | 0-0 | +2.8 | 90.9 | 88.1 | 112 |
| 5 | Marshall | 1-0 | 0-0 | +2.1 | 93.3 | 91.2 | 120 |
| 6 | Arkansas State | 0-1 | 0-0 | +1.4 | 91.5 | 90.1 | 128 |
| 7 | App State | 2-0 | 0-0 | −0.3 | 90.0 | 90.3 | 145 |
| 8 | Georgia Southern | 0-1 | 0-0 | −1.8 | 90.7 | 92.5 | 158 |
| 9 | Old Dominion | 1-0 | 0-0 | −2.8 | 86.8 | 89.5 | 170 |
| 10 | Southern Miss | 1-0 | 0-0 | −7.7 | 88.2 | 95.9 | 208 |
| 11 | South Alabama | 1-0 | 0-0 | −9.1 | 87.9 | 96.9 | 220 |
| 12 | Georgia State | 0-1 | 0-0 | −9.8 | 89.3 | 99.1 | 229 |
| 13 | Louisiana | 1-0 | 0-0 | −10.9 | 83.3 | 94.2 | 238 |
| 14 | UL Monroe | 0-1 | 0-0 | −13.3 | 79.9 | 93.2 | 273 |