Ball State Cardinals

Women's · Mid-American Conference · 1-0, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: vs High Point · Sat 7 Nov, 1 PM ET

High Point10%90%Ball State

Projected 80-62 · Game page

Makes the tournament31%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 12.8

Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 23-10

Net rating+7.9Rank 88 of 363 · offence 78, defence 107

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 23-10 (17 to 29 wins)
Projected conference record: 14-4
Wins or shares the conference title: 37%
Wins the conference tournament: 29%
Average seed if in the field: 12.8
A 1 seed: 0%

Makes the field31%
Round of 322%
Sweet 16<1%
Elite Eight<1%
Final Four0%
Title game0%
Champion0%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Mon 2 Nov	vs Arkansas Staterank 128	Home	86%	93-77	W 84-74	Right
Sat 7 Nov1 PM ET	vs High Pointrank 198	Home	90%	80-62	—
Thu 12 Nov8 PM ET	vs Louisvillerank 8	Home	7%	64-83	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 31% · the next 7 days

Sat 7 Nov: vs High PointA win: 31% · a loss: 31%0 pts
Thu 12 Nov: vs LouisvilleA win: 33% · a loss: 31%+3 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Grace KingeryG	1	36.0	33.0	6.0	0.0	+3.6	+3.9
Lilli BarnesG	1	30.0	18.0	15.0	7.0	−1.2	+0.6
Faith WalkerG · transfer from Duquesne	1	29.0	0.0	4.0	0.0	−2.8	−0.3
Tessa TowersF	1	26.0	17.0	13.0	0.0	+6.7	+4.4
Aniss TagayiG	1	25.0	5.0	3.0	4.0	+3.0	+2.5
Karsyn NormanG	1	23.0	2.0	2.0	2.0	+2.0	+1.8
Helen HolleyG · transfer from San Diego	1	14.0	6.0	2.0	0.0	−1.1	+0.3
Giorgia GoriniG	1	9.0	0.0	1.0	1.0	+1.6	+0.6
Zhen VerburgtG	1	8.0	3.0	1.0	1.0	+1.0	+0.5

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	44.7%rank 232	44.4%rank 115	44.7%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin	25.6%rank 341	23.2%rank 288	23.8%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin	34.6%rank 71	34.2%rank 266	33.5%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin	23.4%rank 17	22.2%rank 325	20.5%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 1.0 won, 0.9 expected (+0.1)
Opponents' three-point shooting: +10.6 points a game (they shot 18.9%, league 28.4%)
Opponents' free throws: +1.3 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: +10.3
Last season's net rating: +13.5
Last season's minutes returning: 69%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: −1.7
Change since preseason: −2.4

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 97.0 (rank 78)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 89.2 (rank 107)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 76.2 (rank 10)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: +1.4 (rank 110)

Mid-American Conference by rating

12 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Miami (OH)	2-0	0-0	+9.2	91.7	82.5	81
2	Ball State	1-0	0-0	+7.9	97.0	89.2	88
3	Massachusetts	0-1	0-0	+0.6	91.2	90.6	138
4	Toledo	0-1	0-0	+0.2	89.4	89.2	141
5	Bowling Green	1-0	0-0	−0.9	90.1	91.0	150
6	Ohio	1-0	0-0	−2.0	87.5	89.5	162
7	Kent State	0-1	0-0	−3.0	91.2	94.3	176
8	Central Michigan	0-1	0-0	−5.4	86.2	91.6	192
9	Eastern Michigan	0-1	0-0	−10.1	86.6	96.6	232
10	Buffalo	1-0	0-0	−12.2	86.8	99.0	255
11	Western Michigan	0-1	0-0	−12.2	81.3	93.6	256
12	Akron	0-1	0-0	−13.2	87.1	100.3	269