Buffalo Bulls

Women's · Mid-American Conference · 1-0, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: at Youngstown St · Sat 7 Nov, 6:30 PM ET

Buffalo16%84%Youngstown St

Projected 60-74 · Game page

Makes the tournament<1%From 20,000 simulated seasons

Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 11-22

Net rating−12.2Rank 255 of 363 · offence 212, defence 310

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 11-22 (5 to 17 wins)
Projected conference record: 5-13
Wins or shares the conference title: <1%
Wins the conference tournament: <1%
Average seed if in the field: —
A 1 seed: 0%

Makes the field<1%
Round of 320%
Sweet 160%
Elite Eight0%
Final Four0%
Title game0%
Champion0%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Mon 2 Nov	vs Georgia Staterank 229	Home	65%	82-77	W 82-81	Right
Sat 7 Nov6:30 PM ET	at Youngstown Staterank 160	Away	16%	60-74	—
Thu 12 Nov6 PM ET	vs Sacramento Staterank 184	Home	44%	66-68	—

Rooting guide

Chance of the conference title now: <1% · the next 7 days

Sat 7 Nov: at Youngstown StateA win: 0% · a loss: <1%0 pts
Thu 12 Nov: vs Sacramento StateA win: <1% · a loss: <1%0 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Meg LucasF	1	37.0	6.0	8.0	7.0	−1.4	+0.6
Ella CorryG	1	33.0	17.0	4.0	2.0	−3.1	−0.6
Asia WilsonG · transfer from Holy Cross	1	32.0	11.0	3.0	7.0	−3.4	−0.8
Briana YoungG	1	29.0	5.0	7.0	3.0	−2.4	−0.1
Ava LaMonicaG	1	27.0	27.0	5.0	1.0	−2.3	−0.1
Ella WickstromG	1	25.0	6.0	2.0	2.0	−2.3	−0.1
Jadeah MarshallC	1	17.0	10.0	1.0	0.0	−2.1	0.0

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	47.1%rank 17	47.4%rank 355	44.7%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin	25.8%rank 348	21.6%rank 355	23.8%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin	33.1%rank 260	31.2%rank 22	33.5%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin	20.9%rank 99	19.9%rank 113	20.5%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 1.0 won, 0.7 expected (+0.3)
Opponents' three-point shooting: +3.4 points a game (they shot 24.0%, league 28.5%)
Opponents' free throws: −0.2 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: 1-0

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: −10.5
Last season's net rating: −18.3
Last season's minutes returning: 55%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: +0.1
Change since preseason: −1.7

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 86.8 (rank 212)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 99.0 (rank 310)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 74.8 (rank 47)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: −9.8 (rank 183)

Mid-American Conference by rating

12 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Miami (OH)	2-0	0-0	+9.2	91.8	82.6	81
2	Ball State	1-0	0-0	+7.9	97.1	89.2	88
3	Massachusetts	0-1	0-0	+0.6	91.2	90.7	138
4	Toledo	0-1	0-0	+0.2	89.4	89.2	140
5	Bowling Green	1-0	0-0	−0.9	90.1	91.1	149
6	Ohio	1-0	0-0	−2.0	87.5	89.5	161
7	Kent State	0-1	0-0	−3.1	91.3	94.4	176
8	Central Michigan	0-1	0-0	−5.4	86.3	91.7	192
9	Eastern Michigan	0-1	0-0	−10.1	86.6	96.7	232
10	Buffalo	1-0	0-0	−12.2	86.8	99.0	255
11	Western Michigan	0-1	0-0	−12.3	81.4	93.7	257
12	Akron	0-1	0-0	−13.2	87.2	100.3	270